Population dropoff (Chicago, Detroit: to live in, prices, estimates)

[Chicago60614]

Originally Posted by Dexterguy

Chicago has a very strange population trend, it has gone up and down in a matter of just years. I know in the 1980's the city took a huge population hit, I believe the city shrunk about 11%. In the 1990's the city's population shrank, but not to badly. And now in the last few years I believe that the city's population has risen something like 0.3% or something. Getting back over 3 Million? I really do not know, it could but I don't think that it will be there anytime soon because it is not growing nearly as fast as it was in the early 20th century when the city raised to it's national status.

According to the 2000 census Chicago was 42% White. While the Hispanic population was at 26% I believe that the Hispanic population in the city will just continue to grow, as it has been doing in every single city of the U.S.

Shrunk 7.4% in the 1980's

Grew 4% in the 1990's.

Supposed to have shrunk around 1% this decade. I think it will be flat, with between a -2% and 3% change.

[lincolnparker]

As of the 2000 census, there were 2,896,016 people, 1,061,928 households, and 632,909 families residing within Chicago. More than half the population of the state of Illinois lives in the Chicago metropolitan area. The population density of the city itself was 12,750.3 people per square mile (4,923.0/km²), making it one of the nation's most densely populated cities. There were 1,152,868 housing units at an average density of 5,075.8 per square mile (1,959.8/km²). Of the 1,061,928 households, 28.9% have children under the age of 18 living with them, 35.1% were married couples living together, 18.9% had a female householder with no husband present, and 40.4% were non-families. The median income for a household in the city was $38,625, and the median income for a family was $46,748. Males had a median income of $35,907 versus $30,536 for females. Below the poverty line are 19.6% of the population and 16.6% of the families.
The racial makeup of the city was 41.97% White (31.32% White Non-Hispanic), 36.77% African American, 4.35% Asian, 0.06% Pacific Islander, 0.36% Native American, 13.58% from other races, and 2.92% from two or more races. 26.02% of the population were Hispanic of any race. 21.72% of the population was foreign born; of this, 56.29% came from Latin America, 23.13% from Europe, 17.96% from Asia and 2.62% from other parts of the world.[23]


Census
year Population Rank %±
1840 4,470 92 -- 1850 29,963 24 570.3% 1860 112,172 9 274.4% 1870 298,977 5 166.5% 1880 503,185 4 68.3% 1890 1,099,850 2 118.6% 1900 1,698,575 2 54.4% 1910 2,185,283 2 28.7% 1920 2,701,705 2 23.6% 1930 3,376,438 2 25.0% 1940 3,396,808 2 0.6% 1950 3,620,962 2 6.6% 1960 3,550,404 2 -1.9% 1970 3,366,957 2 -5.2% 1980 3,005,072 2 -10.7% 1990 2,783,726 3 -7.4% 2000 2,896,016 3 4.0% 2003 2,869,121 3 -0.9% 2006 2,873,790 3 0.2%

[Drover]

Hard to imagine the population is shrinking given the sheer number of immigrants we've absorbed this decade. Obviously we're not experience Sun Belt-like growth but I'd be surprised if we lost population by the time the official 2010 figures arrive.

[Lookout Kid]

The question is, absent of any sort of meaninful regulation, will immigration from Latin America continue indefinitely? Or is there some sort of saturation point? At what point does it cease being a lucrative venture to emmigrate here? There are push and pull factors both here and in the immigrants' native countries, but I have a hard time believing that the massive Latin American immigration can continue at this pace for the long term.

I hate to turn this into an immigration debate, but growth in the City of Chicago has almost entirely been driven by immigration.

[MILWCITY]

I believe Chicago will reach 3,000,000 not soon though, I think in 15-20 yrs it will be there. Milwaukee will probably shrink from 620,000 down to 550,000 and like all metro's, will increase. Although if taxes keep going up in Chicago Milwaukee might see an infux of transplants.

[Avengerfire]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

I don't think we'll reach 3 million people in the near future (assuming we're not there now with illegal immigrants)....

I am pretty sure we are well over 3 million right now if the illegals are counted. Maybe even around 3.5 million.

[NYrules]

Originally Posted by ChiMack

do you ever think that chicago will have 3 million people or more again?

how many white people do you think are in chicago? do you think chicago will ever be overwhelmingly hispanic (not that there is anything wrong with that)

If gas prices go back up, it will once again be the kick off of the mass exodus out of the burbs and back into the city where urbanites can now dump the gas hogs and hop on the train or bus for a nominal fee. If prices on gas stay down, then people will be more apt to rely on their cars to get around and be content with the burbs where the car is a neccessity.

That said, the city's population will begin to rise dramatically again once the prices on gas go back up to where they were (The dreaded 4s). I mean lets face it folks if you're a single person or a couple without kids and both work in the Loop, whats the sense of paying $80 a week in gas or more, when you can live in the Loop in a very hip apartment for $1600 a mo. or get a condo for $300K... Only $100K more than in the burbs and have yourself a lil nest egg where you know you will get your money back out of it when you sell and then some, not to mention have all the joys of having everything only a short walk away from your front door step vs. having to pile into the car, get stuck in traffic everywhere you go, park... Get your door dinged by some idiot who lets his cart go loose (yes this happens to me regularly), then get to get ripped off at the pumps (until lately), then get to pay $60-$200 a mo for insurance (depending on your driving record), pay for repairs to the car, etc. So, after this last little escapade the oil companies had of putting gas prices up into the stratosphere, people have really re-evaluated how far out from the downtown area they are willing to live if they work there, so I can see Chicago's population continue to rise as long as businesses continue to do business in Chicago and fuel prices stay high thus encouraging people to stay closer into the city.

As for the city turning Hispanic... Well, its sad, but the truth is and studies can prove this theory, Hispanics do have more children overall than Caucasians. It is an overwhelming trend now for white folks to hold off on starting the family or not have one at all, or try to limit themselves to having 2 kids for one reason or another. In Latin culture, it is not out of the norm to see a mother have 4 kids... TWICE as many kids as a typical white family. Now this is not picking on Latinos by any means, but just pointing out a fact that Latinos are more apt to have a family at an earlier age and have more children than white folks. Then another factor that will alter new births all over the country is the amount of people who are coming out of the closet now, basically swearing off having kids all together, so that will also have an effect on the population trends. I remember a professor in college putting it this way, when speaking in terms of the large numbers of people that are coming clean about being gay now. If you're a Latino who is homosexual, chances are you have at least 2 other siblings who most likely are straight, meaning they can have children, so thats lets say typically 6 grandchildren (2 other siblings each having 3 kids) down the line someday for that family. In the case of a white man/woman who is homosexual, he/she may not even have any siblings or typically have maybe 1 sibling who statistically has 2 kids, so that is 2 caucaisian children to 4-6 latino children. Its really hard to explain, I just wish I could remember sociology and psy101 better. But, at any rate, I can careless who is gay, so I'm not picking on anyone for being gay. (I'm not gay... Not that there's anything wrong with that; Seinfeld)

[billybones]

Originally Posted by Avengerfire

I am pretty sure we are well over 3 million right now if the illegals are counted. Maybe even around 3.5 million.

From the reports (if we can believe them), many illegal immigrants are returning home due to the poor economy here in the U.S.. It's hard to say what percentage of illegals that do return to their country are from the Chicago area. It's got to be hard to get accurate stats on something like this.

Homeward Bound: Recent Immigration Enforcement and the Decline in the Illegal Alien Population | Center for Immigration Studies

[vandre]

Originally Posted by NYrules

As for the city turning Hispanic... Well, its sad, but the truth is and studies can prove this theory, Hispanics do have more children overall than Caucasians. It is an overwhelming trend now for white folks to hold off on starting the family or not have one at all, or try to limit themselves to having 2 kids for one reason or another. In Latin culture, it is not out of the norm to see a mother have 4 kids... TWICE as many kids as a typical white family. Now this is not picking on Latinos by any means, but just pointing out a fact

The fact that hispanic people have more kids (at least in the U.S) has nothing to do with 'Latin Culture'; it is a matter of socioeconomic status and educational levels. Many of the people who immigrate to the U.S come from the lower rungs of society.

In fact if you look at the latest Mexican census data, the average fertily rate is 2.1, *identical* to the average fertility rate in the U.S:

Translated version of http://www.inegi.gob.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/rutinas/ept.asp?t=mpob16&c=3193

Demographics of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Having said that, it would be interesting to see how much the fertility rate 'goes up' in Mexico if there is a mass exodus of immigrants from the U.S because of the economic situation.

[NYrules]

Originally Posted by vandre

The fact that hispanic people have more kids (at least in the U.S) has nothing to do with 'Latin Culture'; it is a matter of socioeconomic status and educational levels. Many of the people who immigrate to the U.S come from the lower rungs of society.

In fact if you look at the latest Mexican census data, the average fertily rate is 2.1, *identical* to the average fertility rate in the U.S:

Translated version of http://www.inegi.gob.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/rutinas/ept.asp?t=mpob16&c=3193

Demographics of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Having said that, it would be interesting to see how much the fertility rate 'goes up' in Mexico if there is a mass exodus of immigrants from the U.S because of the economic situation.

Well, basically said, Latinos are reproducing in Chicago at a faster rate than white people are. Thats no surprise... I can attest in my own experience, if I look at all the people/neighbors/co-workers I know, I don't know of any younger (under35) white people who have more than 2 kids, while Latinos???... Yeaaaaa (In Bill Lumberg voice "Office Space") I think the highest I know is my neighbor's friend who has 5 kids already and she is in her mid 30s. So, basically if this continues, eventually the Latino population will exceed the white population, and as for Latinos flooding back across the border; while it is a funny thought and all of everyone here flooding down to Mexico like in the Movie "Day After Tomorrow" where Mexico shuts it's border down to stop Americans from flooding across the border... As bad as it is here, its still no where near as bad as life is down there. I mean you want to talk about poor and un-fair government practices. Sheesh! Give me the good ol' US of A anyday.