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At O'Hare the average from 1959-2013 is 18 days in March over 5C. The lowest was 4 days in 1960 and 1965. I would think it would be record shattering if not one day in March exceeded 5C. Midway Airport has data back to 1928, and 1960 and 1965 are still the lowest number of days. Highly unlikely Chicago will have zero days with a high above 41F, but it may be less than 4.
You and Infamous are correct, having no 40 degree + days in March would be record breaking, and unlikely, but the Brazilian metro grams point out just how cold we will be this March.
According to the Euro
Quote:
Long range update through March.
This is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF and CFSv2 long range forecast models...
Confidence is higher than normal for temperatures with pretty good agreement between the models. However, confidence is lower than normal for precipitation as there is greater disagreement.
Maybe the last week of March we will begin to see a pattern change to spring? I'm also noticing dry conditions for March in the Midwest. I wonder if that pattern will persist into April? If it does, that might have implications during the warm season.
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 02-24-2014 at 09:32 PM..
One thing we have noticed at NWS Grand Forks is that GFS model surface temps and MOS guidance such as MAV and MEX have been horribly too cold all winter. Pretty much useless.....
This is the 18z MAV MOS temp high/low for GFK issued 2/24...
In reality NWS forecast is for the following
-10.........0...........-9............11..........-19
Way too big of a spread. I wonder if some updating is needed with them.
On a similar note, Euro kept showing single digits for Danbury DXR this morning past 7 days while GFS kept showing upper teens & 20s. 6am OBS Danbury is 17F. Euro has been horrid this winter. Even with tomorrows storm it kept showing while GFS showed nothing.
Ever since the GFS upgrade it has been kicking EURO's a__ss.
Graph I made showing Extreme Max/Min Records, Normal Max/Min, & Actual Max/Min since Dec 1st for BDR
I see a record max temp in January right after some record low temps. Looks like we've been more closer to the extreme lows then highs. -7°F is the all time record low(pitiful). 103° is the all time record highest temp. That 84°F in March is scary. lol (3/13/90)
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
nice graph. I'd be curious to see it Bradley Airport or even more so Chicopee. I could download the data, but you got a nice graph format there.
Look at the difference!! Gees. Also keep in mind records go back to 1905 as opposed to 1948. But the extreme cold is much more to my liking. Below 0F all of January, February and few times in March.
I left background white looks easier to view. This is northern CT near MA border for those that aren't familiar.
Actual high temps (thin red line with dots) during January thaw period breaking 1 daily record and well above the normal.
For Grand Forks North Dakota....with records back to the 1880s.... 2013-14 meteorological winter (Dec 1 to Feb 28) will likely go down with 70 days out of 90 total seeing below zero (F) temperatures. This would be tied for fourth all time. Most since the winter of 78-79.
We are also approaching the most sub zero days on record. Tonight would make #24 officially for Chicago. The record is 25. We are going down to -2F near the lake, and -11F in the western Fox Valley suburbs
Long way off but check out the GFS accumulated snowfall forecast through Tuesday. Most coming Sunday into Monday.
Models are all over the place
You think North America has been cold this February? Check out Asia
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 02-25-2014 at 05:10 AM..
Posted Feb 22nd but every update for past 5 days has shown similar results for Tuesday 7am.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Amazing differences with GFS and EURO.
First... Looking at the actual data from them, check out Tuesday morning. Euro says Danbury 7° GFS says 20°.
GFS pretty much has it dry for next 1.5 weeks aside from couple snow showers.
.
Here we are 7am Tuesday. Actual temp....[drum roll please].... 18°! What is wrong with the EURO lately??? HORRIBLE!!! Even with tomorrows so called "storm" it had while GFS had nothing.
Even the very latest EURO update last night shows 7am at 11.8°. So not even right within 12hrs? WTF
For Grand Forks North Dakota....with records back to the 1880s.... 2013-14 meteorological winter (Dec 1 to Feb 28) will likely go down with 70 days out of 90 total seeing below zero (F) temperatures. This would be tied for fourth all time. Most since the winter of 78-79.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
We are also approaching the most sub zero days on record. Tonight would make #24 officially for Chicago. The record is 25.
Brrrrrr 7F this morning, no end in sight. Great posts all. ChiGeorge, those are some scary wind chills. LOL Cambium on the errors in reporting from the 'sources'.
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