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One of the worst things to read in the discussion especially in March. lol
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
356 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017
The trend over the last few model cycles is for this system to pass to the south with little impact to the local area. On the
deterministic models, the height field across the eastern US does
not have enough time to recover behind the strong upper low and
there is little amplification being depicted over the western
states. This means the low slides to the south and off the coast.
However, there is a large degree of spread within the GEFS and ECMWF
EPS with several members showing a bit more amplification and thus a
further north track. There are many features at play for the
upcoming weekend, and many of them currently lie over a data sparse
region, so do not want to sway too far from previous forecast. We
are likely to continue to see run to run changes within the
deterministic and ensembles for the next few days. Thus, will
continue with chance PoPs for snow late Saturday night into Sunday.
The system departs offshore Sunday night with high pressure
returning Monday..
Here's from NWS Washington DC area. They are going with the 2nd or 3rd scenario they mentioned. Projected Strong High to the North making this thing go south, south, south.
Quote:
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
325 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017
A shortwave in the northern stream of the jet will dive
southeast out of the northern Rockies into the Plains Saturday
while another shortwave in the southern stream tracks through
the southern Plains. These systems will phase together...developing coastal low pressure off the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday night. The coastal low will move out
to sea on Sunday.
Over the last 24-hours...guidance has shifted significantly south with the track of this system.
Yesterday at this time...there were three scenarios.
One was that the low would cut to our west bringing rain to our area.
The second is that the low would develop along the Mid-Atlantic Coast while cold air was filtering in...bringing snow to the area.
The third was that the low would develop too far south and it would remain cold and dry across our area.
As of now...it appears that the there is a much higher likelihood for second or third scenario later Saturday into Sunday.
The southward trend in the guidance has not stopped with the latest 00z runs...and with the strong high to our north and
confluent flow to our north this does support a farther
southward track. Also...these two shortwaves will be weak to
begin with so that enhances the chance for a farther southward
track. Therefore...it appears that there is a slightly higher
chance for significant precipitation amounts to remain to our
south but confidence remains very low at this time. Keep in mind
that the systems that potentially would be impacting the area
are way out in the Pacific Ocean. Guidance should get a better
handling over the next few days as they approach the western
CONUS. Will continue to mention the threat for accumulating snow this weekend in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
High pressure will build overhead later Sunday into
Monday...bringing dry and chilly conditions.
^^
That would be in line with what Bernie thinks, he missed the early Jan storm though; he said it would stay south but it ended up shifting far nw. The Temps in my forecast look to warm for snow. 06z gfs looks warmer and further north, we will see in a few minutes what it says ...
^^
That would be in line with what Bernie thinks, he missed the early Jan storm though; he said it would stay south but it ended up shifting far nw. The Temps in my forecast look to warm for snow. 06z gfs looks warmer and further north, we will see in a few minutes what it says ...
GFS 6z is delayed I believe I read. Now comes timing issue. If happens during the day I don't think there would be much snow even in Virginia. We'll see. I hope this thing trends north starting today! Stupid High up north. Tell it to weaken a little. lol
Wonder if mountains of TN and NC will see much. I haven't checked the mid level temps much
So ChicagoGeorge, me and Nei might get screwed out of this.
WildCat15 and ... I forget who's in the DC area is in the game for snow now.
GFS ramps it up... even more... something feels wrong with this, I don't think the GFS has gotten the memo... it's MID MARCH UV index is 6 at the time of storm... it shows heavy snow with Temps well above freezing... wth... once we factor in ground Temps half that snow is gone anyways...
Lexington's forecast should start to have some snowflakes in it. GFS has a snowstorm Saturday afternoon/evening. Note Chicago now too far north for even the northern fringe of the precip shield.
Then... The storm exits North Carolina. This is Sunday lunchtime frame. Snowstorm going on in Northern North Carolina and DC area. NONE FOR NYC.
here's the 24hr snow totals from this update. (using 10:1 ratios)
AAANNNNNNDDDDD Chicago yet again gets screwed out of snow. Snow drought continues... This weekend was likely our last best shot at +1" snow. But who knows...
Steve has made some horrible calls this winter and in the past but he's calling this one dead I assume for north of DC? Or for a coastal snow storm in general? Which I would agree with. But Its still gonna snow for some folks in VA to maybe NJ so not sure why he's avoiding that.
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This is Sunday lunchtime frame. Snowstorm going on in Northern North Carolina and DC area. NONE FOR NYC. 
