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Russia can win if Ukraine does not have help from the West, especially from the USA. The six months without aids from the US proved that. Ukraine was on the verge of losing until aids arrived.
The arrival of new aids changed the situation in Ukraine's favor almost immediately. ATACMS have been knocking out Russian military assets left and right. This shows that with aids Ukraine can definitely win.
But depending on who wins the US Presidential Election, either Putin wins or Ukraine still has a fighting chance.
What gives me the most difficulty is picturing just what a Russian loss would look like. It's hard to picture Russia just giving up Crimea, because that is such a huge step backward for them. Military effectiveness and trade would both be diminished.
And a Russian win?... Total occupation and rule of Ukraine? I just don't see that at all. They have made enemies of Ukrainians, to the point there will be no Russian in uniform safe anywhere in Ukraine.
And what would a Ukrainian loss look like? Just go back to pre-invasion status, where Russia has Crimea? Surely Ukraine would not agree to that since Russia would just try the same thing all over again.
Russian propaganda is such that Russian people support the war, believing Ukraine will eventually just become part of Russia.
The one thing I can see, is a future Russia much diminished from today's Russia. The demographic reality is, Russia will shrink for many, many years. The Chinese stand there watching, knowing (or hoping) the day will come when Russia will have to abandon its interests in Siberia, which the Chinese very much want.
In 1867 America bought Alaska from Russia. There may come a day when China buys Siberia from Russia.
dealing with Ukrainian economy that was already bankrupt as it was back in 2014, with its depressive regions, with its poverty, with gas supply for internal price in Russia, with hateful population in the Western part of the country, and on and on.
The only reason they were bankrupt in 2014: Russia's Puppet Yanukovych looted their treasury.
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What gives me the most difficulty is picturing just what a Russian loss would look like. It's hard to picture Russia just giving up Crimea, because that is such a huge step backward for them. Military effectiveness and trade would both be diminished.
It would be a big loss, and that is what I am hoping for. I am hoping Trump will convince them that giving up and going home is in their best interest. Of course, Putin's life expectancy, after such a loss would be dimished...
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And a Russian win?... Total occupation and rule of Ukraine? I just don't see that at all. They have made enemies of Ukrainians, to the point there will be no Russian in uniform safe anywhere in Ukraine.
Russia would take most of the land East of The River (and possibly Kyiv), along with the Southern shore, possibly to Odesa, maybe even to Moldova.
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The one thing I can see, is a future Russia much diminished from today's Russia. The demographic reality is, Russia will shrink for many, many years.
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I am curious. Like you, I see Russia being diminished for a time, but why do you say "many, many years"?
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In 1867 America bought Alaska from Russia. There may come a day when China buys Siberia from Russia.
Russia can win if Ukraine does not have help from the West, especially from the USA.
You’ve been saying this for 2 years.
All we’ve got in that time is $100+ billion in taxpayer funds down the drain, Russia circumventing Western sanctions, Russia forming a defense alliance with North Korea, China, and Iran, and Russia believing its winning the war.
Then the woke claimed Russia “won’t stop at Ukraine.”
So its clear now that either America must be the entire world’s police, or Russia isn’t quitting. Which one is it?
All we’ve got in that time is $100+ billion in taxpayer funds down the drain, Russia circumventing Western sanctions, Russia forming a defense alliance with North Korea, China, and Iran, and Russia believing its winning the war.
Actually, most of us are not really sure how much we have sent over there, and how much has been stolen right here at home.
We do know that only about two thirds of what was authorized, was sent.
The Deep State has been slow rolling this, to keep Ukraine handicapped.
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Then the woke claimed Russia “won’t stop at Ukraine.”
It isn't just the "woke," it was, in the past, a given.
Now, I don't know if Russia has the reserves to push into Estonia, since the war has weakened them.
OTOH, if they get what they came for in Ukraine, they will have the resources to rebuild.
Then Estonia will not be safe.
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So its clear now that either America must be the entire world’s police, or Russia isn’t quitting. Which one is it?
What gives me the most difficulty is picturing just what a Russian loss would look like. It's hard to picture Russia just giving up Crimea, because that is such a huge step backward for them. Military effectiveness and trade would both be diminished.
And a Russian win?... Total occupation and rule of Ukraine? I just don't see that at all. They have made enemies of Ukrainians, to the point there will be no Russian in uniform safe anywhere in Ukraine.
And what would a Ukrainian loss look like? Just go back to pre-invasion status, where Russia has Crimea? Surely Ukraine would not agree to that since Russia would just try the same thing all over again.
Russian propaganda is such that Russian people support the war, believing Ukraine will eventually just become part of Russia.
The one thing I can see, is a future Russia much diminished from today's Russia. The demographic reality is, Russia will shrink for many, many years. The Chinese stand there watching, knowing (or hoping) the day will come when Russia will have to abandon its interests in Siberia, which the Chinese very much want.
In 1867 America bought Alaska from Russia. There may come a day when China buys Siberia from Russia.
I can't see Russia ending the war without getting Crimea unless they fall into chaos like after WWI. Crimea is kind of their red line. I don't see Ukraine being happy with the 2014 lines. Donetsk has a lot of the mineral wealth of the country. Ukraine's border with Russia would be a lot shorter if they gave up Luhansk. It is kind of a salient into Russia. But they certainly aren't going to accept Russian occupation of the oblasts of Kherson and Zaphorizia.
The only reason they were bankrupt in 2014: Russia's Puppet Yanukovych looted their treasury.
Is it what Ukrainian propaganda told you?
Then where are his yachts and mansions around the world?
Truth to be told, those sponsored by US that came after Yanukovich, were much, much worse in this respect.
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It would be a big loss, and that is what I am hoping for. I am hoping Trump will convince them that giving up and going home is in their best interest. Of course, Putin's life expectancy, after such a loss would be dimished...
Trump is intelligent enough to understand that for Russians, giving up Crimea ( i.e. giving up that port that Russians built back in 1784 or so) is direct hit on their military capabilities and national security.
Therefore he KNOWS what's realistic and what's not, and Crimea won't be a bargaining chip, that much is clear, even if Zelensky ( or whoever might replace him) will stand on his head.
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Russia would take most of the land East of The River (and possibly Kyiv), along with the Southern shore, possibly to Odesa, maybe even to Moldova.
At this point, I don't see them going anywhere beyond Zaporozhie/Kherson regions ( which assure connection between Crimea and Russia by the land routs.) Plus Donetsk and Lugansk regions of course.
At this point, I don't see them going anywhere beyond Zaporozhie/Kherson regions ( which assure connection between Crimea and Russia by the land routs.) Plus Donetsk and Lugansk regions of course.
In terms of land acquisition, the Russians achieved some 50% of this objective in the first few weeks of this phase of the war (start date no later than 2014). Acquiring the western half of Donetsk and the northern half of the Zaporozhie/Kherson oblasts has proven to be a tough nut to crack.
But the other objective has been to give the westerners indigestion from swallowing up western ukraine and a black eye from trying to swallow up eastern ukraine.
My impression is that the Russians have less than 50% chance of acquiring territory along the entire length of the Dnieper river and the city of Odessa and part of its oblast, but a high chance of acquiring all of Donetsk oblast.
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