[Cambium]

Upton mentions what I said yesterday.. Don't get scared of the "total" amount although its not to be ignored and can fall in a short time. This is a different senaro than "a storm". Its like what we had this morning but continuous for couple days.

COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN STALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL THEN HEAD NORTHEAST
PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 8"+ OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL FALL OVER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SNOW...

QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER WE RECEIVE 8"+ IN A 24 HOUR
PERIOD TO CONSIDER WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES IF IT FALLS IN
A PERIOD LONGER THAN 24 HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF...AS
THE 00Z GFS HAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH LESS QPF THAN THE 12Z ECMWF.
THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE H5 TROUGH...WHICH IS WEAKER
IN THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKER SURFACE
LOW. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THIS TROUGH FROM RUN TO RUN IN
BOTH MODELS. MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE.

[Cambium]

How in the world can both models continue to show this intense cold coming as if we're just getting into the thick of winter? Lets go over the 12z Euro

Windsor Locks,CT -- BDL. Normal Max 36F. Normal Low 19F

1. Look at the precip column showing extended period of snow. But not a ton each day!

2. Gets at or above freezing once next 10 days,

3. Stays in the single digits next Friday and Saturday

4. Says it will be below 0°F by 7pm Friday.

[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by Cambium

How in the world can both models continue to show this intense cold coming as if we're just getting into the thick of winter? Lets go over the 12z Euro

Windsor Locks,CT -- BDL. Normal Max 36F. Normal Low 19F

1. Look at the precip column showing extended period of snow. But not a ton each day!

2. Gets at or above freezing once next 10 days,

3. Stays in the single digits next Friday and Saturday

4. Says it will be below 0°F by 7pm Friday.

Next sat is nuts...I thought I was looking at celcius

[grecostimpy]

I was reading elsewhere that this could be the coldest Feb since 1934? Like once a century cold.

[Csiko]

Originally Posted by Cambium

How in the world can both models continue to show this intense cold coming as if we're just getting into the thick of winter? Lets go over the 12z Euro

Windsor Locks,CT -- BDL. Normal Max 36F. Normal Low 19F

1. Look at the precip column showing extended period of snow. But not a ton each day!

2. Gets at or above freezing once next 10 days,

3. Stays in the single digits next Friday and Saturday

4. Says it will be below 0°F by 7pm Friday.

Oh god, that's in Farenheit.

Wow.

[Mike 75]

How accurate have the forecast temps been when compared to the actual temps? I hit 40 yesterday and I didn't see any forecast that was even close to that number. I'm willing to bet the temps will not be as cold as forecast - we're less than a month away from meteorological spring.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mike 75

How accurate have the forecast temps been when compared to the actual temps? I hit 40 yesterday and I didn't see any forecast that was even close to that number. I'm willing to bet the temps will not be as cold as forecast - we're less than a month away from meteorological spring.

Was definitely forecasted to be near 40 yesterday. Not sure how it's been overall lately though. And yeah, let's not believe the exacts but know there's a strong polar plunge of temps next week.

I will be curious how close we get with the actual temps vs this far out though.

And yeah, I thought it was Celsius too. Lol

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Was definitely forecasted to be near 40 yesterday. Not sure how it's been overall lately though. And yeah, let's not believe the exacts but know there's a strong polar plunge of temps next week.

I will be curious how close we get with the actual temps vs this far out though.

And yeah, I thought it was Celsius too. Lol

It was but it wasn't supposed to then rise into the 40s overnight.....

I'm seeing some FB posts about models pushing the bulk of the precip north of us? Also (as perhaps verified by the -12 you show as a low for Valentine's Day for BDL), some talk of that super rare elusive BDR and NYC subzero low on that day.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

It was but it wasn't supposed to then rise into the 40s overnight.....

I'm seeing some FB posts about models pushing the bulk of the precip north of us? Also (as perhaps verified by the -12 you show as a low for Valentine's Day for BDL), some talk of that super rare elusive BDR and NYC subzero low on that day.

Forgot it was Valentines day. LOL Yeah, I just saw that, bulk stays north now. Doesn't drop the front south of us until Monday.

Euro12z Snow total through Tuesday lunchtime. Still shows 10" northern CT. 6"+ southern CT most falls on Monday.

Looking at BDL's data above 0.62" qpf of snow for 1am Monday to 1am Tuesday.

Temps in teens/20s at surface and 20s aloft. 7-9" Monday alone.

I think that's the most snow day of the stretch.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

How in the world can both models continue to show this intense cold coming as if we're just getting into the thick of winter? Lets go over the 12z Euro

Windsor Locks,CT -- BDL. Normal Max 36F. Normal Low 19F

1. Look at the precip column showing extended period of snow. But not a ton each day!

2. Gets at or above freezing once next 10 days,

3. Stays in the single digits next Friday and Saturday

4. Says it will be below 0°F by 7pm Friday.

Nutty. Who'd a seen this coming? Wait a minute ....lol

Seriously, if this cold plays out, it will definitely be the coldest first half of February we have ever seen. So amazing like a true winter wonderland out there.