Do you think the CTA/METRA will come back after Covid or will it become obsolete? (Chicago: section 8, renters)

[OKParker]

Originally Posted by BRU67

I agree. I apply the 1 Mile Rule - any property must be less than a mile from the L for me to even consider it. Closer the better. The hot market activity I'm seeing is too coincidentally along L corridors for me to think that the Covid will turn into anything other than a short term blip in the back to the city movement.

If you watch carefully, the articles and commentary predicting otherwise almost always come from the same usual conservative suspects.

There are definitely some bad actors on this forum and also Reddit (but not skyscraperpage) that I've noticed. I have a similar rule to the 1 mile rule of <15 minute walk which works out to around .8 miles, but the closer the better. I ended up investing on a very heavily trafficked L route as I wanted to throw my money into an A- area which I could get a 9 cap and max out the loans at these interest rates.

One cheaper place I was interested in was in LV at the California stop - 2820 W Cermak - which had 5 apartments and one large storefront (formerly two storefronts) all for $440k.. Great cap in a nice part of LV, but I stuck to less than 5 units to lock in 2.75 on a mixed use property.

I'd put money on the fact that certain L stops are only going to increase in usage throughout the 2020s even if remote work does trend up during this period. TOD is blowing up density near certain stops and that will not slow down

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by OKParker

TOD is blowing up density near certain stops and that will not slow down

No kidding. Even far enough away from some of the stops, like all the stuff going over here along Belmont, well west of the Blue Line.

Got way too much stuff getting built, and moved into as soon as it's finished, for these predictions of impending doom to play out.
Most of this row of townhomes on Karlov south of Belmont finished after the COVID closures and such started, and every single unit has been sold and is now occupied.
Then we'll have the ones at Belmont/Tripp/Keeler finishing soon, then they'll start developing the lot across from it.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by jfre81

No kidding. Even far enough away from some of the stops, like all the stuff going over here along Belmont, well west of the Blue Line.

Got way too much stuff getting built, and moved into as soon as it's finished, for these predictions of impending doom to play out.
Most of this row of townhomes on Karlov south of Belmont finished after the COVID closures and such started, and every single unit has been sold and is now occupied.
Then we'll have the ones at Belmont/Tripp/Keeler finishing soon, then they'll start developing the lot across from it.

They'll literally have to rewrite curriculum at colleges and universities all over the countries in courses related to urban planning if the predictions of impending doom play out. Instead of TOD, they'll be pushing the development of car dependent suburbs.

The ultimate problem's going to be that the attributes which make many suburbs attractive to those moving to them are going to get diluted or go away when our federal, state and local leaders start pushing affordable housing requirements and attacking the zoning restrictions which have allowed suburbs to avoid concentrations of rental properties and, thus, lower income residents. That will change the character of the suburbs. I mean, this is happening already, but it will shift into overdrive should there be a massive push of affluent people out of cities which shrinks their tax bases.

Let's be honest here. A lack of economic diversity is what has made the suburbs attractive to those moving to them for all these years. That's just a fact. Their denizens can put all the BLM signs on their lawns and make all the social media posts with the right progressive buzz words in them that they want to. No one is being fooled. So the 'burbs had better be careful for what they wish for!

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by BRU67

if the predictions of impending doom play out.

Some of the doom-mongering involves the canceling the Keystone XL pipeline is going to make gas too expensive, which would complicate this logic you're putting forth here.

In any case, I moved here, in no small part, to get away from having to drive everywhere. I used to live on the road in Texas. I'm over it like a highway overpass.

Here's what I like here - I managed to not only be a Census enumerator without a car, only walking or taking CTA, covering everything inside Lawrence/California/Austin/Ogden and was productive enough to be one of the very last ones they kept in the field in October when the Trump admin cut the operation short. I could have never pulled that off in Houston. I could have never pulled that off in Phoenix or Tampa or wherever else folks say they want to move. But I can do that in Chicago. Our transit infrastructure is the reason why.

I have everything I need on a day-to-day basis within a mile of my place.

The ultimate problem's going to be that the attributes which make many suburbs attractive to those moving to them are going to get diluted or go away when our federal, state and local leaders start pushing affordable housing requirements and attacking the zoning restrictions which have allowed suburbs to avoid concentrations of rental properties and, thus, lower income residents. That will change the character of the suburbs. I mean, this is happening already, but it will shift into overdrive should there be a massive push of affluent people out of cities which shrinks their tax bases.

You say this like that didn't already happen 60 years ago. In any case, the fewer people with this kind of mentality I live around, the better on my end.

[dtcbnd03]

Very smart to invest in real estate near el stops. Trains are a significant capex item so better to be near than far. The el is the most efficient way to get around the city in rush hour. Properties nearby cast the widest net to potential tenants / buyers. However, this does not speak to future CTA ridership numbers. Living near an el stop and actually taking the el on a daily basis for work are two different discussions not entirely 100% correlated. Pre-covid I lived near an el to get to work and the airport. Post-covid I will still live near the el cause that's where all the action is but I rarely take the el now and my remote work is here to stay. Anecdotal but you get the idea. CTA needs the daily rush hour traffic and with an X% decline due to remote work will likely contract schedules, stops, etc. While the el is the most efficient way to get to work for many people...logging in to zoom / teams is even more efficient. And efficiency in business always wins out!

[jfre81]

Irony is reading this thread on a Brown Line car that's a bit too crowded for my liking at the moment, at least til I can get my vax.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by jfre81

Some

You say this like that didn't already happen 60 years ago. In any case, the fewer people with this kind of mentality I live around, the better on my end.

Exclusionary zoning, or snob zoning, has been going on for longer than 60 years. But it is becoming more and more of a focus of housing advocates. Just because the Supreme Court has upheld it doesn't mean that it can't be changed legislatively. As our political system becomes more one-sided, I think it's fair to expect there to be some pretty radical changes in this regard.

As there honestly should be. It isn't like our Chicagoland affluent suburbs like the North Shore, Oak Park, Evanston - and even Naperville and Wheaton these days - are full of conservatives. So they should practice what they now preach and open their communities up to some substantial volume of low-income and subsidized housing.

[jfre81]

Originally Posted by BRU67

Exclusionary zoning, or snob zoning, has been going on for longer than 60 years.

I'm patently aware. The question, to me, is do we need to keep doing it for 60 more years.

It isn't like our Chicagoland affluent suburbs like the North Shore, Oak Park, Evanston - and even Naperville and Wheaton these days - are full of conservatives. So they should practice what they now preach and open their communities up to some substantial volume of low-income and subsidized housing.

Or, at the very least, they can maintain a way for folks who work there but can't afford to live there, to at least get there to go to work serving these folks at McDonald's or what have you.

Tying us back to the original topic, of course.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by jfre81

I'm patently aware. The question, to me, is do we need to keep doing it for 60 more years.
.

No. And I am sick of the hypocrisy on this. Why do affordable housing units always have to be built in city neighborhoods? Usually in one's already poor and under the auspices of "stopping gentrification."

If we really want to give low-income people access to quality housing and opportunity, we need to start giving the wealthier suburbs a heaping helping of low-income housing developments. Many progressives live in these suburbs and purport to want equality. So take action, and don't fall into the campaign assumption of the Republicans that suburbs are afraid of this. Show them they're wrong!

[OKParker]

Originally Posted by jfre81

No kidding. Even far enough away from some of the stops, like all the stuff going over here along Belmont, well west of the Blue Line.

Got way too much stuff getting built, and moved into as soon as it's finished, for these predictions of impending doom to play out.
Most of this row of townhomes on Karlov south of Belmont finished after the COVID closures and such started, and every single unit has been sold and is now occupied.
Then we'll have the ones at Belmont/Tripp/Keeler finishing soon, then they'll start developing the lot across from it.

We are obviously on the same page here. But, I do think its important to realize that we are really not building many units right now even if it seems like we are https://constructioncoverage.com/res...w-housing-2020 - we are building 19 units / 10K people.. that is such a small number and with context of others who also aren't growing during the analysis period (Detroit 17, STL 25, Memphis 25, NYC 30), I would say Chicago isn't building very much.

Construction costs increasing in the future (this will happen even if materials drop as labor supply looks to be decreasing) mean existing real estate will likely increase just due to this fact. Also, population declines in the metro area are likely irrelevant to many chicago areas that are going to see increasing demand for units as A) certain areas just gain demand as we've been seeing for the last few decades while the southside clears out, B) smaller families still requiring one unit even if it isn't the 5 child households of decades ago. One area that I'm invested in right now has seen population drop by 20% from its peak while the number of units occupied has increased.