[Cambium]

Heavy Streamers off Lake Erie and Ontario now. My sister said its snowing heavy there right now just outside Cuba NY. I seriously doubt the snow will get this far (it usually never does) but we might see some clouds from the Lake Effect streamers today and maybe a few flurries. Pretty cool to look up and see clouds that were formed by Lakes. :-)

Like I said last week, it's going to be one of those Classic winter days where its really cold, with wind, and flurries flying around here and there. Especially for November.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Amazing change! Now NWS even showing chance of snow mixing in right down to the coast and NYC (just like your map). TV news last night even said there's about a 30-50% chance the storm trends so far south it goes "out to sea" and we get essentially nothing (which NWS is saying as well as right now they've put a 50% chance of anything happening and put this in their forecast for Mon. night all the way out to Thursday morning to cover their bets on timing).

.

They wont mention accumulations yet because it will depend on the track .

[wavehunter007]

NWS Upton seems to also be a bit confused, though they say just rain for all the coast:



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
629 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER NEXT
WEEK.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS THOUGH BY TUE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVG...REACHING TO RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING ALONG THE COAST...AND BELOW FREEZING OVER INLAND AREAS.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. WEAK WAA WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR HIGHS
DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

DIFFERING SOLUTIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TO HANDLE THE
NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS IN SLIGHT CHANCE POP MON NIGHT WITH AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...THEN CHANCE POP
DURING THE DAY ON TUE AND LASTING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY WENT WITH WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS INLAND AREAS...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN AT THE COAST. POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX OVER NYC WED EVENING
WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND EXACT
P-TYPE REMAINS LOW.

[wavehunter007]

I just checked the 8 - 14 day temperature prediction....and even I was a bit shocked!

While I do think temps in early December will be close to normal (not much above or below), this type of prediction likley proves even NOAA is all over the place as we get set to start winter in 5 days: They are calling for a WARMER than normal first week of December for much of the USA (including the East Coast/CT). Here in CT there is a 35% chance that temps will be warmer than normal the first week of December based on what they show:




My only guess as to why they are predicting warmer than normal conditions for much of the USA is there is no snowcover to our north and west. So air masses that come down from the southern Canada and through the upper Midwest, will warm as they head south and east toward us.

[Cambium]

New GFS gives 3-5" for NYC metro and in CT. Trace to 2" everywhere else and the immediate coast.

[Cambium]

Lake snow showers making it all the way down. Pretty cool.

NWS:

"With some lingering moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere across the Lower Hudson Valley and parts of interior SW Connecticut, a chance of flurries (indicated by the SW- in the graphic) exists late this afternoon and this evening. We are also expecting temperatures across our entire service area to fall below freezing tonight with 20s common (lowest inland), and near 30 in the city."


Radar and Wind Chill temps. Snowing in Western MA

[7 Wishes]

Even that's been inaccurate. Down in southern Westchester been seeing a lot of on and off flurries (was even in the northernmost Bronx for something a couple of hours ago and flurries were flying); ironically followed by a period of sun and clearing before it clouded up and flurried again!

[htfdcolt]

Saw some flurries up here in West Hartford too...despite the air temp at 41 F!

[Mixum]

In cambium we trust!

Good job as always!

[Cambium]

NAM model entering the range now. See below. Weak storm but cold air in place and absolutely cold at the layer above our heads.. Confidence growing this is a snowstorm for us even to the coast.

I'm sick of NWS being so conservative for the coast. Its like they havent learned their lesson yet and time and time again all of us here have seen the results. BUT..I have to protect myself and say track is everything. We all know a shift 50 miles West and the coast doesnt get snow.

Wednesday morning commute will be tricky.