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Totally apologize, I thought that post of his was for the 16th which would be completely off. Good man JB. He has the idea for the 19th time frame. Just has to see if it works out. That's the one to watch for a big storm, not mid week. Keep the posts coming, nice work.
Very easy for someone to call BS, but very hard for someone to understand the possibility of something. 16th had no possibility that's why I jumped the gun on that.
why does the 19th look much more like a monster storm? Stronger pressure gradient? The low on the 16th looks closer to land on the 16th.
Current 850mb temps in Europe. Looks like a broad trough over there but not even the freezing line is that far south. Looks like it's averaging about 41°N with the lowest point at 35N west of Portugal
why does the 19th look much more like a monster storm? Stronger pressure gradient? The low on the 16th looks closer to land on the 16th.
First.. to clarify before others print and frame your post (lol)... NOBODY said it "looks like a monster storm". What I said was the possibility of that is better on the 19th than the 16th. HUGE difference in words. One is guaranteeing it, the other is pointing out a possibility.
Second... to be honest... I personally don't see it happening. I don't see a big storm for another 1 week+. Which actually puts us around the 19th but nothing is showing it, why is it even being discussed?? When 1 model shows it, I'll bite. Don't buy the hype on that "big" storm!
Let me grab some images..hang on..
Edit... you know what... the images are so ridiculous I wont even waste my time on it. Nothing is supporting it. When a big storm is being shown, I'll mention it and post images.
WPC Discussion: They say some "individual" members show a storm but they are Waiting for agreement with other models otherwise not buying the well defined storm.
Remember that individual members of the ensembles make up a mean solution. Just because 1 member shows it, doesn't mean that's the average solution..
SOME INDIVIDUAL 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A DEFINED SFC LOW BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR RESPECTIVE MEANS TO HAVE A MEANINGFUL FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUITY OF NO WELL DEFINED DAY 7 SYSTEM WHILE AWAITING BETTER AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
71/60 one day, next few days similar. Weirdly, the forecast is for 3000 ft. Sea level is cooler with a higher diurnal range, mainly by cooler nights (69/51)
Section of the avalanche event map. There are 38 documented slides in this small area, and this is only for yesterday and today. You can see the highway at the bottom and why it's such a concern when the avi danger is high. Where that cluster of marks is, the highway is at about 8400' elevation. The upper right corner is Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, so several of those are the result of ski patrol hazard reduction work.
Was watching the weather channel online, and they suggest that the majority of the next 8-14 days will be above average with a more zonal flow as we move towards the end of the month. What??
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