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Yesterday max temps. Keep that heat border up! lol Always fun when the heat/ 80s stops at NYC or CT/NY border. That will change tomorrow and there after with more 80s into New England.
Washington DC hit 88F yesterday. 2nd highest for this month. They hit 90s 8 times this year already. 7 times in May which was 3rd most on record!
We caught a bit of luck after all this morning, got hit with a small but productive cell that put down close to a half inch. Couple of decent house-shaking thunder, but no wind. I'll take what I can get.
Current temp 77, dp 71. Can anyone say "humid"?...lol.
Right now at 11 AM it's 88 F (31 C) with a 68 F DP (20 C). This year the dew points seem a bit low. That could be the reason thunderstorm activity hasn't been the usual. I'm getting so tired of the weather down here.....
Right now at 11 AM it's 88 F (31 C) with a 68 F DP (20 C). This year the dew points seem a bit low. That could be the reason thunderstorm activity hasn't been the usual. I'm getting so tired of the weather down here.....
DPs have been pretty tolerable here so far but that's because we haven't gotten a true heat surge yet. Today is highest in a week I think. Mid 60s. Muggy but only 70s air temp
Sun just popped out. Uh Oh. Atmosphere going to destabilize now. Ugh
Satellite catching it well at the CT Panhandle with the cloud breakup.. Storm in NJ there about to enter NY
Monthly Model Outlook into the Fall
June 8, 2015; 10:40 PM ET
Below is my latest interpretation of the monthly ECMWF forecast model output. I made some slight adjustments to the temperature and precipitation maps based on the projected upper-level flow pattern as well. In some cases, the model temperature or precipitation output did not make sense based on the projected upper flow pattern.
Personal comments.....
1. Confidence remains higher than normal for above to well above-normal temperatures across a large part of western Canada through the Fall and likely the winter as well. Wildfire season off to fast start and I see no reason at this point to argue against a very active wildfire season into early Fall.
2. The ECMWF ENSO plume forecast is still calling for a strong category El Nino peaking around +2.4 in early winter. However, last month's outlook for late Fall had an even strong El Nino predicted which seemed too high at the time and thus we feel the slight downward shift in the ONI number (the higher the number the stronger the El Nino) makes sense, especially based on recent developments in the Pacific.
3. Agree with the model on the cooler/wetter pattern for the U.S. Rockies into Fall, but could see how it is a little wetter over California by October.
4. Feel that July will be a little wetter in the Canadian Rockies with above-normal thunderstorm activity.
5. Model is still confident with the drier/less tropical activity scenario into Fall across the Atlantic/Caribbean basin and I agree. However, we must watch out for systems that form closer to the Southeast U.S. coast. or what we call "home-grown" storms.
6. I can see slightly wetter conditions in BC during July than what the model shows before it turns drier again in August.
7. If there is going to be a cooler region compared to normal during the summer/early Fall I would favor northern Quebec into Atlantic Canada over any other region in the southern half of Canada.
8. A clear majority of long range forecast models are signaling widespread above normal temperatures across much of Canada the first half of winter with the core of the above normal temperatures centered over the West and Prairies. This would also mean that this coming winter would be much different than last winter across eastern Canada in terms of temperatures. Time will tell.
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