San Antonio Weather Thread (zip code, comfortable, house)

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by Mom2Feebs

but I heard on TWC that a high should push the track back north tomorrow. Do you anticipate that, Anthony?

Don jogged south tonight, so even if he jogs back to the north, he's running out of water. I don't see Don going north of Baffin Bay anymore. The latest jog even puts Northern Mexico at a risk for a landfall again.



As I said earlier, the heaviest rains will be about 50-100 miles from the center. A landfall south of Corpus will put us outside of that range, so while I think we'll still get rain, it won't be nearly as much as we need.

Smaller tropical systems are usually much harder predict both track and intensity-wise since they tend to be far more sensitive to surrounding environmental changes. Much like a small boat is more sensitive to waves in the ocean than a ship, or a small plane more sensitive to wind changes than a jet. Since smaller tropical cyclones are more sensitive to it's atmospheric environment, small scale pockets of winds or dry air that are impossible for us to detect/factor into our models continuously affect the storm's strength and motion.

Another factor that is not making forecasting easy is that Don has never been a very organized system. In order for a tropical cyclone to intensify, the structure of the storm must be perfect, or vertically stacked (like a layered cake wedding cake). If the storm is off balance, then it will collapse on itself and have to regenerate on it's own. Regenerations occur where the pressure is lowest (usually in areas with the highest storm activity), so a new center of low pressure could develop. If the center moves, then the entire storm shifts around that new center, causing the projected path to shift as well. We've seen that happen a couple of times already with Don as well.

That said, I again am having serious doubts that San Antonio will be close enough to get the heaviest rains. This will be a South Texas (and maybe even Northern Mexico) event. We'll see some shower and thunderstorm activity, but the heaviest activity will be south of town. Don is running out of land, and Don will have to acquire a really strong long lasting northward component that I find highly improbable in order for the core to move over San Antonio.

[franklin9150]

While this looks like a huge missed opportunity for San Antonio, at least parts of Texas will get beneficial rain out of don.

[rd2007]

Hoping for a last minute save still and it looks like a little tiny bump to the north..

[AnthonySA]

Tropical Storm Don is now just hours away from landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas. The storm should make landfall sometime this afternoon, or later this evening. Outer rain bands from Don are already starting to approach the South Texas coast. As of the 10 AM CDT update, Don has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is showing some signs of strengthening. I suspect this storm will max out between 55-60 mph prior to reaching land.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the Texas/Mexico border to Matagorda, Texas and extending inland through much of South Texas including Laredo. Some brief gusts to tropical storm strength will be possible in these areas, however, sustained tropical storm force winds will be limited to areas within 30 miles of the center of this storm. Once inland, the center of circulation will continue to track towards the west-northwest passing just north of Laredo before weakening into a Tropical Depression.

The main impact with Don will be rainfall. Again, the heaviest rainfall will be within about 50 to 100 miles north and east of the main center of circulation, and to a lesser extent, about 30-50 miles to the south and west. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches will be possible in these areas, with locally heavier amounts. Additionally, isolated tornadoes will be possible across South Texas today and tomorrow in some of the outer bands of the storm.

San Antonio will be too far north to receive the heaviest rain. Therefore, I expect it will remain mostly sunny today, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm primarily east of town. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may move inland late tonight, increasing in aerial coverage by tomorrow. I expect local rainfall total in San Antonio to generally remain below an inch this weekend.

[Camper1]

Oh well, maybe next time.

Thanks for posting Anthony.

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by Camper1

Oh well, maybe next time.

Thanks for posting Anthony.

No prob, thanks for reading

[johnts71]

we need 15+ in of rain the get out of this drought

[Camper1]

Originally Posted by johnts71

we need 15+ in of rain the get out of this drought

but not all at one time!!

[DexterCat]

Originally Posted by Camper1

but not all at one time!!

oh hell no! please dont rain 15+ inches all at once. even though i have an SUV that can handle it, id rather not drive in that kind of weather!

new maps ive looked at show SA getting rain from don is possible, though i wonder just how much it will be

[AnthonySA]

This storm has really fallen apart. Of all the tropical cyclones I've tracked, this radar presentation is among the worst.

It looks like Don tried to relocate his center of circulation about 100 miles south to near Brownsville. If that's the case, he's already made landfall in Mexico. What's more likely is that this storm has completely fallen apart. Either way, the most we can hope for for rain in San Antonio is something to fire up with the enhanced Gulf moisture in place.