12-20-2014, 07:11 AM
10,007 posts, read
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Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wilton2ParkAve
Let's look to recent history. How much snow did (or even cold) did we have before Christmas last winter? It was quite mild and snowless in December before we ended the season with 70-90" and then coldest temperatures since the mini ice age of the 70s.
Right..and just to clarify..Short and midterm patterns are very predictable and important to forecasting. Look at the pattern right now. Little arctic air and storms running to the west. This is a pattern that will make forecasting predictable for the next 10 days. But I defy anyone to tell me this pattern will last even 3 weeks let alone the whole winter. In 3 weeks we could have a negative tilt across the northeast, arctic air streaming in and snow..who knows?
12-20-2014, 07:39 AM
2,601 posts, read
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Reputation: 2395
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jp03
Fine ...then explain why all the cold snowy winter talk from the fall is out the window? Because the pattern CHANGED. And that is unpredictable or someone would have predicted it.
When you have a pattern entrenched you a higher than normal percentage chance of that pattern sticking around. When you say "unpredictable" do you mean not certain/not 100%? Then yes of course it's possible for the pattern to flip, it's simply less likely. All weather forecasts even 2 days out can be wrong! It's simply percentages. That's why they call it an inexact scienece. In new england, we tend to boom or bust in the amount of snow/cold we get. We flip/flop and we tend to have a pattern that lasts all season long. 95/96 for example...way above normal snowfall with low pressures coming off the coast with blocking on a weekly basis. This was the pattern. Then we had a super warm/snowless year a few years ago. This type of season long pattern DOES get entrenched over an entire season all the time.
12-20-2014, 08:03 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read
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Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wilton2ParkAve
Let's look to recent history. How much snow did (or even cold) did we have before Christmas last winter? It was quite mild and snowless in December
Say wha? Last year was 11th most snow 12/1 - 12/24 period.
History before Christmas... sure, lets do it. 3rd proof of stats here. Snowy December = snowy season.
Normal is 5"
Dec 1-24 2002: 9.0" . Season ended up Above
Dec 1-24 2003: 17.0" . Season ended up Below
Dec 1-24 2004: 5.0" . Season ended up Above
Dec 1-242005: 10.5" . Season ended up Above
Dec 1-24 2006: T" . Season ended up Below
Dec 1-24 2007: 6.1" . Season ended up Below
Dec 1-242008: 15.8" . Season ended up Above
Dec 1-24 2009: 13.4" . Season ended up Above
Dec 1-24 2010: 12.0 " . Season ended up Above
Dec 1-24 2011: 0" . Season ended up Below
Dec 1-242012: 7.8" . Season ended up Above
Dec 1-24 2013: 10.9" . Season ended up Above
Dec 1-24 2014 :
0.7 "
Since 2002 when December ended up with above normal snowfall, 7 of 9 had above normal seasons.
I went back to 1993 and only found 1 year that had below normal December and above normal season. (Dec 1993 1.9" Season 55"). 1 year in last 20!
12-20-2014, 09:32 AM
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Reputation: 1946
I did not have 10" of snow pre Christmas last year and I'm also above 4" thus far this month.
12-20-2014, 12:03 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,295 posts, read
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Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jp03
What happens today has nothing to do with what happens in a month..I stand by it. Now sure if you are in a blocking pattern then for a week or two that pattern will provide like weather. But that pattern in November, has nothing to do with what happens in January. it could remain in place? Sure.. it could move on out? Absolutely. But we have no way of predicting it,
You actually posted this twice.....
But I hear ya.....
12-20-2014, 12:17 PM
4 posts, read
2,451 times
Reputation: 12
All I can say is thank god for once the Tri-State/East Coast is having a "normal" winter for a change. I love that we have had only 0.7 inches of snow on the Connecticut coast so far
All the snow in 2010/2011 and last years big snow in Feb made me think I was living in the UP of Michigan or Maine (lol).
The East Coast is not the Midwest, MT West, or Great Lakes, ...this is what winter should be, a dusting of snow now and then that melts quick and daily highs in the 3 winter months above freezing.
I'll be in Ft. Lauderdale after the 25th of December and be back by January 20th....so half of winter is already gone for me and I'm loving it
It looks like now no chance of snow for Christmas in the NYC/CT/NJ area....and I love it!.
12-20-2014, 12:26 PM
2,601 posts, read
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Reputation: 2395
Quote:
Originally Posted by
41north
All the snow in 2010/2011 and last years big snow in Feb made me think I was living in the UP of Michigan or Maine (lol).
The East Coast is not the Midwest, MT West, or Great Lakes, ...this is what winter should be, a dusting of snow now and then that melts quick and daily highs in the 3 winter months above freezing.
Hardly....the UP of michigan in the keewenaw averages 200+inches of snow a year. What was our seasonal snowfall total in 2011? 70 something inches? Average for snowfall is 40's for inland CT and upper 20s right on the coast and around 80 inches in the nw hills high elevation.
12-20-2014, 12:53 PM
10,007 posts, read
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Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
You actually posted this twice.....
But I hear ya.....
LOL... My voice must be heard!
12-20-2014, 12:56 PM
10,007 posts, read
11,158,193 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
41north
All I can say is thank god for once the Tri-State/East Coast is having a "normal" winter for a change. I love that we have had only 0.7 inches of snow on the Connecticut coast so far
All the snow in 2010/2011 and last years big snow in Feb made me think I was living in the UP of Michigan or Maine (lol).
The East Coast is not the Midwest, MT West, or Great Lakes, ...this is what winter should be, a dusting of snow now and then that melts quick and daily highs in the 3 winter months above freezing.
I'll be in Ft. Lauderdale after the 25th of December and be back by January 20th....so half of winter is already gone for me and I'm loving it
It looks like now no chance of snow for Christmas in the NYC/CT/NJ area....and I love it!.
There is a 1 in 4 chance of snow on the ground Christmas. A 1 in 6 or more chance of actually seeing snow fall that day. We dont live in a snow belt here..lets stop acting like we do. Tomorrow starts winter..why are we acting like the season so far is so warm? Temps have been pretty much averaging to normal. One snow and we go to normal for snow at the coast. Hopefully you'll come back to zero degrees and a nice snowstorm.
12-20-2014, 01:26 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read
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Funny seeing some people claim Climo is the way to see things yet they ignore the "history" of patterns.
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People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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But I hear ya..... 
The East Coast is not the Midwest, MT West, or Great Lakes, ...this is what winter should be, a dusting of snow now and then that melts quick and daily highs in the 3 winter months above freezing.
