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That is why I keep this thread going and study up on it as much as I can. In my opinion we will reach the singularity between 2030 and 2045 so I order to make the best of it we need to be as knowledgeable about it as we can. This is one time when ignorance is not bliss.
That is why I keep this thread going and study up on it as much as I can. In my opinion we will reach the singularity between 2030 and 2045 so I order to make the best of it we need to be as knowledgeable about it as we can. This is one time when ignorance is not bliss.
That is why I keep this thread going and study up on it as much as I can. In my opinion we will reach the singularity between 2030 and 2045 so I order to make the best of it we need to be as knowledgeable about it as we can. This is one time when ignorance is not bliss.
That's stretching it a bit don't you think? Also, I'm sure there will be people opposed to the idea for what ever reasons (ethical, moral or pure paranoia) which could stall the process. I'll never understand why some people want to create something that surpasses our intelligence. If we look at our own history the outcomes have never been that favorable; it's theorized that humans drove Neanderthals to extinction, and look what colonial powers did to the indigenous populations around the world.
Also, I'm sure there will be people opposed to the idea for what ever reasons (ethical, moral or pure paranoia) which could stall the process. I'll never understand why some people want to create something that surpasses our intelligence. If we look at our own history the outcomes have never been that favorable; it's theorized that humans drove Neanderthals to extinction, and look what colonial powers did to the indigenous populations around the world.
At this point, for better or worse, there is no slowing down or stopping the process or even speeding it up. It will happen sometime between 2030 and 2045. The 2045 date is more the engineering date as it is when 1 computer will be 1 billion times more intelligent then all the humans on the planet today combined where the 2030 date is more the functional date where I think most average people will say the singularity started. The only thing we can do is become as knowledgeable about it as we can so we can be ready.
Now I understand that not many people will be talking about this much in the next 6 years but I think that will change come 2019 when the Singularity becomes mainstream.
Last edited by Josseppie; 05-11-2013 at 04:41 PM..
Speaking of the singularity. This came across my Facebook page and I found the dates very interesting. Now the title says what we will expect in the next 50 years but if you read the article most of the topics they cover will occur in the next 30 years.
Singularity is near. The natural progression of human evolution with a just little twist — technology. In other words, super intelligence will soon become a part of our daily lives and man will be merged with machine. Sure it sounds wild, but just think about what we have been able to achieve over the past 50 years alone. We’ve come a long way from colorless television sets and sending white guys to the moon. These days we’re launching rovers to Mars and 3D printing sh*t out. Now that’s a leap. Just look how addictive consumer behavior is for a new Apple product. Sure you can cop the latest iPhone or Mac, but the newer and improved version will always be released in the next couple of months. Similarly, all technology will keep replacing itself at a faster and faster rate until it all becomes a blur. Everything is becoming more efficient and compact and we can expect to see this trend continue until it isn’t even tangible. Is it that crazy to assume that technological advances will not only continue, but grow and flourish exponentially over the next 50 years? Have you even stopped to think how crazy Google Glass actually is? Or even self-driving cars? We are at the forefront of the tech revolution. And we need not look further than Dr. Raymond Kurzweil, who is leading the way. His insight into what will happen to us over the course of the next half century are humbling to say the least.
Speaking of the singularity. This came across my Facebook page and I found the dates very interesting. Now the title says what we will expect in the next 50 years but if you read the article most of the topics they cover will occur in the next 30 years.
Singularity is near. The natural progression of human evolution with a just little twist — technology. In other words, super intelligence will soon become a part of our daily lives and man will be merged with machine. Sure it sounds wild, but just think about what we have been able to achieve over the past 50 years alone. We’ve come a long way from colorless television sets and sending white guys to the moon. These days we’re launching rovers to Mars and 3D printing sh*t out. Now that’s a leap. Just look how addictive consumer behavior is for a new Apple product. Sure you can cop the latest iPhone or Mac, but the newer and improved version will always be released in the next couple of months. Similarly, all technology will keep replacing itself at a faster and faster rate until it all becomes a blur. Everything is becoming more efficient and compact and we can expect to see this trend continue until it isn’t even tangible. Is it that crazy to assume that technological advances will not only continue, but grow and flourish exponentially over the next 50 years? Have you even stopped to think how crazy Google Glass actually is? Or even self-driving cars? We are at the forefront of the tech revolution. And we need not look further than Dr. Raymond Kurzweil, who is leading the way. His insight into what will happen to us over the course of the next half century are humbling to say the least.
I have not read up on him extensively, but I know of him more for his life extension ideas; I believe he takes upward of 60+ nutritional supplements a day in an effort to extend his life long enough to witness the singularity.
P.S. - he's mentioned a lot on the longecity website (formerly the immortality institute).
At this point, for better or worse, there is no slowing down or stopping the process or even speeding it up. It will happen sometime between 2030 and 2045. The 2045 date is more the engineering date as it is when 1 computer will be 1 billion times more intelligent then all the humans on the planet today combined where the 2030 date is more the functional date where I think most average people will say the singularity started. The only thing we can do is become as knowledgeable about it as we can so we can be ready.
Now I understand that not many people will be talking about this much in the next 6 years but I think that will change come 2019 when the Singularity becomes mainstream.
We'll see, we've seen predictions from past researchers before that never materialized. I think 60 years ago they believed we'd have AI by now as well as flying cars and that has yet to happen.
I still hold the belief that it will never happen for the average citizen. Those in power (and they are whether you choose to believe so or not) will NOT allow anyone except them and their cohorts to use longevity drugs or the components required to reach Singularity.
They stand to lose too much to allow it to happen. Just like Big Oil.
We'll see, we've seen predictions from past researchers before that never materialized. I think 60 years ago they believed we'd have AI by now as well as flying cars and that has yet to happen.
It's like the boy that cried wolf. 60 years ago very little was known about how information technology advanced. Mores law was not developed till the 1960's and it's implications were not fully understood till the late 1980's and early 1990's when the groundbreaking paper was written and presented to NASA that included the singularity. Another pitfall is when futurists talk about anything other then information technology when discussing the future. About a month ago I was reading a article that did just that. I never posted it because while it was fun and sold magazines many of their predictions were nothing more then guess work and most will end up being wrong. The only thing that can be predicted is how information technology will advance and that can now be predicted with 100% accuracy well till the singularity in 2045 as that is when all the models break down and why engineers use that date.
Trust me I know how it sounds. I had the same misgivings 5 years ago when I first heard it but since I have studied it and understand that we can predict how information technology will advance and the implications that will have on society. I, also, understand why we can't speed it up or slow it down. One thing that most people don't realize is today we have supercomputers that are powerful enough to simulate the human brain and we have computers small enough to fit in our body. Now it's only a matter of time till we improve the technology to a point we put computers inside us that intilligent. That will really be in full swing in the 2020's, not that long from now. I turn 40 tomorrow. By the time I turn 50 in 2023 I will be biologically in my early 20s and living in a much different world. That is only 10 years away.
Footnote: The actual timeline I have read is 10-15 years so to be accurate I should say when I'm 50-55. However things I have read tend to have me lean towards the 10 year timeline but I am a optimist so I wanted to post the realist timeline as well as I should be as honest as I can.
Last edited by Josseppie; 05-12-2013 at 09:39 AM..
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