Winter 2013-14 Thread — Northern Hemisphere (climate, warm, record, temperature)

[Infamous92]

It was super foggy just minutes ago, and then it got darker, and then there was lightning (still foggy btw), and then a tropical-style downpour with hail mixed in, which killed the fog instantly. I can't say I've seen that before.

[Cambium]

After this weekend we get cold and snowy again. Tracking some systems moving across here's some tid bits from NWS Discussions. The red bolded is probably the most important part for the mid week bigger threat. The energy is so far away that data is not pulled from those areas to go into the models.


NWS Boston

AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM THIS FAR OUT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE CAMP LEAD BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS WOULD DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG A COLD FRONT BUT NOT UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOWFALL TO MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MID WEEK STORM JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ARCTIC...A VERY DATA SPARSE AREA. THUS MODELS WILL NOT CAPTURE THE TRUE AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY WHEN IT TRACKS INTO A MORE DATA RICH AREA OVER SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME DEGREE OF EAST COAST STORMINESS WITH A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH INCLUDES AN ANOMALOUS WESTERN US/CANADA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO AK.

NWS Mt Holly

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IN THIS TIMEFRAME. RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A UPTICK WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH A FRESH SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL SNOW FROM THIS. THE RECENT UPTICK IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH IT TO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS GIVEN RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN THE MODELS. THOUGH IF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE TO OCCUR BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER THAN 10:1 RATIOS, PERHAPS 12-15:1 AT TIMES


NWS Upton

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM DURING MID WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING AND STRENGTH.

[chicagogeorge]

^^

Been reading about that too!


Going to be 25 degrees below normal for the end of February.





Frigid for this late in the season. -21C on Wednesday night I'm sure the western suburbs will dip down to at least -25C




This might lock us into the #2 coldest February months on record here


Official Mean record coldest for the city of Chicago

#1. 14.6F/-9.7C
#2. 15.3F/-9.3C

[CCc girl]

41F, rain changed briefly to snow, big, heavy flakes. We did have a heavy downpour at about two and had a thunderclap.

[Adi from the Brunswicks]

Oh my, heavy thunderstorms followed by flooding here. However, warm air from the "rainforests" of south jersey did not make it here.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

^^



Frigid for this late in the season. -21C on Wednesday night I'm sure the western suburbs will dip down to at least -25C

We'll have to pull some extreme cold temps for Feb or March. I'll grab a few from this area this weekend.

Snowfall totals last 24hrs. A fresh 4-15" snowfall swath from Iowa, Wisconsin, & Minnesota
Nice 10-15" snowfall there around Duluth.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/snow/index.php?site=pub

[chicagogeorge]

Yeah heavy snow up north....


Man look at this cold spell. I tell you this will be the norm at least through March if not for the entire spring.







Interesting that the models also show colder than normal temps for a big chunk of Europe

[Cambium]

Thursday morning temps across U.S from GFS18z.

[snj90]

So much snow in the forecast next week it's hard to keep track of what's coming when, and whatnot. Hope we get a nice big snowstorm. Wednesday and Thursday night forecasts calling for lows around 10F (-12C).

[CCc girl]

Yeah, back to the deep freeze after Sunday, from 44 F tomorow to a high of 17F by Thursday,