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One of the reasons I want to study the singularity is because I understand the political and social ramifications will be bigger then anyone realizes. In fact the reason its called the singularity is because no one knows what society will be like after 2045.
I will address your questions one by one.
They wont have a choice. Just like the majority of people on the planet have cell phones and are getting connected to the internet once the singularity hits everyone will be included. It will not be like the sci fi movies that show the elite divide. Now I agree at first some of the things I talk about, like reverse aging and turning off the fat gene, will be expensive ( I am lucky because I have the resource to be in the first group) but in time the cost will go down but the singularity is different as it will impact the entire world at the same time.
I think it will. To be honest I think schools (from K-12 to colleges and universities) will be obsolete by the middle part of this century.
It could. That is why we need to make sure that does not happen.
Technological unemployment is I think the biggest problem facing the nation in the next 10 t0 20 years. I posted this video before but I don't think you have seen it and it does a great job of addressing this very concern. Its form 60 Minutes.
At this point it can't be stopped. As the 60 Minutes report says for better or worse its coming.
Does a part of me fear what is coming? Yes uncertainty is always a little scary. However its coming and the only way we can continue to be successful is with knowledge and in time to keep up with the AI we will have to merge with computers. My plan is to be among the first people in the 2020's but I know many people will choose to wait till the 2030's either way its not a long way off.
Again you mention that it would be best to merge with them, but you're assuming the super advanced AI would want to or allow it. As for the politics, I'm speaking of the politics that will ensue beforehand, I can definitely see laws being created that would stop scientists from creating such an intelligent entity. Ray even discusses how corporations could pose a problem when they realize that these super AIs would eventually make money obsolete and you can't deny the influence and power big corporations can wield.
Although, I don't know what to believe anymore, there is a group of scientists that claim that Moore's law will actually slow down or halt in the 2020s, while Transhumanists claim otherwise.
from wiki:
This trend has continued for more than half a century. Sources in 2005 expected it to continue until at least 2015 or 2020.[note 1][12] However, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors has growth slowing at the end of 2013,[13] after which time transistor counts and densities are to double only every three years.
Last edited by Canaan-84; 05-20-2013 at 06:58 PM..
Again you mention that it would be best to merge with them, but you're assuming the super advanced AI would want to or allow it.
AI is separate. We will not merge with the AI we will merge with the computers that will make us as intelligent as the AI. For example we will have computers the size of blood cells in the next 20 years that will first enhance our immune system then enhance our intelligence by merging with our neurons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Canaan-84
As for the politics, I'm speaking of the politics that will ensue beforehand, I can definitely see laws being created that would stop scientists from creating such an intelligent entity. Ray even discusses how corporations could pose a problem when they realize that these super AIs would eventually make money obsolete and you can't deny the influence and power big corporations can wield.
Wont happen. As they said in the 60 minutes piece. There is no stopping it now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Canaan-84
Although, I don't know what to believe anymore, there is a group of scientists that claim that Moore's law will actually slow down or halt in the 2020s, while Transhumanists claim otherwise.
from wiki:
This trend has continued for more than half a century. Sources in 2005 expected it to continue until at least 2015 or 2020.[note 1][12] However, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors has growth slowing at the end of 2013,[13] after which time transistor counts and densities are to double only every three years.
People have been saying that for decades. However as one technology comes to a end another one comes up.
Look at this:
Summary:
Intel has managed to keep pushing Moore’s Law by developing a 3-D transistor that allows the chipmaker to deliver ever smaller chips that will be more powerful, yet consume less energy. The new chip moves Intel ahead of the industry and positions it competitively against ARM.
AI is separate. We will not merge with the AI we will merge with the computers that will make us as intelligent as the AI. For example we will have computers the size of blood cells in the next 20 years that will first enhance our immune system then enhance our intelligence by merging with our neurons.
Wont happen. As they said in the 60 minutes piece. There is no stopping it now.
People have been saying that for decades. However as one technology comes to a end another one comes up.
Look at this:
Summary:
Intel has managed to keep pushing Moore’s Law by developing a 3-D transistor that allows the chipmaker to deliver ever smaller chips that will be more powerful, yet consume less energy. The new chip moves Intel ahead of the industry and positions it competitively against ARM.
As one technology comes to a end another one comes. So Mores law will be here for decades if not centuries to come.
Ray talks about that issue in this clip:
You do know that the article you provided mentions that the new technology would not extend Moore's law by that much:
from your article:
"the news is significant, but not as big of a breakthrough as I hoped for. Bohr said this breakthrough will take Intel down two generations of the process node, from 22 nanometers to 14 nanometers before Intel will hit some more engineering roadblocks. That’s really only three to four years away, which means this doesn’t extend Moore’s Law by all that much."
They're basically relying on a breakthrough in quantum computing which may or may not be ready in 3-4 years when they reach a new road block. And this article is from 2011 so does that mean that Moore's law will only be extended into 2015? Will we have a quantum computer by 2015? I do know that NASA purchased a prototype which was faster in some areas compared to the most powerful computers currently in work, but not much quicker in other areas, seems they have some ways to go.
As for the Show:
So because a program says it can't be stopped, it won't? I guess we'll have to agree to disagree you seem quite unwilling to take into considerations any other scenarios all you chose to believe is what the transhumanists claim. A lot of what we have discussed is barely in the process of being tested or even developed, in fact the blue brain project won't develop a mouse brain until 2014 and it's believed a human one could potentially be achieved by 2023, it's all estimation and speculation at this point; first wait and see how the results turn out before believing it's a done deal simply because Ray or other transhumanists believe it will be done by those dates.
I'm not trying to be rude I simply think all views should be considered not only the transhumanists whose views may be biased.
Last edited by Canaan-84; 05-21-2013 at 12:27 AM..
Everything I have read says that the next paradigm is going to be 3D chips. In fact Intel will introduce the first 3D chip next year called tri-gate.
This is a news release on it:
Intel says we'll see the new technology first in its 22nm Ivy Bridge CPUs, going into mass production in the second half of the year, and it's planning 14nm chips in 2013 and 10nm chips in 2015. Also, 3D transistors won't be limited to the cutting edge -- Intel reps told journalists that they "will extend across the entire range of our product line," including mobile devices.
What I really like is the new technology that will come from it in the next decade. I happen to read this and thought it was great and a big step towards the singularity.
“The result will be ‘cognitive computing,’” says Ruiz—microchips powerful enough to mimic the cognitive processes of the brain. He says applications of artificial intelligence, like the voice recognition on modern smartphones, are rudimentary compared to what’s coming. One application would be a kind of “minder” that watches how you live your life and has access to your calendar, so that it can automatically alert friends when, for example, it’s clear you’ll be late for a meeting. The same technology could be used to shape our own behavior and achieve goals that are difficult when left to our limited capacity to plan and remember—everything from losing weight to learning a new language.
Mores law coming to a end is actually the weakest argument for the singularity not to happen. Mores law is based on a simple principal. We take today's computers and build tomorrows computers so they are twice as fast. When tomorrow comes we use the computers of that day to build the next generation of computers again twice as fast. Sure Paradigms will come to a end and if you look at history some examples are: the vacuum tube, the transistor, and now the integrated circuit. The integrated circuit will come to a end around 2020 and like in the past there will be some people who will say this is the end and computers will slow their advancing. However we will switch to the next Paradigm, even if its not intel, and computers will keep advancing exponentially.
That brings me to the earlier post I made that I wanted you to read. The first one has a video that talks about the new 3D chip and how it will continue mores law.
Now I know this makes me look stubborn and like I don't consider all sides. However years before I knew what the singularity was I knew about mores law and read how it would come to a end and people who said it would not were dreamers. Back then I did not have a strong opinion because I was young but now I am 40 and find it interesting when people still claim computers will suddenly advance slower even though all the data points towards the opposite happening.
Last edited by Josseppie; 05-21-2013 at 07:33 AM..
As far as the blue brain project. Ray was speaking at CSU Pueblo and I asked him about that as they think they will be done by 2019. His response was not to get hung up on one project because its impossible to know for certain if one project will be successful. He works for google and says that about his project. That even if they don't develop ai someone will. So will it be google or the blue brain project or another project who is successful first? That we don't know we just know that it will happen and from what I have read my guess, yes this is just a educated guess on my part, it will be from 2019 to 2023. That advise, also, hold true for Intel. I tend to get hung up on specific projects instead of looking at the general advancement. And it is impossible to know what specific projects will be successful or not.
One thing we do know for certain. By 2019 one computer that costs $1,000 will be fast enough to simulate the human brain.
Last edited by Josseppie; 05-21-2013 at 07:57 AM..
Mores law coming to a end is actually the weakest argument for the singularity not to happen. Mores law is based on a simple principal. We take today's computers and build tomorrows computers so they are twice as fast. When tomorrow comes we use the computers of that day to build the next generation of computers again twice as fast. Sure Paradigms will come to a end and if you look at history some examples are: the vacuum tube, the transistor, and now the integrated circuit. The integrated circuit will come to a end around 2020 and like in the past there will be some people who will say this is the end and computers will slow their advancing. However we will switch to the next Paradigm, even if its not intel, and computers will keep advancing exponentially.
That brings me to the earlier post I made that I wanted you to read. The first one has a video that talks about the new 3D chip and how it will continue mores law.
Now I know this makes me look stubborn and like I don't consider all sides. However years before I knew what the singularity was I knew about mores law and read how it would come to a end and people who said it would not were dreamers. Back then I did not have a strong opinion because I was young but now I am 40 and find it interesting when people still claim computers will suddenly advance slower even though all the data points towards the opposite happening.
I'm not saying that Moore's law coming to an end would stop the singularity, I and others simply think it would slow down the path to singularity. Computers would continue to advance but not as quickly as when Moore's law held.
I'm not saying that Moore's law coming to an end would stop the singularity, I and others simply think it would slow down the path to singularity. Computers would continue to advance but not as quickly as when Moore's law held.
Fair enough.
From what I have read I am 100% certain Mores law will not come to a end around 2020. Sure integrated circuits will come to a end and we will switch to a new paradigm. In fact if you look at the history of computers not only do they advance exponentially but the rate at which they advance is speeding up. For example in 1900 computers doubled every 3 years. In 1960 it was every 2 years. In 2010 it was 11 months. Today it is continuing to drop, I have read it is as low as 6 months now but I think that is a little optimistic. The point is that in time computers will be advancing so fast that the only way we will be able to keep up is by merging with the technology. Personally I think that will really start in the 2020's and why I call it the pre singularity.
This is a short talk on Mores law:
Last edited by Josseppie; 05-21-2013 at 01:47 PM..
I want to add something else to the subject of technology advancing exponentially. We think that is only a modern trait when in fact humans have been getting smarter exponentially for about 200,000 years. The thing is we are just now at the knee of the curve so the changes we see are more dramatic then they were in the past.
To prove my point this is a show on the history of mankind and has nothing to do with the singularity. Fast forward to 4 minutes and it talks about when humans first began to become smarter exponentially.
So for people to say that all of a sudden its going to end now is kind of amusing to me to be honest.
Some news about advancements in self driving vehicles, I assume it's tied in with the singularity?:
The Future Of Driving | The Diane Rehm Show from WAMU and NPR "California moved into the self-driving lane this week. With Google’s help, it passed a law that will allow computer-controlled cars on the road, at least on a test basis. Google has modified and tested a fleet of Toyota Prius hybrids that drive themselves using a range of video and radar technology. And that’s just the beginning. By some estimates, self-driving vehicles will make up 70 percent of the nation’s traffic by the year 2040. Proponents of driverless cars say their widespread use would reduce congestion and give elderly and impaired drivers new freedom. Others worry about safety, liability and privacy issues."
You are correct this is another step towards the singularity. However the 2040 date is way off. In fact I have posted a article where BMW has committed to have a driverless car by 2020. Personally I hope Mercedes takes up the same challenge because I have the ML 500 and prefer Mercedes over BMW. Given how the technology is advancing exponentially I don't think it will take 20 years to get to 70%.
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