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model runs were initialized over the ocean, 12Z runs will be over land. They're probably out already but not analyzed yet by meteorologists. NWS Boston discussion, they summarize a number of models in the earlier discussion in a rather technical way.
KEEP IN MIND THE JET ENERGY THAT FORMS THIS EAST COAST WINTER STORM
WAS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST AT MODEL INITIALIZATION TIME (00Z/20)
THUS INITIALIZED OVER THE OCEAN. THIS BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY WILL
BE ENTERING THE ROCKIES BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SAMPLED
BETTER GIVEN THE LAND BASED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK. THEREFORE
EXPECTING 12Z MODEL RUNS TODAY TO BEGIN CONVERGING TOWARD A COMMON
SOLUTION. GIVEN THE ABOVE ATTRIBUTES WILL CONTINUE TO BASE THE
WEEKEND FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND WITH EMPHASIS ON THE EPS TO KEEP
CONTINUITY AND PRECLUDE LARGE SWINGS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THAT
SAID THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MA AND RI...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF NORTHWARD.
GIVEN THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND TIME RANGE HERE STILL
HAVE TO LEAVE ALL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES /INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS/ IN PLAY
UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE/CLUSTER ON A GIVEN SOLUTION.
Our nights have been warmer than average, and the first few days were so warm the month is still above average
Yeah, we are about a degree and a half below average so far. Still it will be a tall order to erase the double digit positive anomalies that December had.
I didn't have one with me, but we drove to Maggie Valley, NC the next day and there was some snow there! It was really pretty seeing the trees covered with snow right next to a waterfall. The temperature that day was in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
There are snow flurries in Chapel Hill right now. So this is the second time it's snowed this winter (last time was on Sunday), but it probably won't accumulate this time either.
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