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It long been the dream of conservatives to see cities decline. They think the remote work thing has finally turned that dream into blissful reality. A reality where all of the good law abiding highly paid people will move to their virtually tax-free red state, while all the nasty liberals and poor suffer in "Escape from New York" style misery, while paying big taxes to support the lazy. Then they can tell all of us that they told us so. Well, they do that already, but it'll be even more so!
While I give dctnb03 a hard time, I do understand it's natural to want to think everyone is like you. But the back to the city movement has been going on since at least the mid-1980s. And as you point out, most of us cannot work remotely, or our employers do not prefer that and will not allow it once restrictions are lifted. I think there will be a recovery period but I do not foresee a significant decrease in CTA ridership long term.
I would agree with you if the only factor were Covid. Because once the pandemic is over vis-a-vis immunizations and herd immunity, why wouldn't people use public transportation in the same way they did prior to Feb. 2020?
And even if you discount Remote Work as a reaction to Covid that will go away with the virus - but I'm not so sure about that, I think a significant number of employees who can work from home, will continue to do so, if only part-time - it's a significant savings to companies that can then have smaller facilities, lower utility costs, spend less on other amenities such as Housekeeping services, furnishings, parking lot maintenance, etc..
And employees save on commuting, parking, eating out, etc., not having to go into the office for two or three days out of five would have been eagerly accepted during my own career. Bottom line, I just don't think the "Work from Home" argument is settled as of yet.
Finally, I think that a Wild Card in this is whether the city will allow criminals to victimize ridership on mass transit, including at the stations and on the streets. Because, they sure haven't discouraged carjackings and other street crime recently, largely in the name of "social justice". If people return to the trains and buses and don't feel safe, they won't ride, and that may be affecting NYC ridership as much as fear of catching the virus. Defund the CPD and watch what happens going forward, it won't be pretty. Once Chauvin is acquitted on the murder charges, it's likely to boil over again, and a lot of folks are going to throw in the towel on downtown Chicago for a long, long time. If that happens, look for a re-allocation in transportation funding from the trains that run downtown, to local buses in the neighborhoods, people will still need to get to and from hospitals, etc.. within the city. And since "downtown" is the economic engine of the city, there will be less money to go around for all the neighborhoods as well. Bottom line, I "mostly" agree with you, but only if the city protects commuters. Will they?
I would agree with you if the only factor were Covid. Because once the pandemic is over vis-a-vis immunizations and herd immunity, why wouldn't people use public transportation in the same way they did prior to Feb. 2020?
And even if you discount Remote Work as a reaction to Covid that will go away with the virus - but I'm not so sure about that, I think a significant number of employees who can work from home, will continue to do so, if only part-time - it's a significant savings to companies that can then have smaller facilities, lower utility costs, spend less on other amenities such as Housekeeping services, furnishings, parking lot maintenance, etc..
And employees save on commuting, parking, eating out, etc., not having to go into the office for two or three days out of five would have been eagerly accepted during my own career. Bottom line, I just don't think the "Work from Home" argument is settled as of yet.
Finally, I think that a Wild Card in this is whether the city will allow criminals to victimize ridership on mass transit, including at the stations and on the streets. Because, they sure haven't discouraged carjackings and other street crime recently, largely in the name of "social justice". If people return to the trains and buses and don't feel safe, they won't ride, and that may be affecting NYC ridership as much as fear of catching the virus. Defund the CPD and watch what happens going forward, it won't be pretty. Once Chauvin is acquitted on the murder charges, it's likely to boil over again, and a lot of folks are going to throw in the towel on downtown Chicago for a long, long time. If that happens, look for a re-allocation in transportation funding from the trains that run downtown, to local buses in the neighborhoods, people will still need to get to and from hospitals, etc.. within the city. And since "downtown" is the economic engine of the city, there will be less money to go around for all the neighborhoods as well. Bottom line, I "mostly" agree with you, but only if the city protects commuters. Will they?
I've long been annoyed myself, how I get this perception that the Chicago Police Transit Detail(the branch of CPD assigned to patrol the L) doesn't do enough to patrol the L system. It would make a HUGE fregging difference if it was NOT only during big events occurring nearby(i.e. Gay Pride Parade, Taste of Chicago, Lollapalooza, etc) where you saw cops standing on L platforms. Also I'd LOOOOOVE so very much to see cops walk between L cars, to enforce rules better that I see too many people(especially homless) ignore(i.e. being sneaky and smoking on an L train in service, gambling including those red ball games that are a scam and they con regular riders into playing, people playing crappy music from their phones too loudly, etc).
If you really want more people to trust riding the L system(especially late at night), the CPD Transit Detail should do a MUCH better job enforcing the rules on the L. That said sadly to say, I don't have faith that the CPD Transit Detail will start to crack down on rule breakers who do crap on moving L trains, that discourages riders(including myself) from wanting to ride the L, especially late at night. I know to me I'd MUCH rather ride an overnight CTA bus, over taking the L if it gets late at night.
I used the trains in Chicago once and they sure were a place to meet interesting people . All public transportation is dead now where I live and I doubt it will ever be as before because Covid is not going away anytime soon. I believe public transportation will be worse in the future because the people who have the means to afford other forms of transportation will do so.
I've long been annoyed myself, how I get this perception that the Chicago Police Transit Detail(the branch of CPD assigned to patrol the L) doesn't do enough to patrol the L system. It would make a HUGE fregging difference if it was NOT only during big events occurring nearby(i.e. Gay Pride Parade, Taste of Chicago, Lollapalooza, etc) where you saw cops standing on L platforms. Also I'd LOOOOOVE so very much to see cops walk between L cars, to enforce rules better that I see too many people(especially homless) ignore(i.e. being sneaky and smoking on an L train in service, gambling including those red ball games that are a scam and they con regular riders into playing, people playing crappy music from their phones too loudly, etc).
If you really want more people to trust riding the L system(especially late at night), the CPD Transit Detail should do a MUCH better job enforcing the rules on the L. That said sadly to say, I don't have faith that the CPD Transit Detail will start to crack down on rule breakers who do crap on moving L trains, that discourages riders(including myself) from wanting to ride the L, especially late at night. I know to me I'd MUCH rather ride an overnight CTA bus, over taking the L if it gets late at night.
The old story, "Ya can't have a cop on every corner!"
I think when all is said and done, 20% of commuters will be permanently shifted to remote work, or, to partial remote work where they commute 2-3 days a week instead of 4-5.
My bet is there is a gradual increase in ridership that peaks out at 80-85% of pre-covid numbers. Bad for their revenue, but great for seats on the train. I don't see expansion happening. But I don't see a major contraction either - maybe a couple fewer trains here and there.
"I believe a lasting economic recovery will come from local communities, and the people and small businesses that give them life,” Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and its parent company Alphabet, said in a news release. “Google wants to be a part of that recovery. That’s why we plan to invest over $7 billion in offices and data centers across the U.S. and create at least 10,000 new full-time Google jobs in the U.S. this year.”
The vast vast majority of employers think this way. Some people will still work from home but they will be outliers. People who aren't essential in terms of teamwork. Or maybe not essential at all and they will be trimmed.
I think when all is said and done, 20% of commuters will be permanently shifted to remote work, or, to partial remote work where they commute 2-3 days a week instead of 4-5.
My bet is there is a gradual increase in ridership that peaks out at 80-85% of pre-covid numbers. Bad for their revenue, but great for seats on the train. I don't see expansion happening. But I don't see a major contraction either - maybe a couple fewer trains here and there.
I think one part of this work-from-home thing people aren't thinking about is employers might rethink who is essential and who isn't. Why would I pay an American professional worker a six figure salary to sit at home when I can just contract that service out overseas? I could see a reduction in ridership, as you predict, but maybe not for the same reasons that the work-from-home proponents are thinking.
I would agree with you if the only factor were Covid. Because once the pandemic is over vis-a-vis immunizations and herd immunity, why wouldn't people use public transportation in the same way they did prior to Feb. 2020?
And even if you discount Remote Work as a reaction to Covid that will go away with the virus - but I'm not so sure about that, I think a significant number of employees who can work from home, will continue to do so, if only part-time - it's a significant savings to companies that can then have smaller facilities, lower utility costs, spend less on other amenities such as Housekeeping services, furnishings, parking lot maintenance, etc..
And employees save on commuting, parking, eating out, etc., not having to go into the office for two or three days out of five would have been eagerly accepted during my own career. Bottom line, I just don't think the "Work from Home" argument is settled as of yet.
Finally, I think that a Wild Card in this is whether the city will allow criminals to victimize ridership on mass transit, including at the stations and on the streets. Because, they sure haven't discouraged carjackings and other street crime recently, largely in the name of "social justice". If people return to the trains and buses and don't feel safe, they won't ride, and that may be affecting NYC ridership as much as fear of catching the virus. Defund the CPD and watch what happens going forward, it won't be pretty. Once Chauvin is acquitted on the murder charges, it's likely to boil over again, and a lot of folks are going to throw in the towel on downtown Chicago for a long, long time. If that happens, look for a re-allocation in transportation funding from the trains that run downtown, to local buses in the neighborhoods, people will still need to get to and from hospitals, etc.. within the city. And since "downtown" is the economic engine of the city, there will be less money to go around for all the neighborhoods as well. Bottom line, I "mostly" agree with you, but only if the city protects commuters. Will they?
This goes directly to our State's Attorney's office and it's bad policies IMO. I really hope that changes. Even Lightfoot has been grumbling about it.
I would submit, however, that with all the carjackings, you are probably safer on the CTA!
I think one part of this work-from-home thing people aren't thinking about is employers might rethink who is essential and who isn't. Why would I pay an American professional worker a six figure salary to sit at home when I can just contract that service out overseas? I could see a reduction in ridership, as you predict, but maybe not for the same reasons that the work-from-home proponents are thinking.
I think most places who want to do offshoring have already done so. A lot of companies are considering adjusting pay for people who don’t come into the office accordingly. If you work for a company in a high COL area and elect to move to a low COL area, there is no need for that company to continue to pay the high COL area salaries. Plus, a lot of companies that have offices in city centers are there to attract a certain type of talent. If they didn’t want that talent, they would likely relocate elsewhere.
I think most places who want to do offshoring have already done so. A lot of companies are considering adjusting pay for people who don’t come into the office accordingly. If you work for a company in a high COL area and elect to move to a low COL area, there is no need for that company to continue to pay the high COL area salaries. Plus, a lot of companies that have offices in city centers are there to attract a certain type of talent. If they didn’t want that talent, they would likely relocate elsewhere.
Yep exactly. Several tech companies going 100% remote work like Redfin have already announced they're adjusting pay based on COL of where you live...and employees are welcoming the lower pay if it means they get to choose where to live. The "offshore call center" model is now being applied to "onshore white collar jobs" in a way. We've worked with several companies to shift back office admin jobs out of high cost areas like NY/CA to lower cost centers like Ohio, NC, Florida, etc. Now that idea can be applied to higher paid white collar workers who can use Zoom, Teams, etc. and creates even greater efficiencies.
Agree with Kmans too that 20% of remote workers will stop using CTA...I actually put that number higher at likely 33% once covid settles out in a year or two.
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. All public transportation is dead now where I live and I doubt it will ever be as before because Covid is not going away anytime soon. I believe public transportation will be worse in the future because the people who have the means to afford other forms of transportation will do so.
