Spring Thread 2017: Northern Hemisphere (snow, hottest, warm, record)
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I posted a similar map earlier today in this thread. I'm not sure what makes these areas so special that they are under such risks. Or why every spring storm system has to have such risks. https://www.city-data.com/forum/47704804-post1715.html
That would be pretty similar to Lexington, no? Except slightly more continental.
Well, sort of. Northern KY gets more snow (and probably less likely to be on the line and be at risk for an ice storm), and I'd like summers to be a bit hotter and more reliable.
Did you know Lexington had ZERO 90F days in 2004? And also in 1974.
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What % of winter days would you say have snow cover there, like 35%?
The 1981-2010 average days with a snow depth during meteorological winter is 9, which is 10%, with one additional day in March. Of course, it can vary quite a lot. This year was just 4 days in January.
I posted a similar map earlier today in this thread. I'm not sure what makes these areas so special that they are under such risks. Or why every spring storm system has to have such risks. https://www.city-data.com/forum/47704804-post1715.html
Moderate risk hasn't been so widespread across the NWS LCH region since the Christmas outbreak of 2012.
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DISCUSSION...
500 hPa height analysis shows a shortwave trough centered over the
Desert Southwest this morning and a weak ridge axis currently over
the Mississippi River Valley. This weak ridge will result in one
more quiet weather day before the 500 hPa shortwave trough is
forecast to dig into Central Texas today and into Sunday morning.
The surface low developing in response to the approaching trough
will result in increasing southerly and south easterly winds
during the day today. The resulting warm, moist return flow
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a
unstable atmosphere developing over the region. Additionally,
strengthening wind fields in advance of the trough and surface low
will result in an environment very favorable for the development
of organized convection. Latest model guidance has come into a
greater consensus and the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the
western two thirds of the CWA to a Moderate Risk on Sunday. (A
quick look through SPC`s severe weather events archive would
suggest that the last time this much of the area was under a
Moderate Risk was during the Christmas Day 2012 severe weather
outbreak.)
Tomorrow's severe potential is looking quite concerning. I wonder if a high risk will end up being issued.
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...SUMMARY...
Dangerous severe thunderstorms capable of strong tornadoes,
extensive wind damage and hail are possible beginning Sunday morning
east of I-35 in Texas and developing eastward across Louisiana
throughout the day and into the night. Severe storms are also
possible across the Arklatex during the day and into western
Mississippi by Monday morning.
...Synopsis...
Low pressure will gradually translate northeastward through the
period with a cold front to the west, from the lower Rio Grande
Valley Sunday morning into Arkansas by Monday morning. Ahead of the
low, a warm front will rapidly lift northward across east Texas
toward the Arklatex and extend into southern Mississippi by 00Z.
Across the warm sector, a very moist and unstable air mass will
exist, characterized by upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints, beneath
cooling profiles aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates. This volatile
air mass will exist over a large area, suggesting potential for
widespread severe weather.
Both mid and high-level southwesterly flow aloft will increase
throughout the period as the upper trough moves northeastward across
TX. The northward transport of moisture and instability will be
aided by a broad, southerly low-level jet which will increase to 50
kt by late afternoon and will shift eastward across the lower MS
valley overnight. This will create strong, veering winds with height
which will clearly favor significant severe thunderstorms including
tornadic supercells, damaging bows, and quasi-linear convective
systems. The severe threat is expected to begin by mid morning
across central and northern Texas, and evolve/expand eastward
through the rest of the period to near the Mississippi river by 12Z
Monday.
Tomorrow's severe potential is looking quite concerning. I wonder if a high risk will end up being issued.
Flash Flood Watches extend from Texas to Mississippi.
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..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a
* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Louisiana and southeast
Texas, including the following areas, in Louisiana, Acadia,
Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, East Cameron,
Evangeline, Iberia, Jefferson Davis, Lafayette, Lower St.
Martin, Rapides, St. Landry, St. Mary, Upper St. Martin,
Vermilion, Vernon, and West Cameron. In southeast Texas,
Hardin, Jefferson, Northern Jasper, Northern Newton, Orange,
Southern Jasper, Southern Newton, and Tyler.
* From Sunday morning through Monday morning
* Rain amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Isolated amounts up
to 8 inches will be possible.
Tomorrow's severe potential is looking quite concerning. I wonder if a high risk will end up being issued.
You know, while the cause of severe weather potential for is well explained, there isn't much in the way of what would suddenly make the threat die down for, say, areas farther east.
Tuesday looks likely to be first 86 degree day, late next week looks even warmer. Many 90s I imagine across the south.
86F is forecast here on Tuesday per Wunderground. NWS only shows 83F and that's the warmest in the forecast.
We reached 86F back on Feb 12, and haven't exceeded that yet this year.
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