Autumn/Fall 2017 Thread (Sept-Oct-Nov) (snowy, warm, record, temperature)

[nei]

Some thick fog to the east & south of me. Was still below 30 at 8:40. 30 degrees warmer at that time 3 days ago

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/928636019678867456

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

21.7°C with a dewpoint of 9.4°C at 9am Mountain Time

[BullochResident]

Looking at the current temperature maps, Florida really sticks out like a sore thumb. 80s there, 50s everywhere else across the southeast.

[antinimby]

^ Being surrounded by warm waters on three sides really helps with that.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by BullochResident

Looking at the current temperature maps, Florida really sticks out like a sore thumb. 80s there, 50s everywhere else across the southeast.

Originally Posted by antinimby

^ Being surrounded by warm waters on three sides really helps with that.

Nahh, its because of the front position. Its tough to drop that far south but its trying.


At the upper levels you have a cool northwesterly flow north of Florida while westerly over Florida. The airmass is cooler north of the front.


South Florida would be in the 70s if that front passed them while water temps would still be the same.


12:30pmEST map





Surface map

[Cambium]

NWS Melbourne

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1040 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Today Will be the Last Good Boating Day for a While...

Light and variable winds this morning underneath weak ridge axis
will turn onshore (E/NE) in a sea breeze this afternoon along the
coast. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water product shows a pocket of
higher moisture lifting north into the Treasure coast counties.
Interaction with the sea and Lake O breezes should generate a few
showers this afternoon in and around Martin county so have added a
small 20 PoP.

A weak cool front analyzed across north FL from Jacksonville to
Perry will not make much southward progress today; not until a short
wave trough passes offshore the GA/SC coast this evening. Do not
expect much if any precip with the front as it pushes down the
peninsula tonight but MOS guidance is indicating low clouds
(stratus) spreading south behind the front overnight and early Fri.

Did not make any changes to temps showing another warm day with
above normal highs in the mid 80s, lower 80s coast.

[AJ1013]

Originally Posted by Cambium

NWS Melbourne

Windy with showers starting this weekend, not that you can read my posts though since you ignore anyone who challenges you...

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Home will be on the southern edge of the parent storm in Ontario/Quebec and the Arctic front is pretty moisture starved but except a squall or flurry with the passing of it. Maybe Lake effects will reach down there too. Enjoy Northern PA.




Here's the NAM3km model snowfall total projections to tomorrow 1pm. It's depicting the Lake Effect snow bands well.


5000' level drops to -14C you can be sure that will kick start the Lake machines. Wonder if the locals are ready.


(I pieced together the regional views)

surprised lake effect isn't stronger, lake temperatures should be warm and upper air temperatures very cold. Lake Erie around 52°F / 11°C, so 25°C difference between water temperature and 5000'

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

surprised lake effect isn't stronger, lake temperatures should be warm and upper air temperatures very cold. Lake Erie around 52°F / 11°C, so 25°C difference between water temperature and 5000'

Me too. I thought we would see like 1-10 feet somewhere.. lol I cheated and checked NWS Buffalo discussion to see if they mention why. This is such a great discussion overall, I actually didn't know what to post, so here's the link to it. Incredible discussion all around and they do mention models have a tough time with Lake Effects


https://forecast.weather.gov/product...&highlight=off