Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Professor Mearsheimer who predicted years ago that the US and its allies would get Ukraine invaded by Russia thinks Ukraine is going to be a toxic rump state.
John Mearsheimer predicted it would never happen:
So says Statesmen in this article from Sep, '23
Quote:
The biggest attack on a European state since the Second World War, it was an invasion that in articles and lectures Mearsheimer had confidently predicted wouldn’t happen, having assumed that Vladimir Putin had absorbed the lessons of American misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. “I was surprised,” Mearsheimer, 75, told me from his office in Chicago.
He was wrong. Very loudly wrong.
So no one cares what Mearsheimer thinks, or even what a "toxic rump state" might be.
Professor Mearsheimer who predicted years ago that the US and its allies would get Ukraine invaded by Russia thinks Ukraine is going to be a toxic rump state.
Participation in the MAP helped prepare the seven countries that joined NATO in the second post-Cold War round of enlargement in 2004 (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) as well as Albania and Croatia, which joined in April 2009. Montenegro, which joined the MAP in December 2009, became a member of the Alliance in June 2017. The Republic of North Macedonia, which had been participating in the MAP since 1999, joined NATO in March 2020.
Currently, Bosnia and Herzegovina is participating in the MAP, having been invited to do so in 2010.
Note the highlighted.
Does Poutine know how MAP works? Yes.
Does Poutine know Montenegro took 8 yrs? Yes.
Does Poutine know Republic of Macedonia took 21 yrs? Yes.
Does Poutine know Bosnia and Herzegovina are still in process since 2010? Yes.
In other words, not even the West know how long each candidate could take. Look at how Turkey held up Sweden's membership. Usually, the MAP require candidate to settle each other's issues before full membership. So when we talk about 'issues' we are talking about major contentions such as Turkey and Greece over Cypress. Turkey held up Sweden's membership because Sweden once criticized Turkey's human rights policies. Same for Hungary against Sweden. Does Poutine know these? Yes.
Does Poutine know that France, Germany, Spain, and Italy objected to Ukraine back in 2008? Yes.
3. The NATO Building Integrity policy, described in this document, draws upon experience gained through the implementation of the Building Integrity Programme launched in 2007 by the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. The NATO Building Integrity Programme is part of NATO’s commitment to strengthen integrity, transparency and accountability in the defence and related security sector.
5.1. Building Integrity is a key element of Alliance activities. The importance of implementing measures to improve integrity building, anti-corruption and good governance applies to NATO, Allies and partners alike.
Does Poutine know how corrupt is Ukraine and that the depth of corruption WILL delay Ukraine's membership? Absolutely he knows. Currently, Ukraine's corruption is the primary motivation for the US to stop aid.
Simply put, Mearsheimer is off base in his argument that NATO expansion to include Ukraine was the primary motivation for invasion. Does Mearshemier know all the above questions? Yes.
Poutine believe he has all the time to take Ukraine and all he has to do is wait for the opportunity. A physically diminished US president. A disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan that abandoned allies. A country still in COVID recovery. A country in cultural upheaval over something as silly as sex and gender. A country in harsh political divide. Not potential NATO membership for Ukraine when Ukraine could not even make it into MAP step one.
Ukraine and the West in general were fortunate that it was the Russian military's incompetence and overestimation of itself that produced the current stalemate in Ukraine.
Professor Mearsheimer who predicted years ago that the US and its allies would get Ukraine invaded by Russia thinks Ukraine is going to be a toxic rump state.
Ukraine IS a toxic state. It is special ops project and, current "government" has zero legitimacy, as it usurped power in coup.
Fifth column in Russia did great job, letting this happen. Just like they let happen loss of the trans Caucasus - Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. That's Russia's naked underbelly right there.
John Mearsheimer predicted it would never happen:
So says Statesmen in this article from Sep, '23
He was wrong. Very loudly wrong.
So no one cares what Mearsheimer thinks, or even what a "toxic rump state" might be.
You're conflating 2 things.
He 100% predicted years ago that the US would push Russia into invading Ukraine.
He was wrong on the timing.
He correctly pointed out that the US was ignoring Russia verbally expressing red lines. The US also puts out red lines. Seems like it would be valuable to be honest about how we got here as opposed to thinking Russia randomly attacked out of the blue and the US had no role in baking this mess.
It is. The front line indicates stalemate.
The difference is in the air war and in the Black Sea. That is not a stalemate. Aircraft and ships lost by Russia cannot be replaced. For that matter, mechanized equipment lost by Russia cannot be replaced at the rate they are being lost. Men can be replaced on both sides. Ukraine is still receiving new equipment.
I give the advantage to Ukraine. They keep pulling back, killing Russians as they go, and Russia keeps moving forward, capturing destroyed and abandoned territory. But what, exactly, are Russians moving toward?
These contested areas are rubble. Just utter destruction. There are mines everywhere, dead, and destroyed Russian equipment. There are dead tanks blocking roads. And good luck clearing that while anyones in artillery range.
So no one cares what Mearsheimer thinks, or even what a "toxic rump state" might be.
Nobody cares what that homer idiot Peter Zeihan thinks. Mearsheimer was surprised at the timing but not that Russia was put in this position.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
That's exactly my view.
You used partial quote (Changing the meaning) and then agreed with that partial quote. To think Russia attacked 'randomly' and the US had 'no role', is ludicrous, but it is a theme western media is trying to pump. I don't believe you actually believe this.
Stalemate means no significant movement of the frontlines, over extensive period of time. Check the current frontline, vs. where it was in 2014, soon after the initial declaration of a "Donetsk People's Republic". To me, that's stalemate.
The irony for both Russia and Ukraine, is that if somehow today there were a magical peace-agreement to freeze the border exactly where the front-lines stand right now, then both sides would be keenly disappointed. Russia would have gained almost nothing, since its informal foray into Ukraine in 2014. Ukraine would have gained almost nothing, relative to just having renounced the territory seized/liberated/annexed (choose your preferred terminology) by separatists in 2014.
There is no stalemate as RAF are moving forward, in their by now well developed steam roller tactic, on MULTIPLE fronts. AFU is abandoning its left bank position at Kurakhovo. RAF attacks at Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Novomikhailovka, Chasov Yar, Rabotino, Maryinka, Berdychi, Orlovka, Krasno Gorovka, Pervomayskoe, there is no stalemate.
There is methodical, in the best WW1 traditions of how to breach positional defence, swinging of the AFU defences.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
