2014-15 Winter Thread (Northern Hemisphere) (snowfall, record, temperatures, 2015)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Kamsack

Photos from northwestern MN and northeastern ND

Nice! I saw the metars earlier showing it was snowing and it still shows it over MN and ND.

From WSI Energy

"A follow up: Expect snow-cover to rise across the US over the next 14 days as a series of cold air masses impact the lower 48."

And here's NASA MODIS image showing the snow capped Colorado Rockies.

[chicagogeorge]

Check out Australia's latest computer model output for chances of El Nino.... It barely crosses the threshold if at all this winter.







El Nino Prospects Flatline Say BoM Models

[chicagogeorge]

Gotta love Bastardi


https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/s...54157668200448

[Isleofpalms85]

I don't give A hoot what the Australian computer models are saying, I will find out what the chances are for an el nino winter tomorrow from the National weather service and see whaaat they are saying as far as en so is concerned. a major surge of arctic air is a pretty good bet for next week though, especially the middle to latter portion of next week hope your happy.

[chicagogeorge]

^^

They aren't really Australian climate models, but the Aussie Met agency surveyed the most recent data from the models and came up with this assessment. Seems like a very weak El Nino for the winter, with only a possible chance of reaching moderate levels next summer.

.

Most of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that central Pacific Ocean SSTs will approach or just surpass El Nino thresholds during the coming summer, with the remainder favouring conditions on the warm side of neutral. The models which indicate the possibility of passing El Nino thresholds forecast peak central equatorial Pacific SSTs reaching at most moderate levels.

El Nino Prospects Flatline Say BoM Models

And yes, I am happy. Hoping for multiple polar vortex shots to hit throughout this cold season

[Isleofpalms85]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

^^

They aren't really Australian climate models, but the Aussie Met agency surveyed the most recent data from the models and came up with this assessment. Seems like a very weak El Nino for the winter, with only a possible chance of reaching moderate levels next summer.



El Nino Prospects Flatline Say BoM Models

And yes, I am happy. Hoping for multiple polar vortex shots to hit throughout this cold season

Moderate El Nino next summer? Could mean a very hot summer in 2015 for much of the U.S.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85

Moderate El Nino next summer? Could mean a very hot summer in 2015 for much of the U.S.

I think I read Bastardi calling for that too. I could only hope. Especially after two failed summers in a row.


I don't know if the experts are still looking at 1977 to be an analog year to this winter, but in 1977 we had a weak El Nino throughout the winter and into that summer. Here is how it played out for Chicago.


Coldest January on record, warmest May on record. Summer turned out to be about average overall.

[SoCal Midwest Noobie]

Latest forecast for Nov 11 is snow with a low of 23 eek on Wunderground. But Wunderground being what it is, I take with a grain of salt. NWS has a more conservative 27 with a rain forecast. I guess hell has to freeze over entirely before actual snow falls lol.

[chicagogeorge]

So I guess 76'-77' is still an analog year

[Kamsack]

The beauty of winter this morning in northwestern Minnesota