[Cambium]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

I'm no expert, but I was under the impression the Euro has a better track record.

You're 100% correct. GFS has been unperforming big time this year. The temps got better but the upper air results have been horrible. Again with the last update only has the clipper moving in and doesnt phase with the southern Jet Stream. light snow.

GFS is horrible in the 3-6 day range I noticed which is the mid range for GFS. I call it the mid-range crisis cause it just loses it all the time. LOL

Here's with Sandy 6 days out.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Euro and other models continue to show this happening. The GFS stands alone in going out to Sea but looking back at history the GFS is known to do this.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Here was last nights update. Notice all models have it except the GFS bottom right. The GFS did not have the October Snowstorm in the 5-7 day range last year, this is whats concerning me.

[7express]

I wonder if anyone knows what's in store for Friday and Saturday. My weather channel app just says "snow flurries" for Friday with a 60% chance if precipitation which wouldn't seem like much, however we'll just have to wait and see.

[Cambium]

Great Write up on the EURO vs GFS.

Friday Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm | Tuesday 0z Model Analysis (Euro vs GFS) : GeoEnvironmental Atmosphere

Great Ending to that article

An analogy to how ridiculous this situation is the following:

Imagine that you are driving in a small car and suddenly come across a patch of ice, and lose control of your car. You begin to slide towards the edge if the road, but right as you are going to slide off the edge if the road (you are still sliding on the ice and do not have control), some magical force suddenly makes you go on your original path.
Secondly, the GFS is also showing a bias of shearing out the energy of the system, and is very progressive in nature.In response, the team cautions that the GFS has major errors, and we are discounting the solution.



ECMWF (EURO) – “European Synoptic Model”

• Steep Ridging
• Deep Trough
• Slower System
• Moderate to Heavy Snow Event

[Cambium]

As I posted that... the New Euro just out shows just 1-3" for everyone.

I wonder if they are sending more flights into the Pacific. I dont think the system entered the US yet. If it did, the models are trending towards a weaker storm now.

[Mixum]

now my weather channel app is saying snow fri+sat with potential significant accumulation

did gfs change or something?

[Cambium]

Putting aside the snow event for now... We all know here in CT / New England weather doesnt last long.

This should help you through this arctic blast.

A warmup is coming especially without deep blocking. In fact, models showing a big rainstorm for the Northeast and temps surging into the 40s and 50s next week.

Euro temps for next Thursday Morning

[mels]

Whoa...50s? I mean, that's better than single digit lows but something about the 50s in January doesn't seem right.

[Cambium]

January 25, 2013 Snowstorm Update...

Ummmmm ? I've never seen Taunton put out a snowmap this early. NWS Taunton, MA - KBOX - Storm Total Snowfall Graphic



If the storm goes south of us...that means more cold air... More cold air means higher snow ratios (fluffy snow).. higher snow ratios means you dont need a lot of liquid to make 4-6" of snow.

[Csiko]

Whoa. I dunno if I'd release a snow map this early. That's only setting a whole bunch of people up for disappointment.

[Cambium]

Wow its nice and cold out there. Wind chill values in the single digits and probably below zero in areas of Litchfield.


Temps in the teens and actually the lowest for the day right now. Not unusual for January around here I guess.