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Great...,,,just f% $#ing great news for us, looks pretty grim for the ohio valley and midwest if weatherbells temp anomaly pans out, the worst part is that there will not be the level of snowfall there was last winter, I would take anything less harsh than last year's monster of a winter, well enough of one to make 8th place in terms of cold in indianapolis. But I guess we shall see whose forecast and which model was closest to being right next spring.
Yup. Steve D loves his science aspect of things. This is not something other meteorologists talks about much. His famous line "It's meteorology not Modelology" LOL!!
73 PDF Pages! Does that link work for public or is it just for members? I'm a member but was just wondering.
Have to finish it later but here's a tid bit from it. There's no way to post it all or most.
" This year, the western Atlantic is running 1.7 degrees Celsius above normal. Some areas off the East coast from Florida to the Canadian Maritimes and 300 NM out range from 2 degrees to an impressive 10 degrees Celsius above normal for this time of year. You might be
wondering why this observation is so important.
Remember what I said about the conservation of mass and the associated thermal gradients. What we have off the East coast is a powder keg of energy with warm, moist rising air along and just off the East coast. With rising air, you have a void in mass which means another air mass must fill that mass to achieve a balance.
This means that cold, dense air (you know, like that Polar and Arctic air mass in northwestern Canada) will race south and southeast to achieve a balance in the atmosphere. This leads to the potential for powerful storms along the East coast. When you combine the factors in the western Atlantic with the favorable SSTA environment in the northern Atlantic, we clearly have a very favorable environment for significant East coast storms or cyclogenesis. In short, Nor’easters."
It's free for everyone as I clicked and was able to download the whole thing as a non-member.... He actually has my area (quadrant #2 in Mid-Atlantic Chart) as the "bulls-eye" zone.... we shall see.
Give him credit though... yeah it's 73 pages and that seems "crazy" but every idea he has is accompanied with an explanation as to why he's forecasting how he is.... very well done.
It's free for everyone as I clicked and was able to download the whole thing as a non-member.... He actually has my area (quadrant #2 in Mid-Atlantic Chart) as the "bulls-eye" zone.... we shall see.
Give him credit though... yeah it's 73 pages and that seems "crazy" but every idea he has is accompanied with an explanation as to why he's forecasting how he is.... very well done.
It's like free school. Everyone in this forum should be reading it. I wont understand those who don't. Print it out and read it over Hot Coco or Pina Colada or something.
Meteo in NYC Nick Gregory says this..
"U hit on many points I'm in agreement with for this winter. NOAA forecast off the mark IMHO"
Interesting. Andrew loves the Lezak Recurring Cycle and the Typhoon Rule concept. A huge high pressure system is showing up on models over Japan in early November. You know what that means. A big old period of warm settled weather for the eastern US around Nov 10th to 15th.
Another thing I noticed about his graphics showing the plains with all that snow was the heavy precip anomalies in the NE Pacific. You know what that means? No big high pressure system there. Instead a big circulating low dumping rains and stirring up that water. I think that would kill that warm water anomaly in the NE Pacific.
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just f% $#ing great news for us, looks pretty grim for the ohio valley and midwest if weatherbells temp anomaly pans out, the worst part is that there will not be the level of snowfall there was last winter, I would take anything less harsh than last year's monster of a winter, well enough of one to make 8th place in terms of cold in indianapolis. But I guess we shall see whose forecast and which model was closest to being right next spring. 
Does that link work for public or is it just for members? I'm a member but was just wondering. 
