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What an excellent graphic by The Weather Channel. Finally! A Graphic that resembles modern times. We need to start seeing more of these 3D forecast graphics.
Discussion: Posting entire thing since it's all interesting. Also keep an eye out for snow melt flooding next week. NWS saying 2-4 FEET in the mountains!
Quote:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
356 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
BIG WEATHER CHANGES COMING TODAY AS STRONG AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...AND IS NOW ALONG A LINE FROM AURORA AND
STRETCHING EAST TO NORTH OF LIMON. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S NORTH AND 60S OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO. MOISTURE IS ALREADY DEEPENING OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
THIS WILL WORK INTO OUR MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND AND BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS.
DUE TO THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS MINIMAL OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR BUT STILL A THREAT OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN ELBERT....LINCOLN AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. SURFACE BASED CAPES UP TO ABOUT 1500J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT INCREASING QG ASCENT THROUGH THE DAY AND MAX LIFT EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL EXPAND OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP WILL START AS RAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE PLAINS AND THEN
MIXING WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY ALL SNOW OVER
THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. AS FOR THE HILITES...WILL
UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ZONES 38..39..41 AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT BUT HAVE DELAYED THE START OF THE WARNING FOR ZONES 40 AND
43...INCLUDING DENVER UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. OTHER CHANGE TO
THE HILITES WAS TO UPGRADE ZONE 37 TO A WARNING DUE TO INITIAL
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY BUT CONTINUE TO
BRING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
LIKELY BE AT A MAXIMUM DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS MODERATE
TO STRONG QG LIFT IS OVERHEAD. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE IN THE HALF
TO POCKETS OF TWO INCH PER HOUR RANGE DURING THIS TIME. MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL SEE PRECIP FALL AS A WET AND HEAVY SNOW EXCEPT FOR
AREAS EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR ALL RAIN. THIS CHANGE OVER LINE IS
STILL DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR EASTERN WELD COUNTY...MORGAN AND EASTERN ARAPAHOE AND ADAMS
COUNTIES TO SHOW THE UNCERTAINTY. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE SNOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ACCORDING
TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NORTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING UP TO 30
MPH...HOWEVER BLOWING SNOW OFF THE GROUND WILL BE DIFFICULT OVER
THE PLAINS DUE TO THE SNOW BEING WET AND HEAVY.
STILL...VISIBILITIES WILL BE IMPACTED FROM HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY SEE RAIN MIX IN DURING THE DAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO START HEADING NORTH VERY SLOWLY SUNDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY AT LIGHTER RATES BEFORE IT REALLY STARTS DIMINISHING MONDAY...DOWN TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BY TUESDAY. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE EXPECTED LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FROM THIS STORM. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE RECEIVED AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE URBAN CORRIDOR MAY SEE A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF WET SNOW...WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST SEEING 2 TO 12 INCHES. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. ONE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...CLOSE TO 6 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND SOILS FOR FLOOD ISSUES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MELT THE RECENT SNOW. CONCERNS MAY
TURN TO RIVERS AS SNOWMELT DRAINS INTO THE RIVER SYSTEM.
What an excellent graphic by The Weather Channel. Finally! A Graphic that resembles modern times. We need to start seeing more of these 3D forecast graphics.
Nice graphics!! We need someone to get us some pics in a week or so with snowcapped mountains.
Keep it away from us. I wonder what our summers are like when Chicago has a really hot summer. Can you give us some analog summers.
I took a peak at NOWData and couldn't find a summer where Chicago was warmer than normal and NYC wasn't. Such a scenario likely has happened before, it just doesn't appear to be common.
Keep it away from us. I wonder what our summers are like when Chicago has a really hot summer. Can you give us some analog summers.
Here are some analogs for current SST conditions. Not all were hot, but 1936, 1983, and 1988 were scorchers.... The rest generally average to above average.
A few more years not using any analog conditions (early 1900's I used Aurora 27 miles from where MDW is located because MDW did not exist).
Forgot about 1934
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 04-15-2016 at 10:30 AM..
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