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Well, here is a reality check on them for last winter. In a word, they weren't very good at predicting last winter at this same time, at least for the SE and my area. They were way off on the snow(we got well above normal), and we didn't get any ice. Our temp anomalies were +1F in Dec, -5F in Jan, and -4F in February. I wouldn't call that "near normal". And places like Columbus, GA and Mobile, AL were well below average.
Our local site published a new forecast for the next 5 months saying that all will be above average (based on several models of course). Always the same story every year
That 33% wetter than normal chances and the 33% cooler than normal is basically where Accuweather has the ice threat.
I personally think we have to watch for those nasty ice events this year from Arkansas to Kentucky/Tennessee including Northern Gulf states.
Just because it's starting to look stormy looking ahead, add cold air coming in, but warm gulf air over top and it would mean trouble spots.
I'm below average and you are above lol.
I have to think that out of all of them, NOAA has to have the worst track record. I usually take the opposite of what they predict lol. It worked last year.
NOAA is absolutely the worst at seasonal forecasts....
Even though I don't like cold winters, I have to admit that it seems very strange that every single NOAA winter forecast is always calling for above average temps just about all over the whole country. Well that certainly isn't the case if you look at the last several years. So what gives? Are our models that crappy compared to the rest of the world. I can't figure out why we still have the worst model out there. It is so pitiful. They should spend whatever it costs to get the absolute best model money can buy. They certainly spend loads of our money on defense. Weather is just as important to our economy.
I remember when Joe the start he talked about GFS model bias towards warmth... don't remember exactly how he described it but he said there's a built-in bias. Hopefully with the new upgrade that they are scheduled to get the bias will disappear. However that doesn't mean there isn't a warm bias among the forecasters at NOAA
That 33% wetter than normal chances and the 33% cooler than normal is basically where Accuweather has the ice threat.
I personally think we have to watch for those nasty ice events this year from Arkansas to Kentucky/Tennessee including Northern Gulf states.
Just because it's starting to look stormy looking ahead, add cold air coming in, but warm gulf air over top and it would mean trouble spots.
Good thing these are notoriously inaccurate, as it's showing drought and heat in Michigan - not what I wanna see when I go there this winter.
I'll go with Accuweather / Weather Channel's forecasts - normal snow and colder for up there, wetter and cooler for down there.
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