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Downtowns happened originally out of need. Then they slowed and came back not out of need, but because people liked them. All it would take is one generation to rediscover a love of the downtown lifestyle and they'll come back. Shows like Friends made city life attractive again. It can happen again.
Downtowns happened originally out of need. Then they slowed and came back not out of need, but because people liked them. All it would take is one generation to rediscover a love of the downtown lifestyle and they'll come back. Shows like Friends made city life attractive again. It can happen again.
That’s a good point, but if it takes a generation for downtown life as we know it to come back, that is a longtime and will change the fabric of the American city.
That’s a good point, but if it takes a generation for downtown life as we know it to come back, that is a longtime and will change the fabric of the American city.
The Central Area of Chicago (roughly defined by the Lake, North Ave, Halsted, and Cermak), has been adding people like crazy with around 240,000 people now. Just the Near North Side, which has River North, Streeterville, the Gold Coast, and Goose Island gained 45% in population 2010-2020 reaching nearly 40,000 ppsm. And more housing and more people just keep coming, even with the Pandemic.
The Central Area of Chicago (roughly defined by the Lake, North Ave, Halsted, and Cermak), has been adding people like crazy with around 240,000 people now. Just the Near North Side, which has River North, Streeterville, the Gold Coast, and Goose Island gained 45% in population 2010-2020 reaching nearly 40,000 ppsm. And more housing and more people just keep coming, even with the Pandemic.
Those are numbers from 2010-2020. This time period masks any impacts of COVID. You would need to look at the data from 2020-2022/2023 to get a sense of whether or not more “people just keep coming” during the COVID era.
Also, while it would be nice if people are moving in, what I’m getting at is that the traditional downtown hustle and bustle with business workers taking the train into work everyday and crowds of workers patronizing the mom and pop stores, delis, restaurants, etc. That is likely to be gone (or at least scaled back significantly) with a significantly larger remote or hybrid work crowd. You just won’t see the volume that you used to, which will impact businesses. Also the “hustle and bustle” feel of the work week crowds, which are part of the fabric of American downtowns will be significantly scaled back. Even if there does end up being moderate growth in the residential areas, the “feel/fabric” of the American downtown will not be the same.
Those are numbers from 2010-2020. This time period masks any impacts of COVID. You would need to look at the data from 2020-2022/2023 to get a sense of whether or not more “people just keep coming” during the COVID era.
Also, while it would be nice if people are moving in, what I’m getting at is that the traditional downtown hustle and bustle with business workers taking the train into work everyday and crowds of workers patronizing the mom and pop stores, delis, restaurants, etc. That is likely to be gone (or at least scaled back significantly) with a significantly larger remote or hybrid work crowd. You just won’t see the volume that you used to, which will impact businesses. Also the “hustle and bustle” feel of the work week crowds, which are part of the fabric of American downtowns will be significantly scaled back. Even if there does end up being moderate growth in the residential areas, the “feel/fabric” of the American downtown will not be the same.
I'm judging the population growth by what's still being constructed and how busy the streets around me in River North are. Way more foot traffic than there used to be, businesses are reopening or newly opening in spaces that were closed in the height of the Pandemic.
Even if COVID becomes endemic, unless there's another lockdown, I think things are recovering strongly for residential and entertainment uses.
Will/when will we see the Loop pushing over a half million jobs again? I don't know. But if residential grows and they move here partially for easy access to jobs, I see the office market recovering. Rents for commercial office space may stagnate, and there may be very little absorption of available space for a while, but I see it recovering if we really are past the worst of COVID.
Those are numbers from 2010-2020. This time period masks any impacts of COVID. You would need to look at the data from 2020-2022/2023 to get a sense of whether or not more “people just keep coming” during the COVID era.
Also, while it would be nice if people are moving in, what I’m getting at is that the traditional downtown hustle and bustle with business workers taking the train into work everyday and crowds of workers patronizing the mom and pop stores, delis, restaurants, etc. That is likely to be gone (or at least scaled back significantly) with a significantly larger remote or hybrid work crowd. You just won’t see the volume that you used to, which will impact businesses. Also the “hustle and bustle” feel of the work week crowds, which are part of the fabric of American downtowns will be significantly scaled back. Even if there does end up being moderate growth in the residential areas, the “feel/fabric” of the American downtown will not be the same.
One consideration is how much the going rate for office space is per square foot versus that for residential versus how much the cost for upkeep is. If office space was at a fairly high premium per square foot for residential and also fairly well above the cost of upkeep (i.e. pretty profitable), then there was a pretty large buffer for prices to be adjusted down and still be profitable and more so than conversion to residential. If the prices then start sliding down, but still higher than residential and cost of upkeep, then demand should start shifting upwards up to the point where one of the other two take over. That adjustment will take a while as no one wants to see their profits cut so would be hesitant to adjust downwards too quickly. Meanwhile, there are still proposals for office developments like this request for bumping up a Fulton Market development: https://urbanize.city/chicago/post/f...p-sterling-bay
I reckon it's been a bit of a saving grace for the Loop in at least the immediate short term that there was such a bump in residential construction.
CTA set to slash fares in bid to boost ridership.
Ridership at 50% of pre-pandemic levels.
2022 budget shortfall of about $386 million.
CTA is continuing to invest in infrastructure under the proposed budget.
Downtowns happened originally out of need. Then they slowed and came back not out of need, but because people liked them. All it would take is one generation to rediscover a love of the downtown lifestyle and they'll come back. Shows like Friends made city life attractive again. It can happen again.
Chicago experienced a major unprecedented boom, perhaps even its heyday, between roughly 1985 and 2014. After that, things started to change pretty noticeably.
While the pandemic certainly had a lot to do with that, changes in the tone of City life in Chicago go much deeper. Crime is now getting more widespread because the law enforcement practices which kept it contained or pushed it into the suburbs during peak gentrification - and which were ignored or even encouraged by affluent Chicago back then - are coming under scrutiny now due to the deaths of Michael Brown, Laquan McDonald, and George Floyd, and the resulting Defund the Police movement. For example...
Couple this with greater overall scrutiny on law enforcement and relaxed prosecution of various crimes by liberal prosecutors in blue cities and, well, there are going to be some fundamental changes. Popular high end hot spots in places like Logan Square, Old Town, Lincoln Park, Wicker Park are seeing an influx of people from the south and west sides who would previously have been afraid to go into those areas. Now they're very comfortable going there, and unfortunately that includes the negative elements of those groups. Anecdotally, I was just speaking with someone who works in the West Loop and she was telling me how drastically the clientele in the area has changed just over the last couple years, and how she is no longer wants to be there after dark.
I'm not here to make any moral judgments about any of this. But we do need to recognize the multi-faceted changes which are going on. Some will no doubt believe the tradeoffs are worth it (so long as they aren't impacted by it too directly I'll guess). Others will not and will take political action or rethink their lifestyle. But it always boils down to what kind of city you want to live in. The old way? Or one where there's more "social justice" but some significant drawbacks? I guess people will decide for themselves. It'll be interesting to see what census data shows over the next 5-10 years.
If one is a debbie-downer. I would not choose Lityke Village to live in cup have full and dropping fast life in. Just opinion.
People have been downplaying Chicago like all its history. From how dare them hicks think they could put on a World's Fair and most eras since. Take the riots of the 60s MLK and Bobby Kennedy assasinated and neighborhoods Burned literally with still empty lots from the awful era they endured. NYC was given a death in the 70s with every city service slashed. Times Square a XXX zone and downtown Chicago theaters even some showed XXX and shops. Yet Corporate America did not let it die. Big John came, Big Willie (Sears) and Big Stan (AON). New Yorkers even were surprised again that Chicago could too.
Maybe a nice Sunbelt city is calling one full of doubt?
On the CTA L. Who would have predicted it would even be in use 10+decades. Outside of Manhattan as a elevated, mighty NYC's survived. They have little choice as everyone could never own a car there being way too dense. Boston removed its El portion and Philly still has its. For a core, Chicago's surviving as many saw it then as a noisy relic and it almost was gone thru downtown in the 80s. I remember the almost that was not. Even with the narrowest train cars.
Young Professionals do not choose to gentrified neighborhoods and where it spreads. Cause they desire no L access. Times could change and they all want a car or bike or chose suburbs even. We all would luv a shiny new one and NYC certainly would. Take a decade or two and billions $$$. Why can Asian cities build literally new L lines with driverless trains. Cause they can and wanted to as a Nation or Government choosing it to make a international city. Not so divided Rural against its large cities.Time will tell.
Some rather give the whole city to have only doom left in a thread about the L. New mayors will even come and Presidents too. A Nation of the same gloom toward literal division if anyone wants to go there also to predict it is all downhill.
Chicago experienced a major unprecedented boom, perhaps even its heyday, between roughly 1985 and 2014. After that, things started to change pretty noticeably.
While the pandemic certainly had a lot to do with that, changes in the tone of City life in Chicago go much deeper. Crime is now getting more widespread because the law enforcement practices which kept it contained or pushed it into the suburbs during peak gentrification - and which were ignored or even encouraged by affluent Chicago back then - are coming under scrutiny now due to the deaths of Michael Brown, Laquan McDonald, and George Floyd, and the resulting Defund the Police movement. For example...
Couple this with greater overall scrutiny on law enforcement and relaxed prosecution of various crimes by liberal prosecutors in blue cities and, well, there are going to be some fundamental changes. Popular high end hot spots in places like Logan Square, Old Town, Lincoln Park, Wicker Park are seeing an influx of people from the south and west sides who would previously have been afraid to go into those areas. Now they're very comfortable going there, and unfortunately that includes the negative elements of those groups. Anecdotally, I was just speaking with someone who works in the West Loop and she was telling me how drastically the clientele in the area has changed just over the last couple years, and how she is no longer wants to be there after dark.
I'm not here to make any moral judgments about any of this. But we do need to recognize the multi-faceted changes which are going on. Some will no doubt believe the tradeoffs are worth it (so long as they aren't impacted by it too directly I'll guess). Others will not and will take political action or rethink their lifestyle. But it always boils down to what kind of city you want to live in. The old way? Or one where there's more "social justice" but some significant drawbacks? I guess people will decide for themselves. It'll be interesting to see what census data shows over the next 5-10 years.
I think it's entirely naive to think CPD practices that are now under fire had anything to do with crime. Are you seriously defending cops like Burges?
And the boom you describe includes some recessions and, very relevant even higher cringe than we have now. Yes, even with the recent spike it was worse in the 1990s.
Plus I think much of the crime today revolves around the fragmentation of the drug trade as the DEA and related agencies actually make some progress in drug interdiction.
I'm actually pro-decriminalization for all drugs, because a) you could avoid sending things like dirty, impure meth into the streets, and b) cut a lot of revenue away from criminal structures.
The crime in the 1990s was the crackdown on coke. This one is the crackdown on meth and opioids. There's little to do about it from the local level beyond anti-gang work in general, which is a slow process in a democratic society.
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