Population dropoff (Chicago, Naperville, Harvey: 2013, neighborhood, construction)

[mattywo85]

Chicago has lost some of its population over the years. Do you all think its just a fluke and population will go back up or do you think people are moving away to warmer climates for good? I personally hope it goes back up and I think it will, it will just take a little time.

[Huckleberry3911948]

people dont move bek of the weather. they move for safety.
when the crime keeps on and the cops and populous are in denial, folks move.

[Drover]

Not only the crime but schools. There are basically two kinds of families left in Chicago: those who can afford to send their kids to private school, and those who can't afford a better option than where they live right now. ("Let's see... if I make it out of Roseland and settle in Dolton, are my kids and I going to be better off? Probably not... might as well stay put.") That and a smattering of new young families who are not quite ready to give up the city life and are still trying to work out if they can get little Brantley and little Kayleigh into a good school. Then when they realize they have to fight a bureaucratic maze to get them into the small handful of good city schools and they can't quite swing putting them in private schools, they beat a path right back to the suburbs they had erstwhile sworn off for life -- the same path beaten down by hundreds of thousands of middle-class families before them.

Sure, there's been lots of residential construction over the last 15 years, but take a look at the kind of units are being built: mostly Condos and some townhouses, generally not conducive to "family" living. So bigger households are moving (or have moved) out and smaller households (singles, DINKS and retirees) are moving in. That doesn't make for a population boom.

[Lookout Kid]

The Chicago metro area is growing, albeit slower than the Sun Belt. And there really isn't good evidence that the city is shrinking either. The Census Bureau is notoriously inaccurate with their estimates. In 2000 they were predicting a big population loss for the city, and the population actually went up by over 100,000 residents.

We really won't know what direction Chicago is going until the 2010 Census data becomes available.

[j33]

I agree with Drover. I've of the age where a lot of my friends are starting to have kids and have begun to think about educating their kids. Being that I do not necessarily run with a wealthy crowd, there have been quite a few discussions on how to handle schooling, I know a few people who have moved out to inner-ring burbs somewhat sheepishly (they don't have the money for private schools, got lost in the CPS maze or didn't know the right person, and the public schools in their neighborhood are not good), but I understand why.

[Attrill]

I think Chicago will see slow and steady population increases, but not a boom. As others have noted - improving CPS is a big part of growing the population of Chicago. I'm hopeful that there will be improvements and have seen a number of elementary schools in areas like Lincoln Square and Logan Square improve due to increased parent involvement and management changes.

[Lookout Kid]

The largest factor that drove the Chicago (proper) population increases in the 90s was Hispanic immigration. If that pipeline of new residents is shut down, the city will lose residents. There are only so many empty-nesters and young people without kids to go around.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Drover

...and are still trying to work out if they can get little Brantley and little Kayleigh into a good school.

Brantley and Kayleigh? Priceless! What about Madison and Dakota?

[At1WithNature]

With all of the gentrification and Mayor Dailey's ever kind act of moving the crime and those types of people to the suburbs, i would say yes. Chicago is primed for a population explosion.

[ajolotl]

I agree 100% regarding schools. I don't feel unsafe at all in the city and if I fled to the suburbs that wouldn't factor into my decision at all. Paying two tuitions at the Lab School though in addition to property taxes is painful. Occasionally I consider just packing up and moving to Naperville -- I would have a lot more disposable income. For most people I know this is the key issue.