Population dropoff (Chicago, Lincoln, Manhattan: lofts, crimes, hotels)

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by ajolotl

I agree 100% regarding schools. I don't feel unsafe at all in the city and if I fled to the suburbs that wouldn't factor into my decision at all. Paying two tuitions at the Lab School though in addition to property taxes is painful. Occasionally I consider just packing up and moving to Naperville -- I would have a lot more disposable income. For most people I know this is the key issue.

That's the issue that would get me out of the city, if I ever leave. I can't afford two private school tuitions along with two childcare fees (assuming I have a second kid someday). And while there are some CPS schools that "aren't bad", I have yet to find one that truly offers the opporunities I want to give my children, with the exception of the "Limited Enrollment" high schools like Northside College Prep, Payton, Whitney Young, etc. But it's a long shot to get into some of those schools, and I'd hate to be surprised by a bunch of rejections for my 9th grader.

[Attrill]

Originally Posted by At1WithNature

With all of the gentrification and Mayor Dailey's ever kind act of moving the crime and those types of people to the suburbs, i would say yes. Chicago is primed for a population explosion.

Gentrification can actually end up reducing the population of an area. I've seen many three flats with families of 3 to 6 on each floor replaced by three story condos with just 1 or 2 people on each floor. I'm almost certain that the 2010 census will show areas like Ukrainian Village, West Town, and Logan Square to have a lower density than in 2000. The residential population of the Loop, South Loop and Near West Side will be much higher tho', and it will be a steady growth for the city as a whole.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Attrill

Gentrification can actually end up reducing the population of an area.

This is true! The population of Manhattan has decreased as the well-off have replaced the poor. Apartments that once housed large families now have only a DINK couple or single, etc.

But much of the "gentrification" of Chicago has included building new, dense housing where no housing existed before. It's hard to know the effect of this on population, since many of these condos are second homes for people.

[At1WithNature]

Originally Posted by Attrill

Gentrification can actually end up reducing the population of an area. I've seen many three flats with families of 3 to 6 on each floor replaced by three story condos with just 1 or 2 people on each floor. I'm almost certain that the 2010 census will show areas like Ukrainian Village, West Town, and Logan Square to have a lower density than in 2000. The residential population of the Loop, South Loop and Near West Side will be much higher tho', and it will be a steady growth for the city as a whole.

That's a great point! I was thinking though more people will move to those gentrified areas once the ghettos/crackhouses are knocked down and all those people leaching on the government are moved to places like Park Forest and Harvey in favor of hard working family people that make great neighbors opposed to thugs and gangbangers who hang outside all day long and do not work a 9 to 5.

For decades, good quality families have been moving to the suburbs but now they are starting to move back to the city which is a great thing to see.

[ajolotl]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

That's the issue that would get me out of the city, if I ever leave. I can't afford two private school tuitions along with two childcare fees (assuming I have a second kid someday). And while there are some CPS schools that "aren't bad", I have yet to find one that truly offers the opporunities I want to give my children, with the exception of the "Limited Enrollment" high schools like Northside College Prep, Payton, Whitney Young, etc. But it's a long shot to get into some of those schools, and I'd hate to be surprised by a bunch of rejections for my 9th grader.

I agree those schools are good but as you point out there is zero assurance at all, and even if one gets in the other is no more likely to, so you end up spending half of your time shuttling kids around the city during rush hour.

I'm zoned for Barnard Elementary and Morgan Park High School. Morgan Park actually gets very high scores but, being totally honest, I don't feel comfortable with my kids being such an overwhelming minority (it's 2.9% white in spite of the zone being maybe closer to 50-50 or even majority white -- reportedly there are many hundreds of kids from outside the area). Some of the students also look like such incredible thugs to me. I know -- that's my own ignorance about urban style, etc. but I can't get over it. Lab has a reasonable size black population and zero kids dress like that or look remotely threatening. Given that Beverly isn't any cheaper than suburbs it's much less popular than it would be if there were a public high school that the majority of the residents felt comfortable with.

[jjbradleynyc]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

This is true! The population of Manhattan has decreased as the well-off have replaced the poor. Apartments that once housed large families now have only a DINK couple or single, etc.

But much of the "gentrification" of Chicago has included building new, dense housing where no housing existed before. It's hard to know the effect of this on population, since many of these condos are second homes for people.

True. Manhattan's peak population was 2.33 million in 1910, and it lost people steadily until it bottomed out in 1980 at 1.428 million. It has been growing steadily and recently more rapidly since, with a 2007 estimate putting the population back up to 1.62 million.
It's interesting to note that Manhattan could hold another 600-700k more people...wow. That is hard to believe.

[neonwattagelimit]

Originally Posted by Attrill

Gentrification can actually end up reducing the population of an area. I've seen many three flats with families of 3 to 6 on each floor replaced by three story condos with just 1 or 2 people on each floor. I'm almost certain that the 2010 census will show areas like Ukrainian Village, West Town, and Logan Square to have a lower density than in 2000. The residential population of the Loop, South Loop and Near West Side will be much higher tho', and it will be a steady growth for the city as a whole.

Great point. It seems that a lot of people mistakenly assume that gentrification raises population. It does not. It stabilizes it, perhaps, staving off large pouplation decreases. But it does not raise it.

If you take a look at the numbers, the only older American cities that have seen substantial population increases in the last two decades are NYC and LA. What do they have in common? They are both huge immigrant meccas. I remember reading somewhere that without immigration, NYC's population would actually have gone down slightly this decade.

I've noticed that people on here tend to look at Chicago's population decline and say "See! Midwest! Rust Belt! The city's dying!" You know what other city has seen a small population decline since 2000? San Francisco. Is San Francisco dying? I think not. Indeed, it would sound silly to suggest such a thing.

Gentrification does not raise population. Immigration does.

To answer the original question, I think Chicago will see a generally small upward trend in population during the coming years, though it may go down at times, too. I don't think it will ever again reach its 1950 peak, but I'd say the odds are decent that it will top 3million again at some point. And, yes, improving the schools would help - but, really, it's all about immigration.

[i blame history]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

Brantley and Kayleigh? Priceless! What about Madison and Dakota?

Don't forget Maddi and Aiden

[Rusty_Shackleford]

Originally Posted by neonwattagelimit

Gentrification does not raise population.

Then why did Lake View, the Near North Side, and Lincoln Park gain population in the 90s? The Near North Side increased by 15% ...
In higher density neighborhoods, gentrification results in less vacant housing and more housing construction.

[makossa]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948

people dont move bek of the weather. they move for safety.
when the crime keeps on and the cops and populous are in denial, folks move.

Hooray with REP!!! Older folks may seek better weather but the rest of the population all seek safety above all. It's a "no-brainer". Does anyone want to be unsafe and feel threatened??....LOL

It's a bit more of everyone being in denial though. It seems the CPD are experts of sweeping crime stats under the rug giving some a false of security.