Winter Thread 2015-16 (Northern Hemisphere) (Montana, warmest, recorded, temperatures)

[Wildcat15]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Wait a minute..... whats that???? A sky? Cant be.
Trough digging and swinging into the East, Clouds pushing off shore. Praise the Lord!!

Still overcast here.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by nei

despite the AO index dropping, models haven't decided on whether we'll get cold. Monday and Tuesday look seasonably cold, but not lasting that long.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...64779626598400

Yeah a lot of disagreement with the models now

After a couple of seasonally cold days, the first 10 days of January will be above average






Checkout the prong of mild air reaching into thr Arctic




Cold open to 2016 follows mildest December in 92 years with more than twice the normal precipitation; December finishes 6th wettest since 1870; Pacific air

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/stat...19752930537472

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...91087823450112

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by antinimby

Has anybody ever kept track of and studied how accurate those extended forecast models turn out to be?

Yes, there is something called Skill Scores. I keep forgetting to save the link. Basically Euro outperforms any other. Past 10 days the percentages of being accurate drop of course

They are all picking up on an Eastern Trough with cold coming and not just in and out, they keep coming in. Unlike what has happened lately.

Originally Posted by G8RCAT

Still overcast here.

Yup... posted in the Photo thread what happened here. Still and will be cloudy again today.

[Cambium]

Posted Dec 27th 7 days before it will happen

Originally Posted by Cambium

Colder after this week.
Lake Effect will be on again next weekend into the week

Entire Northeast Stays below freezing during the day.


Says the Euro

Sure enough we got Lake effect happening this weekend and the cold shot coming. Who needs forecasts!

[Wildcat15]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Yup... posted in the Photo thread what happened here. Still and will be cloudy again today.

Your clouds have more definition. Here it's pretty much just flat gray.

[nei]

We're starting to get some breaks in the clouds now, around 10 am the sun came out then clouded over again

[Cambium]

This ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓


Complete pattern change. One might say Abrupt?


Hartford Data from GFS next 16 days. First, 508 DAM Tuesday? Yeah, Vortex gotta be somewhere close. Surface struggles past freezing for multiple days. Below freezing at 850mb till Wednesday then a 1 day break above freezing then back down to seasonable.... Then another strong trough dives into the East mid month and below normal we go..


499 DAM?? Yeah, Vortex getting closer.


As I said.. No more well above normal/warm days anymore. Complete change going on.


So instead of having more warm days then seasonable. We're having more cold days then seasonable. January might end up below normal if that continues all month.





Think it's just Harford? No..


Here's Philly's Data

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Now .......... Finally a Snowstorm in Northeast around Jan 11th?

Euro says yes.
GFS keeps storm south

Will wait a couple days to start thread for Jan 11th Storm...


New Euro12z this afternoon has the storm. This scenario would be a rainstorm for here and the coast even MA, but notice what is near the Lakes... another storm. They are about to merge and blow up off the coast.


Euro doesn't go past this time frame so its the last frame available.


This would be a Rain to snowstorm for the coast and MA. Big snowstorm for interior