Western States Megadrought intensifies - predictions for bad Fire Season and severe water shortages for Colorado (Mead: university, cost of)
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NOAA has called this a La Niña year which means a number of things but notably that "worsening drought conditions in the Southwest through the winter and potentially elevating the fire risk through the fall."
I read that story as well, Mike. The last thing we need is a La Niña year. It's like kicking a man when he's down, and climate change is doing exactly that to the Southwest. There's a great story about what's happening in the West in general and Colorado in particular just published in the blog, Big Pivots, reporting on the Colorado River District’s annual seminar in Grand Junction:
~snip~
Quote:
National publications this summer brimmed with stories about the distress of the Colorado River, especially after the Bureau of Reclamation on Aug. 16 issued a shortage declaration. Arizona is most immediately affected, but this is huge for the five other basin states, including Colorado...
Now there’s an awareness in the public of the brittleness of the hydraulic empire created in the 20th century in Southwest states, including Colorado. A decade, ago, there was hope that some big snow years like we had in the ‘80s and ‘90s would fill the reservoirs. We’ve had some big snow years, but the runoff doesn’t show it.
“I think at every level our folks who are paying attention to the science and the hydrology, there is an increasing sense of urgency in the Colorado River Basin, and it’s shared by folks on the ground today, from ranchers in the Yampa River Valley to farmers in the Uncompahgre Valley to major urban providers like Denver Water. We all recognize there is something very different going on than there was 10 years ago in the Colorado River,” he said. - Andy Mueller, the general manager of the Glenwood Springs-based River District)
“I think at every level our folks who are paying attention to the science and the hydrology, there is an increasing sense of urgency in the Colorado River Basin, and it’s shared by folks on the ground today, from ranchers in the Yampa River Valley to farmers in the Uncompahgre Valley to major urban providers like Denver Water. We all recognize there is something very different going on than there was 10 years ago in the Colorado River,” he [Mueller] said.
What is happening is complex but understandable. There is drought, as conventionally understood, but then the overlay of higher temperatures. The warmer temperatures cause more evaporation. They cause more transpiration from plants. More precipitation can overcome this, but particularly in Southern Colorado, there’s actually been less.
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The San Juan River—which originates in Colorado, near Pagosa Springs—had 30% less water in 2000-2019 at Bluff, Utah, as compared to 1906-1999. The decline of the Colorado River at Glenwood Springs was 6%.
Colorado and the rest of the western states which depend upon the Colorado River is going to have to make some hard decisions in the very near future. We can't say that we didn't see this one coming.
This is completely anecdotal, but one thing that has stuck out to me is the fact that numerous streams and creeks nearby are still flowing. In other years where we've had pretty heavy droughts, these same creeks or streams are usually dried up by late summer.
This is completely anecdotal, but one thing that has stuck out to me is the fact that numerous streams and creeks nearby are still flowing. In other years where we've had pretty heavy droughts, these same creeks or streams are usually dried up by late summer.
Not sure where you're located, but early season snowfall has definitely contributed to stream and river flows here in the SLV. I've noticed the Rio flowing a bit fuller than it was a month ago, though not drastically. Could be a different situation elsewhere in the state, though.
The ongoing drought in Southwestern Colorado has been getting more attention in recent weeks (and months). It got front page coverage in the local paper, the Cortez Journal.*
Quote:
Water is being delivered to the town of Dove Creek this week to prevent a municipal supply shortage caused by the drought. The normal timing for water delivery from McPhee Reservoir to the town’s municipal storage and treatment plant was disrupted this year for the first time.
A 90% water shortage driven by a below-average snowpack caused the Dove Creek Canal to dry up in July instead of in October, when it normally tops off the town’s municipal reservoir. Without the solution, the town would run out of water in February, said Chadd Dagan, manager of the Dove Creek Public Works Department.
*If you are reading this on November 3, 2021, the story is behind a paywall. The Journal's paywall usually only lasts for a month, so if you are reading this on December 3rd or later, then you should be able to see the entire story.
From the National Public Radio (NPR) broadcast of November 2, 2021:
Colorado's Dolores River should be raging through canyons — instead it's nearly dry
Here's the first part of transcript from the podcast. It's a little long, but it's a worthwhile read:
~snip~
Quote:
Drought conditions exacerbated by climate change is forcing tough choices for the water-starved regions of southwest Colorado, where farmers count on irrigated lands for farming and industry.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
You do not have to go to a United Nations conference in Scotland to see the effects of climate change.
NOEL KING, HOST:
Right. Many parts of the United States have been experiencing it for years. As fires, droughts and floods get worse, it gets easier for scientists to link those events to a warming planet.
INSKEEP: So as world leaders talk this week of what they might do, we are exploring what is in two parts of the United States. Yesterday, Rachel took us to South Carolina's much-too-low country, which has too much water. A Martinez visited southwestern Colorado, which doesn't have enough.
JIM WHITE: We should not be standing where we are right now. We're standing in the riverbed.
A MARTINEZ, BYLINE: This is Jim White, an aquatic biologist for Colorado Parks & Wildlife. We met up with him in the Dolores River. We're in a canyon surrounded by tall red cliffs carved out by centuries and centuries of flowing water.
WHITE: We should be hearing a river flowing through the cobble. The Dolores River is characterized by lots of large bouldery (ph), sharp sandstone rocks, and it's steep. And it has some of the most infamous rapids in the country, and you would hear the rushing water running through these stones. And right now, it's a gorgeous afternoon. We can hear the birds. But we're standing in the river, and we can't hear the river.
A MARTINEZ: The river should be teeming with trout and other animals. The area we're in has been reduced to several small pools.
WHITE: Fish have been around and on the landscape and in these rivers for over a million years - we know that - up to 2 million years. These fish have evolved with low and high flows. So they can handle a certain amount of that. But what they can't handle is essentially a dry channel.
A MARTINEZ: So for you, is there that direct line, that direct link, climate change to what's going on?
WHITE: You know, I think there is. We're seeing shortages in terms of the amount of water being delivered downstream. And this is by far the lowest we've ever seen the Dolores River. So we are seeing this increased frequency in drought.
A MARTINEZ: The water from the river is used to irrigate thousands of acres of farmland downstream.
WHITE: The Dolores River is emblematic of water management across the West. Flows have been diverted out of this basin for 130 years. In 1890, the water community punched a hole through the divide and started sending water to the Montezuma Valley area. And as a result, what you see - and especially downstream - is just this river channel that is messed up (laughter). I can't say on radio what I really think of it, but it is messed up. It's really unfortunate and sort of tragic.
A MARTINEZ: Some of that tragedy is playing out about 40 miles south of the river at the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe Farm & Ranch Enterprise.
SIMON MARTINEZ: The water comes off the Dolores River into McPhee Reservoir, second-largest manmade reservoir in the state of Colorado. And it goes up, and you can see right up here is the edge of the canal, and that canal comes 39 miles to us from Dolores, Colo., down to the reservation.
A MARTINEZ: Simon Martinez is the manager of this massive farm of nearly 8,000 acres of land. During good times, they grow alfalfa, corn and graze 700 head of cattle while employing members of the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe. But looking at a map in his office, things are much different this year.
S MARTINEZ: This map consists of 110 pivot circles - gives you the acreage, 46, location.
A MARTINEZ: And a pivot circle is where the crop is grown.
S MARTINEZ: Yes.
A MARTINEZ: Think of those lush, green circles you see when you look out of an airplane's window while flying over farmland, each of those crop circles full of food being grown. We're looking at two maps of the farm, one for 2020 and one for 2021. And they're color coded. A colored circle means a planted field. A gray circle means a field is fallow, and there is nothing planted.
Simon, this first map you showed us from 2020, it's like a rainbow. There are so many different colors. It's...
S MARTINEZ: Everything is under water.
A MARTINEZ: Yeah. So I'm comparing them to the map from 2021, and that - I mean, it's all gray. It's almost all gray.
S MARTINEZ: Yes, sir. This year, there's eight pivots running out of 110. This one, there's 109 running out of 110. This is the effect of the drought.
A MARTINEZ: And regardless of how many pivots are running, the farm still needs to pay for the same amount of water that they're allotted by the state of Colorado whether they actually get it or not.
S MARTINEZ: The Ute Mountain Farm & Ranch Enterprise bill is over a half-a-million dollars a year. We have been able to pay that through the years, the last 17 years, regularly. It's an issue now because of what we're dealing with. Not that we've had to go this direction any time before - this is new ground for everybody because there was no crop. There was no income. There was no revenue.
A MARTINEZ: Simon had to lay off about half of his workers this year. The farm is only able to stay afloat because it's also the home of Bow & Arrow Foods, where Simon and his team mill corn for use in pasta, tortillas and other food. That income is currently paying the bills. Back upstream, we get another picture of the dire water levels at the McPhee Reservoir. It's a manmade lake near the city of Cortez surrounded by hills and trees. From a high overlook, you get a clear picture of the lines along the shore indicating where the water level used to be.
KEN CURTIS: We're only about 40% full.
A MARTINEZ: Ken Curtis is the manager of the Dolores Water Conservancy District, which sends water from the river for use downstream.
So normally, how high would the water be from where I would be looking at right now?
CURTIS: So you can see the tree line over there. All these islands out here would be under water.
A MARTINEZ: Wow.
CURTIS: And that canal out there should be under 67 feet of water.
A MARTINEZ: Ken makes no bones about why he thinks the water has been more scarce than usual lately, why it feels more troubling now than in years past.
CURTIS: We've always understood that there have been historic droughts. Having said that, we appear to be in a drought compounded by climate change. And so we don't know where the light at the end of the tunnel is. We can do one year. We can maybe struggle through a couple of years. But this isn't how it was built to operate under these hydrologic conditions. And we don't know how long that extends. So...
A MARTINEZ: So it's the unknown kind of the - part of it. You mentioned how there is drought. There - you know, that's just how this place operates. But compounded by climate change, it puts everyone kind of wondering - OK, what's next? What's going to happen next?
CURTIS: You worry that much more about next year. Normally, this lake could be about 40 foot higher. We'd know we have some supply in the bank for next year, and that's what we would build on with the natural snowpack and runoff. We have zero in the bank right now. Everything we're going to use next year is yet to fall from the sky. And so the risks are that much higher, and another year of drought will just compound the economic hardship of our farmers.
~ snip
This story is right on and food for thought throughout our state. Today Dolores and Dove Creek, tomorrow Denver.
Last edited by Colorado Rambler; 11-03-2021 at 01:28 PM..
Around Cortez where I live residential property values are continuing to climb into the stratosphere. I can't say the same for small towns like Dove Creek, unfortunately.
Water is everything in Colorado and the rest of the West. The Front Range gets more water from the Western Slope than you might think. If rivers like the Dolores and the Colorado continue to dry up, do you really believe Denver will be unscathed? That sounds like either hubris or misinformation to me.
Excerpts: "A new study warns of impending water supply problems due to nearly snowless mountains in about 35 to 60 years. . . . In about 35 to 60 years, mountainous states are projected to be nearly snowless for years at a time if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked and climate change does not slow. Due to rising temperatures, the region has already lost 20% of its snowpack since the 1950s. That’s enough water to fill Lake Mead, the nation’s largest human-made reservoir. It stands to lose another half, and possibly more, later this century, from the Rockies to the Sierra Nevada and into the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest, according to a literature synthesis conducted in the study leveraging dozens of peer-reviewed climate model projections. The current snow situation in the West offers a preview of what the future may hold...."
Cheers!
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