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NWS Jacksonville being conservative with next week's storm.
Tue Night/Wednesday...Cold airmass remains entrenched over the
region while long-range models dig shortwave trof into the North
GOMEX and track it across the FL Peninsula. This will set the
stage for developing low pressure in the Bahamas vicinity, still
too much uncertainty in how far NW precipitation shield will
extend into NE FL and coastal SE GA and into the colder airmass,
which would have the potential for frozen precip on the NW fringe
of this precip shield. ECMWF still looks too wet and too far NW
with precip shield and have leaned towards the slightly drier GFS
solution and have cut consensus pops in this time frame across NE
FL/coastal SE GA and for now have left out mention of any frozen
pcpn and just kept rainfall in forecast for now. Meanwhile at the
very least lows in the middle/upper 20s expected with Hard
Freeze/Freeze conds possible across SE GA and inland North FL Tue
Night and Highs still only rebounding into the 40s/lower 50s for
Wednesday. Timing of pcpn may be slightly shifting more towards a
Wednesday only scenario instead of Tue Night with better chances
of only rainfall event but still low confidence in any one
scenario this far out in time.
I didn't expect it to snow at all today, but we have a dusting. The roads and sidewalks are covered, but the grass still looks bare.
The snow started sticking immediately due to how cold it has been. It is currently 24F here and supposed to drop to 7F tonight. We are supposed to have single digit lows all the way through Friday.
I've been keeping track of the latest model updates. Newer runs are slowly shifting the low farther and farther west. Latest run now has snow along the SC coast Wed night.
with another cold front moving in [is it really a front?] tomorrow during the day will barely be any warmer than tonight. This is near Amherst, MA. Not a common pattern unless the front is strong. Winds gust around noon when the cold airmass moves in.
How often do we see this off NJ and Delaware coasts?
Quote:
Freezing Spray Advisory
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
718 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect until 4 AM EST Sunday. The Small
Craft Advisory is no longer in effect.
* Location...The Atlantic coastal waters of southern New Jersey
and Delaware and Lower Delaware Bay.
* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.
* Seas...3 to 5 feet.
* Freezing Spray...will become widespread Sunday morning with at
least moderate rates of accumulation by Sunday night.
* Timing...Gale-force wind gusts will occur overnight, with small
craft advisory conditions expected Sunday through Monday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended
that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor
prior to the onset of gale conditions.
A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate
accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in
freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels
be prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting
to sea or enter the advisory area.
Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains
free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not
impacted due to adverse weather conditions
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