Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Moderate Risk tomorrow. I think this is the highest risk issued since the Dec 23 outbreak in the northern MS, west TN area.
Similar area at risk as Christmas Day 2012.
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...
A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
PERIOD. A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
BANDS. WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/. DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.
...COASTAL SC...
A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM SPREADS INLAND AND ACTS TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.
..SMITH.. 02/22/2016
Oh, i knew tomorrow was gonna be interesting. Even though where i am is not expected to get the worst of it, i can't wait to be on TVNWeather from when the first watch is issued to the end of it all.
A little baffled at the weekend forecast. Did the models change their thinking about the cold coming down?
I give up. Bring on Spring.
State College, PA went from a high of 29 forecast for Sunday to a high of 52, lol. Clearly the cold pool is shallower than they originally thought. A certain sign of spring.
A little baffled at the weekend forecast. Did the models change their thinking about the cold coming down?
I give up. Bring on Spring.
Checking the GFS, it appears a strong cold airmass aloft arrives Friday and Saturday early morning, but gets pushed out quickly and the flow becomes zonal by late Saturday afternoon. Previous GFS run had it sticking the whole weekend.
A little baffled at the weekend forecast. Did the models change their thinking about the cold coming down?
I give up. Bring on Spring.
This February has a chance to be warmer than last March here, which is pretty impressive. Average high last March was 34.3, this month it's 34, and by the last week it should warm up even more
Do I hear birds chirping outside? Never heard that this early before here
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Did the models change their thinking about the cold coming down? 
