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The North Pacific has cooled significantly in the last two weeks.
This is my favorite part. If we do have a cold winter in the East with the continued cooling there, its like watching squirrels scramble to survive. Some meteorologist who were so confident a warm pacific means a cold East will find a way to give another reason or excuse.
These guys sound so confident one reason or another is a reason why we could be warm or cold and then it backfires. See it happen ALL the time! Weather is a blend of a TON of things out there. Sun included. We might never have a definitive answer or correlation.
This is my favorite part. If we do have a cold winter in the East with the continued cooling there, its like watching squirrels scramble to survive. Some meteorologist who were so confident a warm pacific means a cold East will find a way to give another reason or excuse.
These guys sound so confident one reason or another is a reason why we could be warm or cold and then it backfires. See it happen ALL the time! Weather is a blend of a TON of things out there. Sun included. We might never have a definitive answer or correlation.
I agree. It is like a large piece of machinery with lots of diff moving parts. Each year seems to be unique and have its own blend of contributing factors. Fascinating though when you think about it. I remember Fall of 1989, and the term they used then was ECOW (Early Cold Onset Winter). Right after Thanksgiving that year it was way below avg and stayed that way all the way to right before New Years Eve. I was a weather junkie then, and I remember all the prognosticators saying in the midst of that December that there was no end in sight to the cold, and due to the early cold onset, it was going to be a brutal winter. Wrong. On New Years Eve it broke, and the rest of the winter was very mild.
Philadelphia PA
Oct 1989 mean temp anomaly +.7F
Nov 1989 -2.7F
Dec 1989 -12F (brutally cold)
Jan 1990 +7.3F
Feb 1990 +5.5F
March 1990 +2.6F
Notice how quickly and dramatically it flipped. I'm sure there were no long range guru's at that time saying something like "oh, btw, Dec will be record breaking cold, and then winter will be over with Jan and Feb being very mild and warm", lol.
The thing is, if you avg the three 1989 winter month means, you come up with an anomaly of +.8F. That tells you nothing about what that winter was really like. Each winter is unique, and when they say it will be well below average, that only tells part of the story.
remember the rather snowless winter of 2011-2012? [for the northern US] Barely shows up as more than a few pixels compared to 2013, Canada stayed snow covered.
...And right at the night following the end of October we currently have a snowpack in South Carolina. One couldn't ask for a more perfect capstone for a month of phenomenal boreal snow advance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85
x x.
\ || we're all gonna die due to the roia(rapid onset ice age) so much for even getting to Texas for the holiday season, plans are ruined.
Texas will be the least of your worries if a pattern of comparable historical magnitude to what we saw today progresses through January - in that event Tampico will be blanketed in white (they have similar January averages to today's averages in South Carolina). You should be safe enough from Old Man Winter if you stay south of the Yucatan, though, and in the unlikely event the snowpack reaches Central America there's always the Southern Hemisphere. In all seriousness I think any snow much south of Texas is very unlikely in the coming winter.
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