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Old 02-21-2014, 05:43 PM
 
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ECMWF 12z ensemble mean 850mb Temperature +7 days has -20°C anomalies, absolutely incredible







Jesus H. Christ!

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Old 02-21-2014, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Northville, MI
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
ECMWF 12z ensemble mean 850mb Temperature +7 days has -20°C anomalies, absolutely incredible







Jesus H. Christ!
George, I am not ready for this blast again. Winter should ease once March arrives, right. Looks like that is not happening.
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Old 02-21-2014, 07:35 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Bingo. Fun when you're onto their game, just wish others wake up.

"Selected" significance. Sure.. lets select these only. Wow!!! What a shame.

Just posted by NOAA.
If you're referring to the US blurb not mentioning the cold, the US average for January was almost exactly average, but it was the 5th driest on record.
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Old 02-21-2014, 08:32 PM
 
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Originally Posted by nei View Post
If you're referring to the US blurb not mentioning the cold, the US average for January was almost exactly average, but it was the 5th driest on record.
CONUS in January was about 1C below 1981-2010 average



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Old 02-21-2014, 08:37 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
CONUS in January was about 1C below 1981-2010 average
Hmm, the NOAA compares among the last 120 years rather the 1981-2010 baseline.

The average temperature for the contiguous United States during January was 30.3°F, or 0.1°F below the 20th century average. The January 2014 temperature ranked near the middle of the 120-year period of record, and was the coldest January since 2011.


National Overview - January 2014 | State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
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Old 02-21-2014, 08:43 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Hmm, the NOAA compares among the last 120 years rather the 1981-2010 baseline.

The average temperature for the contiguous United States during January was 30.3°F, or 0.1°F below the 20th century average. The January 2014 temperature ranked near the middle of the 120-year period of record, and was the coldest January since 2011.


National Overview - January 2014 | State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)


They don't for global temps. They used the 1981-2010 baseline here.




http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/servic...ntp/201401.gif



They need to make up their mind. Are they using the POR for baseline or the current 30 year reference period.
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Old 02-21-2014, 09:02 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post

They need to make up their mind. Are they using the POR for baseline or the current 30 year reference period.
I think they use the period of record for national maps so they can do the ranking maps.
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Old 02-21-2014, 09:05 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,756,014 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
ECMWF 12z ensemble mean 850mb Temperature +7 days has -20°C anomalies, absolutely incredible

Jesus H. Christ!
When it will it end?! Weirdly, I've gotten used to the cold (though not the worst we got), but I'm going to get frustrated if we don't get some warm days soon. Where's Patricius Maximus these days? This must be his winter dream come true.
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Old 02-21-2014, 09:08 PM
 
Location: Northville, MI
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Low of 6 F and overcast mid week. This winter is turning out to be a pathetic joke . I have had enough cold for 1 season. Teens in March are unacceptable and overboard for winter.
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Old 02-21-2014, 09:27 PM
 
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Originally Posted by nei View Post
I think they use the period of record for national maps so they can do the ranking maps.


That ranking is skewed for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the number of stations around today that were not around 120 years ago, and second, you will never get me to believe that they adequately adjust for UHI not to mention instrument calibration errors.... This is why that satellite measurements are the most accurate imho.


Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
When it will it end?! Weirdly, I've gotten used to the cold (though not the worst we got), but I'm going to get frustrated if we don't get some warm days soon. Where's Patricius Maximus these days? This must be his winter dream come true.

I'm about full for my winter taste buds. This has been an awesome winter.... But if this below average trend goes too far into March or beyond (which I now think it will) you will begin to hear me ***** and moan about the cold as well.

And don't even go there if my summer turns out to be cooler than normal.

My one saving grace in the analogs is that even though this February is now tied for the coolest on record for Chicago with 1979, February 1936 was the second coldest on record, and we all know how that summer turned out.
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