Winter Thread 2015-16 (Northern Hemisphere) (snow, recorded, temperatures, days)

[BullochResident]

Clouds moved in around a couple hours ago and it just started sprinkling out. The forecast originally called for clear skies this evening. What happened?

[ral31]

Some severe risk tomorrow. Forecast high tomorrow is 68F.



...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION FROM FAR SERN TX TO
THE FL PNHDL...
CONVECTION -- INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS NERN
TX AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY -- SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE/INTENSIFY WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY...AS A LOW SHIFTS EWD OUT OF TX
ALONG AN INITIALLY W-E SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH TIME...AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS RAPIDLY SEWD/EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HELP TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE NWD.
THE INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LA/SRN MS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
INTO SRN AL/THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RESPONSE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND FIELD INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
STORMS. THUS...A FEW OF THE WARM SECTOR STORMS NEAR THE LOW/AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR BY
AFTERNOON...WITH RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL
ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. OVERNIGHT...THE WIND/TORNADO RISK WILL
SPREAD EWD ACROSS MS INTO AL/THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR MODES POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS. WHILE SLIGHT RISK/15% PROBABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ATTM...A CORRIDOR OF GREATER RISK COULD BECOME APPARENT IN LATER
FORECASTS...POSSIBLY WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO A HIGHER RISK AREA.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Hmm



https://twitter.com/commoditywx/stat...71392800673792

Yeah, until the SSW event kills that. These long range forecasts are not worth the paper or screen they are written on lol. Pure bunk. We heard the same thing last year on AccuW. I distinctly remember Paul Pastolek or whatever his name is saying Feb would be warmer than Jan and have no real Arctic outbreaks. Yeah right.

[chicagogeorge]

^^

You've said it yourself, we have too many teleconnections at play here.... Hard to tell what on earth will happen.


Here is our local write-up on the blizzard that may slam the east coast this weekend



Washington, Philadelphia and New York in path of powerhouse, winter storm; blizzard and near hurricane-force coastal wind gusts predicted; Friday lake snow showers here | Chicago Weather Center: Skilling's Forecast and Chicago Severe Weather Ale

[ral31]

The severe risk here has been upgraded to "enhanced" by the SPC.

From NWS Lake Charles

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR A SEVERE THREAT EVOLVING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NOW ENCOMPASSED THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...WITH A MORE CONCERNING ENHANCED
RISK FOR MUCH OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALL INGREDIENTS
COMING TOGETHER INCLUDING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES MAXING
OUT FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 50 TO 70 KNOTS.
1-3 KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 200-300. ROTATING STORMS EXPECTED.
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE IN PLAY.

[OptimusPrime69]

Cool and sunny in Miami this morning. 64 degrees at 8:53am.

[ASOT]

Wow, 40" in Western VA? That's quite an increase from the model runs I've seen. I'm guessing there might be a few isolated spots where the accumulation comes close to that. Either way my friends and family out there will enjoy it.

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

^^

You've said it yourself, we have too many teleconnections at play here.... Hard to tell what on earth will happen.


Here is our local write-up on the blizzard that may slam the east coast this weekend



Washington, Philadelphia and New York in path of powerhouse, winter storm; blizzard and near hurricane-force coastal wind gusts predicted; Friday lake snow showers here | Chicago Weather Center: Skilling's Forecast and Chicago Severe Weather Ale

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by ASOT

Wow, 40" in Western VA? That's quite an increase from the model runs I've seen. I'm guessing there might be a few isolated spots where the accumulation comes close to that. Either way my friends and family out there will enjoy it.

It's the higher elevations that may see 40"+

[Wildcat15]

Why did Lexington record 2.5" of snow and 0.22" of precipitation the other day? There was no rain, only snow. Where does the precipitation number come from?

[ral31]

Under a tornado watch until 7 PM.