[dkv]

This warm weather is killing my ice!

[GraniteStater]

Interesting links Cambium. They went into bookmarks. If you check the 18Z GFS model you will see how truely strange the overall pattern is given the fact it is January. It looks like a surge of warm air coming straight from the Gulf on the backside of the Atlantic high pressure. Then, everything flips around and the West Coast ridge becomes much stronger/blocky and allows a huge arctic/cross-polar flow to develop into the Plains/Great Lakes- shifting eastward by the middle to end of the month. Thickness values look quite cold, on the order of 474-478 at 500mb. If anything like this verifies the end of the month will be very stormy/snowy for much of the eastern US. In the interim I would guess milder temperatures will be more common, so a January thaw appears likely.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

They usually dont post the graphic unless its worth it. NWS Taunton, MA - KBOX - Storm Total Snowfall Graphic
They mentioned it on their FB page. https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalW...ice.Boston.gov

Actually the OKX FB page is where I got the first graphic. But on BOX's own site I found the graphic I posted from them. Little as the snow will be anyway, I think the two offices disagree a little on it because the maps don't mesh (i.e. BOX shows no snow except for far eastern inland CT, northern RI and inland southeast MA, but OKX shows measurable for its whole forecast area).

Originally Posted by dkv

This warm weather is killing my ice!

Where is that picture? When I lived up in the Albany, NY area for a few years in the late 1980s I saw a lot of those scenes but I've rarely if ever seen them in the immediate NYC area or coastal CT (I guess it doesn't stay below 32 enough).

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by dkv

This warm weather is killing my ice!

Yeah, that is one cool looking rink! I love these scenes. I seen quite a few of backyard rinks in CT. I remembering building one many years ago and I forgot to level it and did it on grass. It didnt do well and then warm weather made me give up on it. LOL

This year seems to be good for frozen water. Midday temps staying below mid 30s so if it freezes good enough at night it will last during the day in shade.

But yeah, get ready to see it melt. 40s and rain not good for ice.

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Current radar might look busy but much of it is Virga (not making it to the surface). Dew points in the teens and 20s so its evaporating quick.

[Cambium]

Euro00z slows the 13th storm down and brings it on the 14th.

It brings the storm into the Great lakes then transfers energy to a coastal low close to Long Island. We've seen this multiple times this year with a transfer of energy. December 29th was one. But for snow we need the transfer to be done south of Long Island preferably around Virginia like last time.

On the latest update, North of I-84 sees snow.

[dkv]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Where is that picture? When I lived up in the Albany, NY area for a few years in the late 1980s I saw a lot of those scenes but I've rarely if ever seen them in the immediate NYC area or coastal CT (I guess it doesn't stay below 32 enough).

Guilford. We got lucky with the cold spell but now we don't want it to end.

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by dkv

This warm weather is killing my ice!

Is this the house on Rte 121 in Orange before you get to 34? If so, I live down the road just over 34. We always pass a house with a rink on the side of the house. Is this it?

[GraniteStater]

This looks like a March or April weather pattern to me. Severe weather outbreaks in the southern US and warm air flooding into the Great Lakes and Northeast on the backside of a 1032mb BERMUDA HIGH out in the Atlantic in January? Crazy! Weather patterns are definitely shifting dramatically with the warmer climate now. 12Z GFS is even worse if you want any type of persistent colder of snowy pattern to develop. January is beginning to look like a blowtorch.

[GraniteStater]

Blowtorch:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NAM_f192wbg.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NAM_f264wbg.gif

Notice that the warm anomalies are twice as strong as the cold anomalies. This just looks like a repeat of the record setting warmth of 2012.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

This looks like a March or April weather pattern to me. Severe weather outbreaks in the southern US and warm air flooding into the Great Lakes and Northeast on the backside of a 1032mb BERMUDA HIGH out in the Atlantic in January? Crazy! Weather patterns are definitely shifting dramatically with the warmer climate now. 12Z GFS is even worse if you want any type of persistent colder of snowy pattern to develop. January is beginning to look like a blowtorch.

I agree with everything here. We've seen some wild swings. I'm pretty sure a Warmer planet has those and even worse. Just makes sense. I'm actually putting a graph together for BDR looking at the temperature comparison to last year. One thing I noticed is the major temp swings this year. Last year there was more consistancy with the warmth. This year we're going from being below normal to way above normal in a few days time