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Only a couple of days left of reports, and this February might make the top 5 in the mildest Februaries ever. The ground is bare at peak time of the average snow depth, which only have happened 6 times during the last 100 years. The average 24h mean temp is 0.4C / 33F, the record high has been only 5.5C / 42F, but as the temps have been incredibly steady the whole month, the precipitation has been mostly sleet turning to rain. The record low this month will be -8.1C / 17.5F, and the average low for February is 17F!
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN IMPACTING WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PROBABLE 24 HOUR
CONCENTRATION CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DAY.
CONFIDENCE ABOUT PTYPE REMAINS LOW,
AS FOR THE PARTICULARS, WE GET THE IMPRESSION THAT ON FRIDAY MANY PEOPLE METAPHORICALLY WILL BE TELLING METEOROLOGICAL WINTER TO NOT HAVE THE DOOR HIT IT ON THE WAY OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO AVERAGE AN ASTONISHING 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN AVERAGE, COMPARABLE TO THE DEPARTURES WE SAW ON JANUARY 7TH.
IF THERE IS ANY SAVING GRACE, SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL, THE "NORMALS" ARE HIGHER AND WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS
TOO LOW BASED ON AFTN FCST 925MB TEMPS. THE ONE WAY THEY MIGHT
WORK IS IF WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AS THE AIR MASS IS WARMING ITS WAY
DOWNWARD.
1. This isn't a coastal storm coming up the coast spinning SouthEast or East winds so I don't have to worry about that factor.
2. Waters off the coast are cold so its not like it would significantly warm things up
NWS Boston words:
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES CONVERGE /PERHAPS PHASING/ AND
STRETCH THROUGH THE CONFLUENT AND PROGRESSIVE NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN-PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY POLAR VORTEX. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS INVOKED ALONG THE COLD FRONT NOW
STALLED SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE IN REGIONS OF BETTER
BAROCLINICITY RESULTING IN THE LIKELY SETUP OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.
AN OVER-RUNNING EVENT WITH A FRONT-END THUMP CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
CONSIDERING THE TIGHTER CLUSTERING AND SIMILAR STRENGTH OF 27.0Z
GUIDANCE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF STRONG E/NE WINDS OFF THE COLDER WATERS OF THE GULF OF MAINE COMBINED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC/ISALLOBARIC UNDERCUTTING DRAINAGE FLOW SOUTHWARD WILL YIELD A VERY TIGHT NORTH- TO-SOUTH GRADIENT OF SNOW-WINTRY MIX-RAIN. NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT
THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND H8-6 CONVERGENCE/F-GEN
FORCING OF THE WCB BENEATH STRONG REGIONS OF DIVERGENCE /RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET/ WILL YIELD DEEP-LAYER ASCENT THRU BETTER DENDRITIC SNOW-GROWTH REGIONS GENERATING ROUGHLY WEST-TO-EAST MESOSCALE SNOW- BANDING WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE
TO ALSO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL FRONT
AS WELL AS THE LONG-FETCH OF THE EASTERLY JET...WHETHER WE WILL
SEE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE /PERHAPS AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
WELL/.
SLIGHT WOBBLES IN BOTH LOW AND FRONTAL POSITIONS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTH-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO EXIST. THERE ARE ALSO PERHAPS ISSUES BETWEEN THE INTERACTION/PHASING OF NORTHERN- AND SOUTHERN-STREAM IMPULSES.
AS A FINAL NOTE...CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE BASED ON THE 27.0Z GFS HAS
THE MEAN SNOWFALL BASED ON THE TOP ANALOGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-TIER
OF NEW ENGLAND STRETCHING BACK INTO PA WITH A GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CONFIDENCE-LEVEL OF SEEING 6 OR MORE INCHES. THIS ADDS TO THE OVERALL FORECAST-CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER-STORM IMPACT.
Only a couple of days left of reports, and this February might make the top 5 in the mildest Februaries ever. The ground is bare at peak time of the average snow depth, which only have happened 6 times during the last 100 years. The average 24h mean temp is 0.4C / 33F, the record high has been only 5.5C / 42F, but as the temps have been incredibly steady the whole month, the precipitation has been mostly sleet turning to rain. The record low this month will be -8.1C / 17.5F, and the average low for February is 17F!
We know as we have been hearing on this forum how mild you guys are all winter. I'm very jealous. This has been one of the coldest in years over here.
Funny thing is when you go onto meteo websites with a right wing conservative outlook like WeatherBell, all they talk about is how cold the US is with rarely a mention about Alaska, the western third of the US, Europe or China. China has had the warmest Feb on record I believe. Nary a word mentioned about that by the cold lovers like Joe Bastardi. That man is so biased it is laughable.
This is from AccuWeather about this cold winter. They are obviously not as biased as Joe Bastardi as they fired him for his wacko antics.
Bulges in the jet stream have created well-above average warmth not only in western North America, but also in much of China, Greenland and to some extent western and southern Europe. According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), January was the second warmest on record in China and the third warmest in Alaska. Records have been kept since 1961 and 1918, respectively. "Both December 2013 and January 2014 ranked in the top five warmest globally, while 2013 tied for fourth warmest year on record," Anderson said. Global surface temperature records date back to 1880. "Nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred during the 21st century and only one year, 1998, was warmer than 2013," Anderson said. January Arctic sea ice extent was below the 30-year average compiled from 1981 to 2010. In contrast, January Antarctic sea ice extent was the second largest for the 30-year average compiled from 1981 to 2010. So far this winter, the extent of Great Lakes ice is the third largest since records began in the late 1970s.
Now.. stare at the image and pretend you're under that band. Notice that the heavier falling snow is not going to be every single square foot of the area, you can even see where the heavier stuff is falling I think. Point is.. one neighborhood can get heavy snow, while another light snow.
It's currently 10 F (-12 C), snowfall is 312" (792 cm), current snow depth is 104" (264 cm). The forecast is for a storm to move in tonight, bringing gusty winds and 20-30" (50-76 cm) of snow by Saturday.
Here is the current 500mb Heights around the globe. (flow pattern at upper levels)
You got the Pacific jet streaming moisture right in.
You have the pumped up Ridge over Alaska and what that's doing is sending the trough down into the East
You have a piece of the Polar vortex that broke off from the Pole and spinning around over the Hudson Bay
The most key aspect is the Atlantic Ridge. The air mass cannot go East so it exits Northeast.
IF the ridge was where my dotted lines are up towards Greenland... this air mass would get stuck over us more.
Either way, it's impressive and cold for this time of year in the East
but now you can see how the flow is around the globe. I love looking at the 500mb heights.
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