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You bring up a good point about a 1,000 Einstein's working together. That could actually be conservative though. Imagine a million or more Einstein's or Data's (the character from Star Trek) all working on scientific projects. That is one reason I am 100% convinced the kind of changes we will see in the next 30 years will be nothing short of amazing.
You bring up a good point about a 1,000 Einstein's working together. That could actually be conservative though. Imagine a million or more Einstein's or Data's (the character from Star Trek) all working on scientific projects. That is one reason I am 100% convinced the kind of changes we will see in the next 30 years will be nothing short of amazing.
ASSUMING we dont kill ourselves first.
One of the points of the book is that given the vastness of the universe, its almost impossible we are the lone intelligence.
So, where are the others, and why havent we seen them (or signs of them)?
The argument is many civiloizations destroy themselves before they spread to the stars, and if we are getting really close, then we may be only a few decades from annhilation.
One of the points of the book is that given the vastness of the universe, its almost impossible we are the lone intelligence.
So, where are the others, and why havent we seen them (or signs of them)?
The argument is many civiloizations destroy themselves before they spread to the stars, and if we are getting really close, then we may be only a few decades from annhilation.
Utopia or extenction.
Theres a coin toss I would hate to make.
There could be many reasons why we don't see them. Maybe they have a "prime directive" as not to interfere in pre warp societies. Perhaps we are like ants and at this point incapable of detecting them. I mean if we can advance this fast in 100 years how advanced will we be in a 1,000 or a million years? The bottom line is we just don't know and while we tend to assume the worse case scenero the most likely answer is more then likely a boring one.
I listened to a pod cast with James Miller, the author of the Singularity Rising, it was interesting and is more evidence that as time goes on the singularity is becoming more mainstream.
One of the points of the book is that given the vastness of the universe, its almost impossible we are the lone intelligence.
So, where are the others, and why havent we seen them (or signs of them)?
The argument is many civiloizations destroy themselves before they spread to the stars, and if we are getting really close, then we may be only a few decades from annhilation.
Utopia or extenction.
Theres a coin toss I would hate to make.
That is only one theory, another is that other civilizations have either moved beyond radio technology or they haven't developed it.
Civilizations broadcast detectable radio signals only for a brief period of time [edit]
It may be that alien civilizations are detectable through their radio emissions for only a short time, reducing the likelihood of spotting them. There are two possibilities in this regard: civilizations outgrow radio through technological advance or, conversely, resource depletion cuts short the time in which a species broadcasts.
The first idea, that civilizations advance beyond radio, is based in part on the "fiber optic objection": the use of high power radio with low-to-medium gain (i.e., non-directional) antennas for long-distance transmission is wasteful of spectrum, yet this "waste" is precisely what makes these systems conspicuous at interstellar distances. Humans are moving to directional or guided transmission channels such as electrical cables, optical fibers, narrow-beam microwave and lasers, and conventional radio with non-directional antennas is increasingly reserved for low-power, short-range applications such as cell phones and Wi-Fi networks. These signals are far less detectable from space. Analog television, developed in the mid-20th century, contains strong carriers to aid reception and demodulation. Carriers are spectral lines that are very easily detected yet do not convey any information beyond their highly artificial nature. Nearly every SETI project is looking for carriers for just this reason, and UHF TV carriers are the most conspicuous and artificial signals from Earth that could be detected at interstellar distances. But advances in technology are replacing analog TV with digital television which uses spectrum more efficiently by eliminating or reducing components such as carriers that make them so conspicuous. Using our own experience as an example, we could set the date of radio-visibility for Earth as December 12, 1901, when Guglielmo Marconi sent radio signals from Cornwall, England, to Newfoundland, Canada.[77] Visibility is now ending, or at least becoming orders of magnitude more difficult, as analog TV is being phased out. And so, if our experience is typical, a civilization remains radio-visible for approximately a hundred years. So a civilization may have been very visible from 1325 to 1483, but we were just not listening at that time. This is essentially the solution, "Everyone is listening, no one is sending."
There could be many reasons why we don't see them. Maybe they have a "prime directive" as not to interfere in pre warp societies. Perhaps we are like ants and at this point incapable of detecting them. I mean if we can advance this fast in 100 years how advanced will we be in a 1,000 or a million years? The bottom line is we just don't know and while we tend to assume the worse case scenero the most likely answer is more then likely a boring one.
I listened to a pod cast with James Miller, the author of the Singularity Rising, it was interesting and is more evidence that as time goes on the singularity is becoming more mainstream.
What aspect of it is becoming more mainstream? I'm not quite sure people would run at the idea of becoming half machine, unless they're are missing a limb, but going as far as replacing your whole brain with a computer would be a stretch.
If it does happen I hope they don't destroy the humans who are opposed to that idea. The novel Hyperion goes a bit into this (first sci-fi novel I read that mentions the singularity), fortunately in the novel the humans who embrace the AIs don't destroy those who oppose it. The human faction that dominates the galaxy is called the Hegemony of Man who is counselled by a faction of the Technocore (race of AI intelligences) who predict the future for them, created farcasting technology (instant interstellar teleportation), brain implants that allow humans to log into the datasphere a sort of galactic internet. Although, the Technocore does not give humanity everything, there is no immortality (life spans for the rich are between 200-250 years) since the Technocore seceded from humanity early on and only gives humans the advice and technology that suits them. The Technocore also split into three factions, one wants to annihilate humanity, the second is only concerned with creating the ultimate intelligence and the third wants to leave humanity as it is.
I never considered that last portion though, at the possibility that AIs could form different factions which could possibly work to our benefit. If something like that occurs perhaps the fears of AIs destroying humanity is unfounded? I also realize that the novel is science fiction work, but aren't those novels usually based on elements of truth or possible theories?
What aspect of it is becoming more mainstream? I'm not quite sure people would run at the idea of becoming half machine, unless they're are missing a limb, but going as far as replacing your whole brain with a computer would be a stretch.
Every aspect is becoming more mainstream from Hollywood movies to mainstream news programs. This is now when I would argue its not main stream yet. Fast forward to the 2020's and even if just 20-40% of Anericans merge with the technology, I have read it will be much higher, imagine how main stream it will be even for the people who have no desire to merge with the technology.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Canaan-84
If it does happen I hope they don't destroy the humans who are opposed to that idea. The novel Hyperion goes a bit into this (first sci-fi novel I read that mentions the singularity), fortunately in the novel the humans who embrace the AIs don't destroy those who oppose it. The human faction that dominates the galaxy is called the Hegemony of Man who is counselled by a faction of the Technocore (race of AI intelligences) who predict the future for them, created farcasting technology (instant interstellar teleportation), brain implants that allow humans to log into the datasphere a sort of galactic internet. Although, the Technocore does not give humanity everything, there is no immortality (life spans for the rich are between 200-250 years) since the Technocore seceded from humanity early on and only gives humans the advice and technology that suits them. The Technocore also split into three factions, one wants to annihilate humanity, the second is only concerned with creating the ultimate intelligence and the third wants to leave humanity as it is.
I never considered that last portion though, at the possibility that AIs could form different factions which could possibly work to our benefit. If something like that occurs perhaps the fears of AIs destroying humanity is unfounded? I also realize that the novel is science fiction work, but aren't those novels usually based on elements of truth or possible theories?
You get your information from science fiction movies and novels to much. Life in the future, like today, will be nothing like Hollywood. However with virtual reality you can play in your favorite movie or tv show.
Civilizations broadcast detectable radio signals only for a brief period of time [edit]
It may be that alien civilizations are detectable through their radio emissions for only a short time, reducing the likelihood of spotting them. There are two possibilities in this regard: civilizations outgrow radio through technological advance or, conversely, resource depletion cuts short the time in which a species broadcasts.
The first idea, that civilizations advance beyond radio, is based in part on the "fiber optic objection": the use of high power radio with low-to-medium gain (i.e., non-directional) antennas for long-distance transmission is wasteful of spectrum, yet this "waste" is precisely what makes these systems conspicuous at interstellar distances. Humans are moving to directional or guided transmission channels such as electrical cables, optical fibers, narrow-beam microwave and lasers, and conventional radio with non-directional antennas is increasingly reserved for low-power, short-range applications such as cell phones and Wi-Fi networks. These signals are far less detectable from space. Analog television, developed in the mid-20th century, contains strong carriers to aid reception and demodulation. Carriers are spectral lines that are very easily detected yet do not convey any information beyond their highly artificial nature. Nearly every SETI project is looking for carriers for just this reason, and UHF TV carriers are the most conspicuous and artificial signals from Earth that could be detected at interstellar distances. But advances in technology are replacing analog TV with digital television which uses spectrum more efficiently by eliminating or reducing components such as carriers that make them so conspicuous. Using our own experience as an example, we could set the date of radio-visibility for Earth as December 12, 1901, when Guglielmo Marconi sent radio signals from Cornwall, England, to Newfoundland, Canada.[77] Visibility is now ending, or at least becoming orders of magnitude more difficult, as analog TV is being phased out. And so, if our experience is typical, a civilization remains radio-visible for approximately a hundred years. So a civilization may have been very visible from 1325 to 1483, but we were just not listening at that time. This is essentially the solution, "Everyone is listening, no one is sending."
That was one argument.
Another was a super advanced civilization would start "turning off" stars to save the power, and we should notice things like that (technical def for why that is beyond me).
Course, we could be living in a computer program too...
Every aspect is becoming more mainstream from Hollywood movies to mainstream news programs. This is now when I would argue its not main stream yet. Fast forward to the 2020's and even if just 20-40% of Anericans merge with the technology, I have read it will be much higher, imagine how main stream it will be even for the people who have no desire to merge with the technology.
You get your information from science fiction movies and novels to much. Life in the future, like today, will be nothing like Hollywood. However with virtual reality you can play in your favorite movie or tv show.
Like I said, science fiction is partly based on facts. You don't seem to shy away from that either as the prime directive idea you mentioned earlier comes from Star Trek. I also said that AIs not wanting to help or destroy us is one of many possibilities that not even Ray denies, but he's willing to take the risk in the event that the AIs do turn out to help us and make us immortal.
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