2014-15 Winter Thread (Northern Hemisphere) (warm, warming, temperature, Chicago)

[ohioaninsc]

Most of Ohio got 3-5" of snow this morning...about 4" here in the Columbus area...arctic blast working its way in now.

[chicagogeorge]

Europe might be getting a cold December if CFS is correct



MQI analog for Europe and it’s looking very similar to the latest CFS forecast.

[chicagogeorge]

Well get ready people it looks like the European model is forecasting a major stratospheric warming event in December!

Is A MAJOR Split in The Polar Vortex Possible?

Forecast models show major warming for the early portion of December over the KEY region that would favor major cold back into the United States. The European forecast model shows the split in the Vortex with a piece floating over Eastern North America and another over Europe.

A MAJOR Split In The Polar Vortex - ABC2News.com

[Summerwhale]

So what does that mean for ME?

[irlinit]

Originally Posted by Summerwhale

So what does that mean for ME?

Same old subarctic mild trash.

[chicagogeorge]

^^

Probably nothing although it depends where the split occurs

The location of the Stratospheric warming is KEY in figuring out where the polar vortex will be split and allowed to move south. If the warming event is located over Russia/China then its game on for MAJOR United States cold. However, if its over Canada then the polar air is favorable over the western US or central Atlantic Ocean.

It looks like if there is going to be a SSW event, it's going to happen over Russia, and that means cold here like last January, but the cold wave might start in early December instead of January as it did last year

There is already tremendous stress on the Polar Vortex over Siberia.

[Summerwhale]

But it says the vortex will go to Europe. People on UK forums have been harpering on for weeks saying its gonna get cold when the vortex moves!

[chicagogeorge]

^^

A piece of the vortex will flow west into Eastern Europe, the other over North America. You get nothing unless there is a Greenland blocking high

[Summerwhale]

Thanks.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Summerwhale

Thanks.

Well that's basically your predominant cold source region right? And if you look at my earlier post from the other day, CFS is predicting blocking over Greenland in December which might mean more cold for you.