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Old 01-01-2015, 08:44 PM
 
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Not liking this possibility



https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman


Well maybe the teleconnections aren't going to be quite dominant. I HOPE




At least one day next week with the possibility of temps staying below 0F/18F for a good chunk of the metro area







Last edited by chicagogeorge; 01-01-2015 at 09:50 PM..
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Old 01-01-2015, 10:17 PM
 
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Old 01-01-2015, 10:42 PM
 
Location: Lexington, KY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Not liking this possibility



https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman
Phase 6 is centered right over Ky, perfect
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Old 01-02-2015, 04:46 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Coastal CT left. Inland CT right.

The Euro says even the coast might not get past freezing until Jan 13th. Don't believe that but either way, after this weekend the bottom drops.

Ponds, Lakes and rivers will finally start to freeze up.

Alberta Clipper on Tuesday.



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Old 01-02-2015, 06:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Well, it's been a while since I was able to do this... Even though it's nothing...

Current Snow Total forecast through Sunday from 6 Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO's). Nice to see they all have the same color Legend now!

NWS Albany bearish on any snow accumulations.. They're thinking sleet/ice will hold down/prevent any snow accumulations with a fast changeover.

Northern New England with a good snowfall once again but even they will change to rain I think.



NWS Albany Discussion

SNOW MAY BE BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOWFALL...AND HENCE GREATEST AMTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...2-4 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE
CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION.

SNOWFALL FORECAST IS A TRICKY ONE FOR MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
DISTRICT...BERKSHIRES AND POINTS SOUTH INCLUDING THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. WARM AIR MAY
COME IN ALOFT AND QUICKLY CHANGE THE SNOW TO SLEET CUTTING DOWN
AMOUNTS.

AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF SNOW...A CHANGEOVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MIX IS FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS BY LATER SAT EVENING. WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD
1-1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ON SUNDAY. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
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Old 01-02-2015, 07:04 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Don't forget you can use this to see when and what precip is coming.

On the left. Choose the State you want.
Scroll down a little choose the station available.
Then choose GFS or NAM and see the differences.

NCEP Model Time-Series (BUFR) Forecast Hourly Weather Data

Here's what latest NAM shows for northern CT.

Starts as snow (couple hours worth) changes to sleet for couple hours. Changes to Freezing rain then to rain.

00z Jan 4 = 7pm Jan 3rd (Saturday). Almost 1/4" of Sleet. Not much rain accumulation. Strange.

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Old 01-02-2015, 07:19 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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That's what Im talking about DROP & PUSH! Without any Greenland Blocking it's in and out doing the looped de doop dance.

You see how on the right image the jet stream is going vertically North? That would need to push westward over Greenland for us to have consistent arctic air in Northeast. Right now its too easy for the flow to come and go.

Need a ridge and strong High Pressure to form in North Atlantic!

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Old 01-02-2015, 07:36 AM
 
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So is a Greenland Blocking high forming?







https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/s...11273878806528
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Old 01-02-2015, 08:02 AM
 
Location: 30461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
So is a Greenland Blocking high forming?
I would hope. That would be beneficial in giving us in the southeast an actual prolonged winter like in 2010.

Wunderground is now showing highs in the 30s in my 10-Day forecast next Thursday, but has it quickly warming back into the 60s the following Sunday, so I'd betting this shot will be a one time ordeal.
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Old 01-02-2015, 08:41 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,516 posts, read 75,294,816 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
So is a Greenland Blocking high forming?
Nope, maybe end of month. NAO going positive, no blocking. Cold and storms In & Out.

Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: North Atlantic Oscillation

For those not sure, look at the 3rd chart on this image. That is showing the 10 day forecast verifications. Black line is the actual. So looks like in December the NAO was higher than forecasts.



Keep in mind, there are other things that can keep a region with continued below normal temps. ie: Clouds, Upper Low, Slow moving Vortex in southern Canada, ect
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