Western States Megadrought intensifies - predictions for bad Fire Season and severe water shortages for Colorado (Colorado Springs: credit, construction)

[aab7855]

"Toilet to tap" sounds so appetizing, doesn't it?

If all the major cities in the SW take the El Paso approach, they'll be fine. Smaller towns as well as some localized agricultural activity may be out of luck in the future. Though Israel's breakthrough technological advances offer us a great example of a robust agricultural sector in the desert. Believe in science, yall. Invest in it.

[Mike from back east]

New data out today on changes to climate, i.e., hotter just about everywhere in the nation. Data is on the WaPo, a paywall site, but may be available elsewhere.

Data is for temperature and rainfall. The southwestern USA is well warmer and drier; something that those of us living here already know.

[Mike from back east]

Article in the Pagosa Sun about water rights and usage.

Excerpt:

"Melting snow and flowing irrigation ditches mean spring has finally arrived at the base of Grand Mesa in western Colorado. Harts Basin Ranch, a 3,400-acre expanse of hayfields and pasture just south of Cedaredge, in Delta County, is coming back to life with the return of water. Twelve hundred of the ranch’s acres are irrigated with water from Alfalfa Ditch, diverted from Surface Creek, which flows down the south slopes of the Grand Mesa. The ranch has the No. 1 priority water right — meaning the oldest, which comes with the ability to use the creek’s water first — dating to 1881. .... At the direction of state lawmakers, a Speculation Work Group has been meeting regularly to explore ways to strengthen the state’s anti-speculation law. The topic frequently comes up at meetings of Western Slope water managers: the Colorado River Water Conservation District, basin roundtables and boards of county commissioners. ... "

[Phil P]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

New data out today on changes to climate, i.e., hotter just about everywhere in the nation. Data is on the WaPo, a paywall site, but may be available elsewhere.

Data is for temperature and rainfall. The southwestern USA is well warmer and drier; something that those of us living here already know.

Interesting information here. I wish they split it by lows vs highs and precipitation days instead of just inches.

Overall yes, there does seem to be a pretty systematic warming and drying of the southwest. My inkling is that the two are entwined, less snow and evapotranspiration means greater heat than would be otherwise.

There's a lot of interesting things going on nation wide. This link shows the changes by month:https://theconversation.com/warming-...atasets-159684

First, July and August aren't getting much hotter, it's moreso Decembers getting a lot less cold. Second, Appalachia and the Northern Plains are getting noticeably wetter. Probably a good thing for both. The northern US seems to be vortexed more in spring, which means the subtropical creep won't happen as fast into that continental area, and spring doesn't seem to be coming much earlier compared to falls which seem to be happening later.

Much drier Novembers, good for harvests I guess!

[Colorado Rambler]

The Western U.S. appears headed for another dangerous fire season, and a new study shows that even high mountain areas once considered too wet to burn are at increasing risk as the climate warms.

Nearly two-thirds of the U.S. West is in severe to exceptional drought right now, including large parts of the Rocky Mountains, Cascades and Sierra Nevada. The situation is so severe that the Colorado River basin is on the verge of its first official water shortage declaration, and forecasts suggest another hot, dry summer is on the way.

Warm and dry conditions like these are a recipe for wildfire disaster.

In a new study - reported on by Coyote Gulch, scientists analyzed records of all fires larger than 1,000 acres (405 hectares) in the mountainous regions of the contiguous Western U.S. between 1984 and 2017:

The amount of land that burned increased across all elevations during that period, but the largest increase occurred above 8,200 feet (2,500 meters). To put that elevation into perspective, Denver – the mile-high city – sits at 5,280 feet, and Aspen, Colorado, is at 8,000 feet. These high-elevation areas are largely remote mountains and forests with some small communities and ski areas.

The area burning above 8,200 feet more than tripled in 2001-2017 compared with 1984-2000.

One of Colorado’s largest wildfires, 2020’s East Troublesome Fire, crossed the Continental Divide and was burning at elevations around 9,000 feet in October, when snow normally would have been falling.

The results show that climate warming has diminished the high-elevation flammability barrier – the point where forests historically were too wet to burn regularly because the snow normally lingered well into summer and started falling again early in the fall. Fires advanced about 826 feet (252 meters) uphill in the Western mountains over those three decades.

The Cameron Peak Fire in Colorado in 2020 was the state’s largest fire in its history, burning over 208,000 acres (84,200 hectares) and is a prime example of a high-elevation forest fire. The fire burned in forests extending to 12,000 feet (3,650 meters) and reached the upper tree line of the Rocky Mountains.

The study found that rising temperatures in the past 34 years have helped to extend the fire territory in the West to an additional 31,470 square miles (81,500 square kilometers) of high-elevation forests. That means a staggering 11% of all Western U.S. forests – an area similar in size to South Carolina – are susceptible to fire now that weren’t three decades ago.

I don't know about you, but I remember the Colorado High Country in the summers at elevations above 9,500 feet or so. You could generally expect an afternoon rainstorm and temperatures tended to be brisk after sunset even in July. Last August I was camped out in the San Juans at about 10,100 feet. It was 8:00 am and it felt much warmer than what I was used to at such elevations. My little orienteering GPS had a temperature feature and it was claiming that the air up there had already reached a temperature of 80 degrees F at that relatively early hour. I looked at the GPS in disbelief and shook it a couple of times, but against all common sense, it still read 80 degrees. I guess that this high elevation area of the San Juans is part of that 11% of high elevation forest which is ready to burn.

Things like this have a way of breaking my heart. Maybe I should move back to Kentucky's Cumberland Mountains and forget that I ever saw any other mountains.

[Colorado Rambler]

The Four Corners region is the most severely affected part of Colorado due to climate warming and ongoing drought.

According to the Durango Herald:

The grim reality of major irrigation shortages this year in Southwest Colorado is setting in for farmers, water managers and fish habitat.

Irrigators tied to McPhee Reservoir contracts will receive just 5% to 10% of their normal supply, said Ken Curtis, general manager for the Dolores Water Conservancy District.

The shortages affect full-service users in the water district in Montezuma and Dolores counties, the Ute Mountain Ute Farm and Ranch and the downstream fishery.

The water district said no supplemental irrigation supplies will be available to the senior water-rights holders.

Alfalfa farmers are consolidating acreage to try to produce one small crop.

When there is a full irrigation supply in McPhee, Dove Creek farmer Lyle Deremo cultivates alfalfa on 900 acres, with three cuttings, and yields of 5 tons per acre.

This year, he can irrigate 130 acres, with just one cutting.

“It’s marginal, there are a lot of zeros” on his production sheets, Deremo said. “All you can do is use what you have the most efficiently.”

Irrigators tied to McPhee Reservoir contracts will receive just 5% to 10% of their normal supply, said Ken Curtis, general manager for the Dolores Water Conservancy District.

The shortages affect full-service users in the water district in Montezuma and Dolores counties, the Ute Mountain Ute Farm and Ranch and the downstream fishery.

The water district said no supplemental irrigation supplies will be available to the senior water-rights holders.

The economic impact of the irrigation water shortage will be widespread, as farmers expect a significant decrease in revenue that will trickle through the local economy, water officials said.

If next year’s supply doesn’t improve “multigenerational farm families may face bankruptcy,” said Curtis.

Unirrigated alfalfa fields will dominate the landscape this summer. Farmers noted that with some rain, the fallow fields can produce enough forage for cattle grazing. Ranchers have been contacting farmers to take advantage of the option, Deremo said.

A dead crawfish and cracked earth on the nearly empty Narraguinnep Reservoir illustrate problems caused by the drought. - Jim Mimiaga/The Cortez Journal


I am living at ground zero for all this - surrounded by irrigated farms owned by the Ute Nation and privately owned ranches - many of which have been in the same family for generations. Folks on the Front Range may believe that all this will not impact them, but if the drought continues for one more year, current law states that the Federal government will step in to re-allocate the water between the Colorado River Basin States. It's possible that Denver will have to get in line behind thirsty Phoenix and even Albuquerque. It is going to be beyond interesting to see how this all plays out in the coming three or so years.

[xeric]

Originally Posted by pikabike

My husband and I use about 60 to 65 gals/day for both of us in winter, rising to 140 to 150 gals/day during the hottest part of the year, during which we turn on drip irrigation and hand-water some plants, all of which are native species or xeriscape ones chosen for compatibility with both the conditions and for “playing nice” with native species. We shower daily, do dishes by hand, and machine-wash a total of 4, sometimes 5, loads of laundry per week. Both of us are home most of the time, so commuting to a different place does not figure into this. Frankly, I am puzzled at just HOW DOES THE SO-CALLED AVERAGE AMERICAN USE 100+ GALLONS PER DAY PERSON?!?? We are at 32.5 and 72.5 gals/person/day in winter and summer, respectively, and it does not feel like deprivation!

I wonder about this too. My wife and I have similar water usage footprints and it’s certainly not correlated to any feeling that we are leading a poorer lifestyle than the average water users in our city (where the average gallons per capital per day is 130).

[Mike from back east]

Today's NY Times has a set of graphs depicted the deepening drought, hope readers can access this paywall site which does allow a few free article each month.

Here in the Phoenix area we're looking at a week of temps in the range of 110F and higher with lots of fires burning in the state.

[pikabike]

Originally Posted by COcheesehead

What is one of THE most important things we need to sustain life...water. What do we do with it? We poop in it. LOL.

^^^Post of the year.

[LHS79]

Originally Posted by pikabike

^^^Post of the year.

Yep- thus the reason we should be paying MUCH more for the resource.