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The idea was that it could be up to about 5 years before we start seeing these cars on the road was from the article. It also stated it could be sooner than that.
Then would you not agree that it will be well before 2040 when the Untied States has 70% of the cars on the road driverless?
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Originally Posted by NightBazaar
Sure, AI is a form of information technology. My point is that if AI advances to become a form of super intelligence, I'd be inclined to think the military and the very wealthy will have first grabs on it well before such advancement takes place. In some ways, that not a very bright prospect to think about. At the same time, it's always possible such advancing technology could fall into the wrong hands making the future look pretty bleak. That's not impossible to potentially happen. Just think about the secret stealth helicopter that crashed during the raid in Bin Laden's compound in Pakistan. Pakistan was pretty unwilling to give up the wreckage. I wouldn't doubt the info that was gleaned could well have been sold to other high bidders. I think you can see the point. It's because of such reasons that I don't think an artificial super intelligence system is something that will be made widely available to the general public any time in the near future apart from some trivial or entertaining applications.
I agree it will be available to the military and wealthy first. Honestly I am part of the 1% (especially if you look at the world population) so I plan on being part of the first or second group that gets it. However I think in a short period of time it will be available for more and more people and by 2045 everyone.
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Originally Posted by NightBazaar
Another point I was getting at is that it's not so easy to optimistically predict when various advances and changes may take place because budgetary cut backs also can and do take place which can and do slow advances. Such technological advances in certain fields could just as easily end up potentially increasing at a snail's pace, or could be completely blocked from the private sector and used entirely for military purposes.
Information technology advances exponentially and it has been proven that you can predict how it will advance with 100% accuracy. However it is the only thing you can predict with any accuracy. Recessions, wars, budget cuts, won't impact it at all.
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Originally Posted by NightBazaar
There are a lot of things that can get in the way of the optimistic scenario of an information singularity creating an idealistic world. I recall a phrase that Memorex used decades ago that said, "There's the ideal... and then there's the real." There's nothing wrong with looking ahead with optimism, but we still have big issues to deal with and need to be resolved in the here and now.
I agree actually. No one knows what life will be like after the singularity. Honestly I am excited and nervous at the same time. Will the singularity get here and be better then I ever imagined or will it get here and I will hate it and miss what life was like now? No one knows not even Ray Kurzweil and he admits that all the time. However it is coming and we can't stop it so I am doing the best I can to be the most prepared I can. Including saving money, its no longer my retirement account but my fountain of youth account, so I can be among the first people to take advantage of reverse aging and so I can merge with the technology so I can keep up with the technology.
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Originally Posted by NightBazaar
Another thing that crossed my mind gives pause for thought. While there's little question that technology is advancing in certain nations, the global population as a whole is something to think about. Not all people are advancing. Many people around the world have little to no access to many of the technological benefits that you and I may take for granted. That's not counting groups of people in extremely remote areas that remain unseen by the rest of the world. The idea of a technological singularity benefiting everyone on the planet is most likely to be separated between the haves and the have nots. I don't think it would be available to everyone. Case in point: we have medications for various ailments, and yet 3-5 million people worldwide become infected with cholera and an estimated 100,000 to 120,000 die from the disease each year. The reason? Contaminated water and lack of access to medical treatment, or money to pay for it. Malaria killed an estimated 660,000 to perhaps 836,000 people in 2010. The reason? Infected mosquitoes and the inability to successfully eradicate the insect without contaminating the environment and causing other problems. WHO | Cholera WHO | Malaria
If technology advances ever greater with the notion of striving to achieve a utopian world, who is most likely to benefit from it? Everyone? Or some?
Did you see the video by Dr. Peter Diamandis when he talks about the coming age of abundance? I think it will be like cell phones. Sure they were expensive at first and not many people had them but today they are common even in third world countries. I think in the 2020's it will start in the first world countries, I plan on being in that group, it will get more common during the 2030's and by 2045 should include the world.
Humans With Amplified Intelligence Could Be More Powerful Than AI
This was a interesting article on the implications of amplifying human intelligence and will lit come before AI. It also, brings up the question about how dangerous will it be. I think these are all areas that need to be discussed so I thought I would post it here.
This is from Oddly Even:
With much of our attention focused the rise of advanced artificial intelligence, few consider the potential for radically amplified human intelligence (IA). It’s an open question as to which will come first, but a technologically boosted brain could be just as powerful — and just as dangerous – as AI.
Then would you not agree that it will be well before 2040 when the Untied States has 70% of the cars on the road driverless?
Information technology advances exponentially and it has been proven that you can predict how it will advance with 100% accuracy. However it is the only thing you can predict with any accuracy. Recessions, wars, budget cuts, won't impact it at all.
If there's no money to fund the research, then yes it will have an affect and we already discussed that Moore's law will slow down around 2015 (even an article you posted mentioned that). I mean aren't the singularity predictions of 2045 partly based on Moore's law? If it really does slow down then perhaps the singularity won't be reached until the 2050s or early 2060s?
If there's no money to fund the research, then yes it will have an affect and we already discussed that Moore's law will slow down around 2015 (even an article you posted mentioned that). I mean aren't the singularity predictions of 2045 partly based on Moore's law? If it really does slow down then perhaps the singularity won't be reached until the 2050s or early 2060s?
So you think that 200,000 thousand years of humans getting smarter exponentially and computers advancing exponentially since 1890 will suddenly begin to end around 2015? Like I have posted I find that interesting.
That being said 2015 is only 2 years away so if we are still posting we can see how Mores law is doing!
Last edited by Josseppie; 05-24-2013 at 09:52 PM..
There will be significant social upheavals before the singularity, which will render the projected singularity moot, since it will occur before the singularity has a chance to fully materialize.
As it approaches, the shift in the social paradigm will take place in much less time than any pre-existing human can adapt to it. So you will have "singularity babies" co-existing with older people whose entire social structure is already locked into a pre-singuarity society. This will create a social rift that will either destroy any semblance of human society long before the singularity occurs, or the human species will have effectively bifurcated into two discrete taxa, one of which will regard the other as livestock.
This has already begun to mainfest itself, with intergenerational continuity become increasingly problematic. People of one generation no longer able (or willing) to communicate with people of another, and therefore human and social wisdom unable to cross this interface. Cultural wheels will have to be reinvented, and all mistakes made anew, with each calamity accelerated.
There will be significant social upheavals before the singularity, which will render the projected singularity moot, since it will occur before the singularity has a chance to fully materialize.
As it approaches, the shift in the social paradigm will take place in much less time than any pre-existing human can adapt to it. So you will have "singularity babies" co-existing with older people whose entire social structure is already locked into a pre-singuarity society. This will create a social rift that will either destroy any semblance of human society long before the singularity occurs, or the human species will have effectively bifurcated into two discrete taxa, one of which will regard the other as livestock.
This has already begun to mainfest itself, with intergenerational continuity become increasingly problematic. People of one generation no longer able (or willing) to communicate with people of another, and therefore human and social wisdom unable to cross this interface. Cultural wheels will have to be reinvented, and all mistakes made anew, with each calamity accelerated.
How people will react to the singularity is something that can not be predicted. There are just to many variables. There will be a group of people, like you, that have the pessimistic view and a group of people, like me, who have the optimistic view. The reality is it will be somewhere in between the two views but no one can say exactly what will happen. Why it's called the singularity.
How people will react to the singularity is something that can not be predicted. There are just to many variables. There will be a group of people, like you, that have the pessimistic view and a group of people, like me, who have the optimistic view. The reality is it will be somewhere in between the two views but no one can say exactly what will happen. Why it's called the singularity.
I'm predicting it anyway. My prerogative, and just as valid as your prediction that there will be a singularity.
I didn't predict a reaction to the singularity, I predicted what would happen in anticipation of it, before it could happen. And I explained why.
I'm predicting it anyway. My prerogative, and just as valid as your prediction that there will be a singularity.
I didn't predict a reaction to the singularity, I predicted what would happen in anticipation of it, before it could happen. And I explained why.
And I explained why it will be wrong. My prerogative. However that is a great example as to why the singularity is not mainstream. Yet. In my opinion once we reach 2019 it will be apparent to most people the singularity is coming. One reason I call the 2020's the pre singularity.
And I explained why it will be wrong. My prerogative. However that is a great example as to why the singularity is not mainstream. Yet. In my opinion once we reach 2019 it will be apparent to most people the singularity is coming. One reason I call the 2020's the pre singularity.
Why do you seem to think that? Even the researchers you follow don't claim that, they believe the pre-singularity will occur between 2030-2044.
As for Moore's law it will continue, but instead of it doing so every 2 years it will be every 3 years. Also, I made a mistake about the 2015 date, it would actually be 2017. I made the mistake because the article you had posted about a new technology that would extend Moore's law was written in 2011. However, Moore's law isn't supposed to slow until the end of this year, so the new technology should hold it until 2016 or 2017 (since that new tech is supposed to make the law hold as it is now for an extra 3-4 years) assuming this new technology is implemented immediately.
Why do you seem to think that? Even the researchers you follow don't claim that, they believe the pre-singularity will occur between 2030-2044. As for Moore's law it will continue, but instead of it doing so every 2 years it will be every 3 years. Also, I made a mistake about the 2015 date, it would actually be 2017. I made the mistake because the article you had posted about a new technology that would extend Moore's law was written in 2011. However, Moore's law isn't supposed to slow until the end of this year, so the new technology should hold it until 2016 or 2017 (since that new tech is supposed to make the law hold as it is now for an extra 3-4 years) assuming this new technology is implemented immediately.
Technically they are right. More's law will come to a end this decade, around 2020 actually, as the integrated circuit will reach a point that it can't be made any smaller. However that will not be the end of the exponential growth of computers we will just move to the next paradigm, 3 D self organizing molecular structures. I do think people will just expand the definition of More's law to computers advancing exponentially so you will still hear that term used. I had thought that is what Intel is working on when they talk about 3D chips. However I had found out they are not. That is yet another good example as to why anyone should not get caught up on one project. As I posted Ray even told me that himself and now I can fully understand why he said that.
As far as information technology advancing exponentially. Ever since I can remember, that goes back to the 1980's, certain people have been saying More's law will come to a end in 5-10 years and listed all these reasons. That never happens in fact not only have computers continued to advance exponentially the rate at which they advance exponentially has itself continued to increase. So now when I read about predictions that information technology will slow its advancement exponentially in the next 5-10 years I chuckle. That is because while I admit its impossible to know how society will deal with the singularity with any accuracy, there are just to many variables, I can say with 100% confidence that information technology will not only continue to advance exponentially but the rate at which it advances will itself continue to get faster.
Now why do I call the 2020's the pre singularity? That is because from what I read by 2019 I think the singularity will become mainstream and in the 2020's most people will recognize its coming. That is because that is the decade people will really begin to merge with the technology.
Look I know where you are and why you are skeptical. I was like you 5 years ago. That is why I don't take it personally or get mad and just explain why this is happening.
Here is some food for thought. For 200,000 years not only have humans been getting smarter exponentially but the rate at which that has occurred has been increasing. During that time there have always been people saying that it can't continue that we are the last generation to see that growth. They always had their reasons and they were always wrong.
Last edited by Josseppie; 05-26-2013 at 09:29 AM..
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Humans With Amplified Intelligence Could Be More Powerful Than AI
