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Old 02-06-2015, 10:24 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619

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Ok... Here's GFS12z. 4 images to compare...

First....... Monday 10am. Notice 3 things...

1. Precip north of thick blue line = snow.

2. Storm over Maryland about to head off the coast.

3. High pressure in Eastern Canada IS THE KEY to marginal areas like here whether Cold Air Damming will be strong enough to give us ICE or that HP is too far north Monday to give us rain/snow mix.



Second... Data for Chicopee, MA at the CT/MA border..

1. Precip column starts Saturday lunchtime continues all the way to Monday night. Light stuff over weekend and on and off but Monday is the snowier day of the next 4 days. 0.70" qpf of all snow Monday alone = 6-9" there says the GFS

2. Temps continue to bottom out next week




Third.........Danbury, CT ...

1. 0.67" qpf Monday alone, before that pretty much just snow showers Saturday/Sunday. Nothing on Tuesday.

2. Notice the 850mb temps Monday 12z(7am), pops above freezing with surface still at freezing. ICE issues. (UGH!)

This is because it trended north otherwise it would stay cold enough for all snow .



Forth. ... Atantic City

1. Very little Precip (too far south)

2. Warm enough for rain.


 
Old 02-06-2015, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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20°F with sun. Nothing melting at all, not even the Icicles are dripping. Snowpack remains at 13" with 2-5 foot piles around and 10-20 foot piles in parking lots.

4° at 8am, 20° at 1pm. 16 degree rise in 5 hours.

Beautiful Cold Clouds over the Atlantic where it's in the single digits F° at 5000 feet..

1pmEST surface Temps here

 
Old 02-06-2015, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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Oh... and once again... No warmup in sight. We'll go past Mid February now without a thaw.

GFS hints at the beginning of a warmup after the 20th. (above freezing, no 40s)
 
Old 02-06-2015, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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You know how you say "on that note"?? Well, let me do the reverse....

Time to dig out the stack of Cherrys... because.....





Here's what the GFS says for Max temps 1-7pm Friday..... Saturday.... & Sunday next week.





This would be an extreme for February and maybe winter for some spots.

The coldest Max for Bridgeport ever recorded for month of February was 12°F in 1958. It's showing 4, 10, & 10 here.

Windsor Locks failed to warm past 0°F in February 1943 & 1918

Boston failed to warm past 3°F in 1934.
 
Old 02-06-2015, 01:43 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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Last winter we had breaks, this winter no. (since Dec 30th we havent)

Last time Bridgeport had a max temp of 3+ above normal for 3 days in a row was end of December.

Last time we had an above normal max was Jan 25th

Only 7 times the max has been above normal since January 6th.

Last winter we had a thaw from Jan 11 to Jan 18 being in the 40s and 50s. Not this year. No thaw yet.
 
Old 02-06-2015, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,292 posts, read 18,872,835 times
Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
You know how you say "on that note"?? Well, let me do the reverse....

Time to dig out the stack of Cherrys... because.....





Here's what the GFS says for Max temps 1-7pm Friday..... Saturday.... & Sunday next week.





This would be an extreme for February and maybe winter for some spots.

The coldest Max for Bridgeport ever recorded for month of February was 12°F in 1958. It's showing 4, 10, & 10 here.

Windsor Locks failed to warm past 0°F in February 1943 & 1918

Boston failed to warm past 3°F in 1934.
I think it might be among the top 10 (especially for modern tops), but I'm not buying it yet, even though it is kind of exciting.

Only time since that historic February in 1934 that Central Park had a high temperature in the single numbers was on January 21, 1985, a very historic day in and of itself with subzeros all the way down to Atlanta! And it just made it (9 degrees as a high after a low of -2).

Also, it being mid-February makes me think the chances of something THAT historic are pretty low (though the 1943 day at BDL was on Feb. 15......it actually has the 3rd coldest low temperature in NYC history at -8 and is the last time they had a low below -2).
 
Old 02-06-2015, 01:52 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
Nice graphics from PamelaWBZ4 showing the snow totals Day by Day Sat-Tues.

Monday to be the snowiest of the days as I said a million times already. LOL

 
Old 02-06-2015, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,292 posts, read 18,872,835 times
Reputation: 5126
NWS trending back to ice on Monday even in NYC......
 
Old 02-06-2015, 01:56 PM
 
2,668 posts, read 4,493,841 times
Reputation: 1996
I'd like all those lines to come further south. A nice 8-16" to cap off any call it a season, but from the looks I'll be bringing my laptop home tonight.
 
Old 02-06-2015, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Trumbull, CT
302 posts, read 295,567 times
Reputation: 123
Wow, for the SW corner (me!) this has really turned into a non-event.....hopefully.
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