[Cambium]

Here's what I think...
Early thoughts on Sunday storm...

Snow starts falling Saturday Night, changes to Rain at one point Sunday, changes to snow Sunday night if enough moisture is around. ALL LIGHT STUFF. No wind blown snow. No heavy snow rates. No business closings. No Power outages. A light snowfall to put us in the mood. 1-4" across the state.

Still got 5 days. Anything can change.

Christmas Storm:

Still showing up and if we believed BOTH latest GFS and EURO, Santa wouldn't need to lube the Sled and nobody would be going anywhere Christmas day and we would be digging out instead of digging in the stockings.. What are the odds BOTH models show a blizzard? Want a picture of it for giggles?

[Csiko]

Originally Posted by Cambium

What are the odds BOTH models show a blizzard? Want a picture of it for giggles?

9 days away? Even if they do both show a blizzard, odds of it happening are still slim.

Wouldn't mind a white Christmas but I have plans Christmas day. :/

[clutchrider]

So much for a little bit of rain/passing shower. It's been raining in Wallingford since probably 8/9pm and definitely more than the .25" they said we could get up to.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Csiko

9 days away? Even if they do both show a blizzard, odds of it happening are still slim.

lol. Yup. The geek in me saw the image and jumped out of my seat. They can pick out a storm from 2 weeks out but details we'll never get a handle on until 3.

----------------

NWS Baltimore/D.C mentioning the Christmas storm.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
550 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE MAY BE YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON BY DAY 7. WILL BE GENERIC ATTM AS THERE/S A LOT OF WX TO GET THROUGH FIRST.

NWS NY - Snow north of Merritt Saturday night into Sunday, Rain at coast.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED. MAINLY SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AT THE COAST. GFS IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF DEPARTING THE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY...SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC SOLN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEN BACKED OFF A BIT WITH LOW PRES TRACKING UP THE COAST FROM THE SE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS UPPER FLOW IS PROBABLY TOO FLAT AND TAKING IT TOO FAR OUT TO SEA...BUT ALSO THINK THE 00Z EC IS TOO FAR W. SO HAVE COMPROMISED THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A 60/40 12ZEC/00ZGFS BLEND. THIS RESULTS IN LOW POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THEN...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE IMPACTS AS WELL. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT AT THIS TIME.

?????????????????? So it's ok to put all liquid event 7 days out but God forbid you even mention the word snow a week out. Frustrating. Give me a break.

[Mike 75]

Originally Posted by Cambium

lol. Yup. The geek in me saw the image and jumped out of my seat. They can pick out a storm from 2 weeks out but details we'll never get a handle on until 3.

----------------

NWS Baltimore/D.C mentioning the Christmas storm.



NWS NY - Snow north of Merritt Saturday night into Sunday, Rain at coast.



?????????????????? So it's ok to put all liquid event 7 days out but God forbid you even mention the word snow a week out. Frustrating. Give me a break.

Odds are precipitation is more likely to be rain than snow this time of the year. Especially at the shore. Plus, they really blew it on that Thanksgiving storm. They are probably a bit gun shy.

[Cambium]

Never really liked this guy but he does bring back childhood memories for some reason. I must of watched him do forecasts a lot growing up

Dreaming of a White Christmas - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog Weather Blog



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51Rx...ature=youtu.be

[Cambium]

Christmas Day storm continues to show a powerhouse...but for where?

Lets look at the latest GFS.

Storm comes from the gulf on Christmas Eve and heads towards the Great Lakes. North Carolina severe weather outbreak with this and torching temps for us with rain. The storm stalls over the great lakes and keeps strengthening!

Here is Christmas morning. A 959 BOMB over the lakes with blizzard conditions. COLD with snow flurries for us.

Here's a question... Did this update look at Climo or the Calendar? Why is showing up over the Great Lakes and not off the coast? It's just the way the flow is and how things happen, not what month it is.

Lets keep an eye on this...

[Cambium]

Latest 12z Canadian says ok 12zGFS, you stay over the midwest with your 958mb low Christmas, I will go off the coast of Maine.

Snowstorm Northern New England, All out Blizzard for Maine.

Wonder what the Euro shows. Maybe off the Mid Atlantic which is what we would need for a snowstorm in CT

[Csiko]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Latest 12z Canadian says ok 12zGFS, you stay over the midwest with your 958mb low Christmas, I will go off the coast of Maine.

Snowstorm Northern New England, All out Blizzard for Maine.

Wonder what the Euro shows. Maybe off the Mid Atlantic which is what we would need for a snowstorm in CT

Man, didn't they get wailed on for Thanksgiving too? Back to back snowy holidays without power... Here's hoping it's not so bad for them.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Wonder what the Euro shows.

Euro12z hr192 Christmas morning has a 962mb Bomb in similar spot as GFS12z just north of Michigan.

Looks like Mid West wins the model consensus today.

This size storm is going to horrible for travelers somewhere if it happens. What are the odds millions of people know there is a chance they will get stuck or have a delay from this storm?

We don't know if its happening or where! But it's pretty nuts to see them all show this huge storm.

Haven't seen this since Hurricane Sandy. All models agreeing on a HUGE storm.