Spring Thread 2017: Northern Hemisphere (warm, average, rainfall, Chicago)
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It can't be that since the hills were in all probability there before 2011.
Then not sure how it can be that Rochester has been above average since then in April while we have been below average each year. A couple of years it has been close, but -1.0 is still below average whether you like it or not. Similar in a way that May 2016 is still above average despite the negative anomalies the first three weeks
Then not sure how it can be that Rochester has been above average since then in April while we have been below average each year. A couple of years it has been close, but -1.0 is still below average whether you like it or not. Similar in a way that May 2016 is still above average despite the negative anomalies the first three weeks
The warmth was probably centered farther west or the cold centered farther east those years. It's also likely that there were local variations where +0.5 in Rochester turns into -0.5 in Binghamton as not everywhere will have the same anomaly.
The seasonable weather this week has dropped BGM to just +4.3 above average, still good for the 3rd warmest on record. Looking at the week ahead we should be able to pull back into second quite easily. The +6.1 from 2010 is a bit of a stretch, but well in reach with the warmth ahead. LGA is at +4.8 which is more than good enough for second warmest ever, and very close to the warmest ever too
Then not sure how it can be that Rochester has been above average since then in April while we have been below average each year. A couple of years it has been close, but -1.0 is still below average whether you like it or not. Similar in a way that May 2016 is still above average despite the negative anomalies the first three weeks
I'm just saying the hills can't be to blame for differences since 2011. The hills were there before 2011; they're still there; they actually haven't changed. So any anomaly since 2011* must not be related to the hills.
Another way to express this is that the Binghamton averages take the hills into the account: any effect from the hills is built in.
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*Would be nice to see references since there's all sorts of conflicting figures being tossed around.
Pretty close overall, but in 2013 and 2015 Binghamton had quite a bit colder anomalies than Rochester. Which explains why Rochester was above average while Binghamton was below in thos years
Pretty close overall, but in 2013 and 2015 Binghamton had quite a bit colder anomalies than Rochester. Which explains why Rochester was above average while Binghamton was below in thos years
Cool, thanks. Looks just like random sampling to me but hard to tell with such a small sample.
However, even if Binghamton did get the short straw for a couple of years, that by itself doesn't support the assertion that "for people in the Northeast, this is the first above average April in half a decade".
I did find this map for April 2015. At the very least it illustrates Rochester in a red zone, Binghamton in blue. As far as the Northeast goes, I guess it depends where you draw the line but most of the major cities are in a red zone. However it's comparing to 20th century averages, not last 30 years.
Last edited by Ed's Mountain; 04-24-2017 at 08:33 PM..
Reason: Punctuation
We're supposed to have a high in the upper 80s tomorrow followed by a high in the mid 50s on Wednesday. I feel like that's what summer in Melbourne must be like.
Cool, thanks. Looks just like random sampling to me but hard to tell with such a small sample.
However, even if Binghamton did get the short straw for a couple of years, that by itself doesn't support the assertion that "for people in the Northeast, this is the first above average April in half a decade".
He's actually right and I didn't realize that.. Many of us in the northeast/New England haven't had an above normal April since 2012. There were pockets in 13 & 14 but overall was cool for the region.
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