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On the plus side, it appears we still have 15 years left of Moore's Law according to the chief technology officer of Broadcom Corp.
Broadcom: Time to prepare for the end of Moore
“We still have another 15 years or so to enjoy, but we need to prepare at some point for a network that doesn’t double in bandwidth every two years,” he added.
I agree the problem is more complex but the computers to solve the problem are more advanced as well. All in all we are in the same boat we were in 1953. One paradigm was about to end so in order to keep computers advancing exponentially they needed to move to the next paradigm. I suspect that they had their skeptics as well. If anything we seem be ahead of the curve because I found nothing that talks about integrated circuit in 1950 only 1957. I have heard Ray talk about it and he thinks they will be ready by the second half of this decade and if they are doing this much now I think he could be right again.[
Key word here being "thinks", I'm beginning to see where the other member is coming from we really need more tangible research then mere speculation.
On the plus side, it appears we still have 15 years left of Moore's Law according to the chief technology officer of Broadcom Corp.
Broadcom: Time to prepare for the end of Moore
“We still have another 15 years or so to enjoy, but we need to prepare at some point for a network that doesn’t double in bandwidth every two years,” he added.
That is 2028. I don't see a problem with that deadline at all. Especially since they had a major breakthrough in 2010, a full 18 years before.
Key word here being "thinks", I'm beginning to see where the other member is coming from we really need more tangible research then mere speculation.
There is a lot if research on it. The singularity is near is full of data. In terms of 3D self organizing mocular structures. At this point not much will be published simply because they are not at the stage they want it out. The fact we can find what we can is more a testamite of the Internet. Ask anyone in 1953 what the intragrated circuit was and I bet only a select few had any knowledge.
The singularity is when computers merge with humans. Or perhaps I'm not fully understanding what you are saying? Are you saying we will merge with computers but not to the point we consider it the singularity? If that is it then what will cause humans from merging with computers past that point?
Last edited by Josseppie; 06-24-2013 at 06:50 PM..
I happen to be in camp B. I couldn't find any info on the 3D self molecular replicating structures as it pertaining to computers. I found some scientific articles but they seem to talk about medical and biological aspects of it not computing.
Am I simply not typing in the correct key terms on google search?
I remember a few threads back another city data member had heard of it and posted the following:
Crystalblue cause last i heard, 3d is still to hot, and they have not overcome that yet.
and even if/when they do, how many can they stack up? too many wont work for laptops/tablets (and I am not ready yet to put all my stuff in the could).
Quantum has its own issues, I dont think it is supposed to go in the direction of AI.
He mentioned Quantum computing there as well because I had mentioned that we were getting close to achieving quantum computing.
Question: if we do make a smooth transition to the next paradigm would you then agree that the singularity will occur between 2030-2045?
Question: if we do make a smooth transition to the next paradigm would you then agree that the singularity will occur between 2030-2045?
That would depend on the success of the blue brain project and how much we learn from it. As I said before we mapped the genome 16 years ago and we've had no breakthrough in genetic engineering.
That would depend on the success of the blue brain project and how much we learn from it. As I said before we mapped the genome 16 years ago and we've had no breakthrough in genetic engineering.
There have been a lot of breakthroughs in genetic research. One that comes to mind is research on cancer and the aids virus. The current medicines are a direct result of our ability to map the virus and cancer cells and devlop medication. In the case of HIV they actually go and rewrite the DNA so the virus can not attack the cells. The class of drugs I am referring to are:
Nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors, Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, Protease inhibitors, Integrase inhibitors, and fusion inhibitor. These drugs are the cutting edge medicine and would not have been possible in the 1980's.
Those are only 2 examples of a long list.
However, for the singularity, all we need is computers so small that we can merge with them. That should be well under way before 2028 and Mores law ends.
Last edited by Josseppie; 06-25-2013 at 10:39 PM..
Five years ago, we were nearly out of oil. Now, according to a geologist I had lunch with today, technology has allowed us to reach new oil fields. That is why the economy didn't sour as bad where I live. He said that we have enough oil in our immediate area to keep producing for a few hundred years.
If we really worked hard at new energy sources, do you think this new abundance of oil could hold us over?
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