Ok.. so continuing with the cold/stormy period we're in, looking ahead past mid February now.
Here's the
current Water Vapor view. You can already see the setup getting in place with a split flow in the Pacific. This is going to mean some needed rains into California with a tropical stream like that.
I believe the ridge stays in place over there which means the flow at 500mb is going to be Northwesterly (arctic air) right into the U.S. So yes, Status Quo.
I don't see Pacific Air bleeding into the U.S because of the trough West of the Rockies. However, a streaming moisture feed is going to enhance rain/snowfall across the U.S
I believe the south will have one more chance of frozen precip before February is up. Also note, the Atlantic ridge is closer to the coast now, that could spell trouble for coastal storms riding right up but I don't see big threats
The northern Jet stream which has been mostly seen in the gulf states lately will start to lift. That fluctuation will mean the world in what precip falls in the mid atlantic. I think storm tracks will move from like Oklahoma to Virginia.
Bottom line... February is going to be stormy with snow, ice, and rain. I think we have 1 more real arctic attack coming into the East mid February but temps will stay below normal mostly. I'm looking at seasonably/cool temps for March, no torch pattern yet. (might be May)
I mean all in all a pattern typically doesn't last more than 12 weeks in my experience.. Over the past year or so that that theory got washed out because patterns were changing every 2 to 7 weeks and it was just all over the place.
But back to my original experience.... short pattern changes are 4 weeks, a long pattern takes 12 weeks. So on average you looking at a pattern that last 8 weeks.
We are on the 6th week now because if you start the cold snowy pattern say mid December, add 8 weeks to that, and that puts you to mid February so that's when the pattern will start to change in my opinion and we'll see the change at the end of February.
however if it goes toward the longest stretch which is 12 weeks that put you into mid March where it could be cold and stormy. I'm not going that far, however I am going to the end of February...
We really pretty much only have one more month of this and then spring time rolls around, averages go up, Sun is higher in the sky, but it could still be cold 30's in March.
And just like patterns, my streak has to end soon too. LOL. Lets see what happens.
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Long Range Thoughts Part4
