Western States Megadrought intensifies - predictions for bad Fire Season and severe water shortages for Colorado (Center: agriculture, land)

[Mike from back east]

Another front page piece, this time on today's NY Times.

NYT is a paywall site but they do allow a few free views per month, at least they used to. Here's a free site that seems to have the same story.

Excerpts:

The megadrought in the American Southwest has become so severe that it’s now the driest two decades in the region in at least 1,200 years, scientists said Monday, and climate change is largely responsible.

The drought, which began in 2000 and has reduced water supplies, devastated farmers and ranchers and helped fuel wildfires across the region, had previously been considered the worst in 500 years, according to the researchers.

But exceptional conditions in the summer of 2021, when about two-thirds of the West was in extreme drought, “really pushed it over the top,” said A. Park Williams, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who led an analysis using tree ring data to gauge drought. As a result, 2000-2021 is the driest 22-year period since 800 A.D., which is as far back as the data goes.

[Vision67]

From that article: "Climate change also makes it more likely that the drought will continue, the study found. “This drought at 22 years is still in full swing,” Dr. Williams said, “and it is very, very likely that this drought will survive to last 23 years.”

Several previous megadroughts in the 1,200 year record lasted as long as 30 years, according to the researchers. Their analysis concluded that it is likely that the current drought will last that long. If it does, Dr. Williams said, it is almost certain that it will be drier than any previous 30-year period."

If that happens, how will the Southwest deal with it?

Here in California, we could always tap the ocean and do a desalination plant. Of course, that would be expensive water. But the Aussies in Perth did that and power it with solar power. The deserts in Arizona, Nevada, and California could be used to collect solar power.

Arizona could use Lake Mead as a giant capacitor to store solar power. Pump the water into the lake during the sunny days, let it out to run through the power house to create electricity at night.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by Vision67

From that article: "Climate change also makes it more likely that the drought will continue, the study found. “This drought at 22 years is still in full swing,” Dr. Williams said, “and it is very, very likely that this drought will survive to last 23 years.”

Several previous megadroughts in the 1,200 year record lasted as long as 30 years, according to the researchers. Their analysis concluded that it is likely that the current drought will last that long. If it does, Dr. Williams said, it is almost certain that it will be drier than any previous 30-year period."

If that happens, how will the Southwest deal with it?

Here in California, we could always tap the ocean and do a desalination plant. Of course, that would be expensive water. But the Aussies in Perth did that and power it with solar power. The deserts in Arizona, Nevada, and California could be used to collect solar power.

Arizona could use Lake Mead as a giant capacitor to store solar power. Pump the water into the lake during the sunny days, let it out to run through the power house to create electricity at night.

They're saying, it's been 22 yrs already, and could be expected to last 30. 8 more years to go, and it's over? Really?? What's going to make it magically stop 8 yrs from now?

They're assuming it's cyclical, because it has been in the past. But there are new factors affecting the global climate now, or intensifying factors, that weren't at play 1000 years go.

[Mike from back east]

I've read before that enough sunlight falls on AZ to power the whole nation; distribution and transmission loss keep it from reality.

Water from desalination plants is said to be costly, but if the sunlight were free, other than the cost of the solar panels, that might make a better economic case.

My favorite solution, which I've put out here now for at least ten years, is one or more pipelines from the Great Lakes and/or Columbia River. If we started doing that ten years ago we'd have it in place today, but the political will just isn't there, but once they decide how they and their pals can make a fortune on it then watch it happen.

I've seen articles in the past two years that Lake Michigan is overly full, but cannot find that article now, shame we can't be pulling that overload down to here. Worse, I recall that the states around the Great Lakes signed a compact about five years ago to never let there be a pipeline from there to here. So much for unity, eh.

[amattaro]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

I've read before that enough sunlight falls on AZ to power the whole nation; distribution and transmission loss keep it from reality.

Water from desalination plants is said to be costly, but if the sunlight were free, other than the cost of the solar panels, that might make a better economic case.

My favorite solution, which I've put out here now for at least ten years, is one or more pipelines from the Great Lakes and/or Columbia River. If we started doing that ten years ago we'd have it in place today, but the political will just isn't there, but once they decide how they and their pals can make a fortune on it then watch it happen.

I've seen articles in the past two years that Lake Michigan is overly full, but cannot find that article now, shame we can't be pulling that overload down to here. Worse, I recall that the states around the Great Lakes signed a compact about five years ago to never let there be a pipeline from there to here. So much for unity, eh.

“Give me your resources” is not “unity”.

[Pahn]

Originally Posted by amattaro

“Give me your resources” is not “unity”.

It honestly seems like smart governance. You don't preserve a resource by selling it off to the highest bidder.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Pahn

It honestly seems like smart governance. You don't preserve a resource by selling it off to the highest bidder.

Correct, the Great Lakes water compact is very good governance. The western US population increases are no longer sustainable given extreme climate change and weather pattern shifts regarding to available water supplies- now and in the future.

[NW Crow]

Diverting Columbia River water might be feasible IF it goes to norhwest farms and cities. But shipping, electricity and fish might not allow or allow much.

Pulling water out of the Missouri River for Rocky Mountains and Great Plains use might be feasible, especially in spring. Might even push some to west slope to supplement Colorado River capacity / use.

Great Lakes, I'd be open to it. Big, expensive, sensitive but possible. Look at all the interventions from last century considered "necessary". More probably will be eventually, agree with it or not.

[sammy87]

Ultimately ppl are going to have to reside in the mid west and south. The west just isnt sustainable for the population growth.

[Vision67]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

I've read before that enough sunlight falls on AZ to power the whole nation; distribution and transmission loss keep it from reality.

Water from desalination plants is said to be costly, but if the sunlight were free, other than the cost of the solar panels, that might make a better economic case.

My favorite solution, which I've put out here now for at least ten years, is one or more pipelines from the Great Lakes and/or Columbia River. If we started doing that ten years ago we'd have it in place today, but the political will just isn't there, but once they decide how they and their pals can make a fortune on it then watch it happen.

I've seen articles in the past two years that Lake Michigan is overly full, but cannot find that article now, shame we can't be pulling that overload down to here. Worse, I recall that the states around the Great Lakes signed a compact about five years ago to never let there be a pipeline from there to here. So much for unity, eh.

If whatever you want to do obeys the laws of physics and you have enough money, you can do anything.

Bringing water from sea-level areas such as Oregon or Michigan to high altitude Colorado would require quite a bit of energy but it could be done. I actually think the politics would be more difficult than the physics.

But before we do that, let's go after the low hanging fruit such as eliminating bluegrass lawns and golf courses.