[7 Wishes]

By the way, those flurries actually tied a daily snowfall record for Sikorsky Airport (Bridgeport/Stratford today), apparently there's never been more than a trace on this date, and the last time that even happened was in 1975!

[Cambium]

Which track do you prefer... Obvisouly this is why forecasts bust and prosper.. track can change last minute.

Looks like the "snow" will start Tuesday afternoon but the evening commute should be fine, then snow picks up overnight. Should clear by Thursday mid morning.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

By the way, those flurries actually tied a daily snowfall record for Sikorsky Airport (Bridgeport/Stratford today), apparently there's never been more than a trace on this date, and the last time that even happened was in 1975!

Good stat.. How about 2 snow events in the month of November? Joe Bastardi mentioning 1938 was the last time (not sure which location) he also mentioned the big hurricane that year too.

I'm beginning to think the theory of atmospheric memory is onto something.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Good stat.. How about 2 snow events in the month of November? Joe Bastardi mentioning 1938 was the last time (not sure which location) he also mentioned the big hurricane that year too.

I'm beginning to think the theory of atmospheric memory is onto something.

I was wondering (assuming "sticking" snow falls everywhere last week) when (if at all) was the last time 2 measurable November events fell (on the coast, I assume that inland (i.e. Hartford) it's not as rare....I know when I lived near Albany, NY for a few years two Nov. snow events were about as likely as unlikely in any given year)

[wavehunter007]

While the track of the low is still up in the air, one thing seems to be coming into focus - AFTER this week, temps will warm well above normal for much of the USA. If this is right (?) there is a 60% chance we in the Tri-State will have above normal temps the first week of December. They just released this today:





The longest range the WC goes out is 10 days....so we can't see beyond that. Still, they have highs the first week of December in the upper 40's and to mid 50's (55 F in Washington DC). By day 11 and 12, we could be looking at 65 F in Washington DC and near 60 F in NYC!!



So my guess is that any snow that might fall this week ( ?) will be very short lived based on what they are saying now.

[GraniteStater]

OZ NAM looks further OTS and 0Z GFS appears weak on this Tuesday system for New England. The models do seem to be having difficulty with these small waves and the jet stream phasing given the colder air upstream. I am not terribly impressed, but the Great Lakes region has been building up a bit of snowcover over the past few days. Further west, the Plains and Rockies continue the blowtorch mild pattern with lee troughing/chinook flow.

[Cambium]

I am trying to find out if this storm on the west coast got sampled and ingested in the overnight runs.

Big change is that they all show a flatter, weaker wave now. Just means colder air but less snow. It will still be an all snow event BUT.... the amount might be a lot less. So this might be a non messy event. I want to wait to see todays full runs to make that decision.

Heres the text output from the Euro which is the most reliable model. Notice the qpf amount is light. Basically flurries in Hartford, 1-2" snow for the coast. Weaker and South more is the reason.

Also note... These cold shots are not quick hitters. They are lasting a WHILE! Any warmup we get this winter will be quick in and out.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

OZ NAM looks further OTS and 0Z GFS appears weak on this Tuesday system for New England. The models do seem to be having difficulty with these small waves and the jet stream phasing given the colder air upstream. I am not terribly impressed, but the Great Lakes region has been building up a bit of snowcover over the past few days. Further west, the Plains and Rockies continue the blowtorch mild pattern with lee troughing/chinook flow.

Agree.

I not impressed with this system...and it appears that even the media hounds at outlest like the WC and AccuWeather are not either. My guess is that precip no matter where it falls will be light. I would expect temps to be only marginal cool enough for snow down here in the Tri-State area.

As far as what's ahead, maybe not blowtorch per sa, but all indications point to a warm early December in much of the USA. A week from today - there appears to be no cold weather even up in the Upper Midwest. Look at Minneapolis - the normal December high is 27 F (they are at 44 F). Closer to home NYC/Southern CT has a normal Dec high of around 43 F (they are at 48 F). My guess is early December (at least) will be at slightly wamer than normal...and could well turn out much warmer than normal (highs in the mid 50's on many days). I guess we'll know soon:

[Cambium]

Look what I found yesterday! LMAO. There were piles of snow in Danbury from 2 weeks ago.

[wavehunter007]

Here is the updated snowcover map of the USA...it looks like there is little snowcover anywhere in the USA right now: