Autumn/Fall 2016 Thread (Northern Hemisphere) (climate, warm, average, temperature)

[srfoskey]

These threads are usually created a few month in advance, so I figure it's time to start a fall thread.
Here are NOAA's fall temperature and precipitation forecasts for the U.S.


Meanwhile, it looks as though we will be transitioning into a La Nina. https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...ate-switcheroo
What are your thoughts?

[alex985]

Seems unlikely that the entire country will be above average during autumn....lol. I noticed the NWS/NOAA has huge warm bias when it comes to long-term forecasts.

[Warszawa]

I think the safe bet would be on a ridge over the PNW and a massive trough over New England and the mid-Atlantic, that's been the general pattern since 2014

[Saritra]

That map is horrifying. I think we're going to see more of that ridge/trough thing, but not necessarily the same way as in the past.

[Cambium]

Ahhhh, Fall. While Summer hasn't been bad....yet (Still only June 12th), I cant wait for Fall.


We'll have to look at some analogs of Sept-Oct-Nov that were in La Nina mode


CFS got last winter right many months in advance being above normal but we all know Long range forecasts is a Heads or Tails kinda thing anyway. That's why I like analogs better

[B87]

So we have another month and a half to go until autumn begins. What do you think it will have in store?

[Thunder98]

Originally Posted by B87

So we have another month and a half to go until autumn begins. What do you think it will have in store?

Trees will change color

[B87]

Yep, usually the grass is green again by mid-September, and then leaves start changing in mid-late October.

I've got a feeling that the upcoming autumn won't be very good. September will be average, but a cool October and November to follow.

[ben86]

I won't notice much difference when autumn comes if summer carries on like this





It wouldn't surprise me at all if the first half of autumn was the most benign and settled part of the year and the second half was way above average and really stormy again.

[Botev1912]

I think it will be below average here because of LA Nina, but it could be drier than normal.