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I think it is going to happen actually. At least part of it.
You are correct that I don't know that, but if pro-Ukrainian think-tanks are admitting 1.4:1 casualties for Ukraine while defending Bakhmut, this counteroffensive has to be exponentially worse.
Have you not noticed a lot of pessimism lately? You know, people talking about frozen conflicts? Poland's president saying Ukraine is drowning? Josh Hawley halfway mentioning the total ****show in Congress? Have you not noticed a shift in mood at all? Or are you still huffing Robert Kagan's bull****?
No, this has actually been one of the best weeks of the war for Ukraine ALL Year.
The Russian military is always in a mess, that's the problem.
Even in a mess, they can still be a threat. They. Have. Endless. Cannon. Fodder.
Why do you think Sweden and Finland immediately joined NATO?
Every day that passes, Russia is still occupying Ukraine, still laying down landmines, still getting help from Iran, NK, and China, and still recruiting poor people to fight.
In the great Russian victory in the battle of Kursk that ended German military advances in the east in WWII, the Russians had close to a 3 to 1 advantage in numbers and lost nearly double the number of men. But the Germans lost nearly half their force and were never a threat to turn the tide again.
Well the Ukrainians learned from the 2020 Azeri-Armenian War and the use of Turkish drones.
Even the Russians are using drones. They have been a game changer on the battlefield and will rewrite our understanding of how to conduct a 21st century war.
There are no military analysts that get wars 100% correct. It's the nature of the fog of war. But finding a good informed analyst goes a long way. I like Kofman because he grew up in Soviet era Ukraine and has made it his life work to study the Russian military, this is his area of expertise. He does not paint a pollyannish view of Ukraine and most of his analysis are very sobering. He simply understands the inner workings of eastern Europe because he's from there and he has visited the front lines on three separate occasions. He also has connections into this theater that he remains silent on until opsec has been assured. ISW is a great daily resource especially on their maps. Kofman has butt heads with ISW on their assessments (not their maps) on several occasions, this is good because they are in competition to get it right, not make Ukraine look good. Both institutions will call themselves out when they made a miscalculation, that's what professionals do. Both institutions rely on other analyst they trust.
Michael Kofman pointing out the Russians placing their units on the forward side of their defense lines has now made it into the MSM. And every analyst out there is trying to make sense of something so hamhanded. Russia cannot afford this attrition especially if they actually occupy the defense lines that were made to prevent this from happening. I could go on. When following something of this nature the devil is in the details. Russia's biggest prooblem is that they only have a handful of units that are capable of fighting and they are now being attrited fighting In Front of their defensive positions. Lets see how it turns out.
From what I understand, the Russia strategy since the beginning was to hold the "grey area" until it was no longer advantageous, then pull back into more defensible lines while hitting Ukrainian troop movements with artillery, tanks, ATGM's, helicopters, snipers, etc. Then to clear out the few Ukrainians that remain in the trenches, houses, etc.
The gist is that by defending in the grey area, Russian losses are higher than they would be if they defended only from fortified positions. But if they didn't defend the grey area, they wouldn't be able to uproot Ukraine from whatever gains they make.
That assessment is correct, but no sane person believes Russia is taking more losses than Ukraine. I never even see western estimates for Ukrainian losses in the counteroffensive because they don't want to tell the truth, nor do they want to lie and soil their reputation. So they rant constantly about Russian losses while claiming that any day now Russia will run out of soldiers. Just like they've been claiming Russia is almost out of everything else since March 2022.
What I don't understand is why you accept and repeat these pronouncements without any skepticism. That doesn't mean Kofman is lying. Russia is in fact being attrited. But Ukraine is far more. If the goal is to weaken Russia, this war is accomplishing it. If the goal is a Ukrainian victory, that will not happen.
Ukraine is drowning.
Last edited by Redshadowz; 09-25-2023 at 12:15 PM..
Nobody with a brain is talking about invading Mexico. Maybe the MacGregor types that you like to quote. Black Jack isn't heading to Mexico.
Rofl, did you watch the video? There are tons of people calling to invade Mexico. Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis. Hell, Dan Crenshaw has already introduced legislation for an "Authorization for the use of military force"(AUMF) to go after drug cartels in Mexico.
There are some Ukrainians who may be pro-Russian, but the region, like the rest of Ukraine, voted for independence and separation from Russia in the last legitimate election on the issue. Even Crimea voted to be part of an independent Ukraine.
They voted for independence from the Soviet Union. You could argue that the Soviet Union was Russia, but it was obviously more than just Russia, and it was communist, and it was bankrupt. Which is the reason Crimea also voted for independence.
At that time, they believed independence from the Soviet Union would make Ukraine rich. Instead, capitalist reforms deindustrialized and impoverished Ukraine. Ukraine went from being one of the richest countries in the Soviet Union, to being the poorest ex-Soviet country.
Regardless, allegiances in Ukraine are complex. But generally-speaking, Eastern Ukraine is pro-Russia, regardless of what box they checked for ethnicity on the census. The split in Ukraine most closely resembles the 2010 election map. Which itself almost perfectly mirrors the linguistic map.
From what I understand, the Russia strategy since the beginning was to hold the "grey area" until it was no longer advantageous, then pull back into more defensible lines while hitting Ukrainian troop movements with artillery, tanks, ATGM's, helicopters, snipers, etc. Then to clear out the few Ukrainians that remain in the trenches, houses, etc.
The gist is that by defending in the grey area, Russian losses are higher than they would be if they defended only from fortified positions. But if they didn't defend the grey area, they wouldn't be able to uproot Ukraine from whatever gains they make.
That assessment is correct, but no sane person believes Russia is taking more losses than Ukraine. I never even see western estimates for Ukrainian losses in the counteroffensive because they don't want to tell the truth, nor do they want to lie and soil their reputation. So they rant constantly about Russian losses while claiming that any day now Russia will run out of soldiers. Just like they've been claiming Russia is almost out of everything else since March 2022.
What I don't understand is why you accept and repeat these pronouncements without any skepticism. That doesn't mean Kofman is lying. Russia is in fact being attrited. But Ukraine is far more. If the goal is to weaken Russia, this war is accomplishing it. If the goal is a Ukrainian victory, that will not happen.
Ukraine is drowning.
When following this war I have one goal in mind....what is the reality on the ground. That's why I read and post from multiple analysts, many who don't totally agree with each other. And Russian sources are just pure propaganda because if they weren't the journalist would get thrown out a window. And I don't think I have ever said in a post what the ratio of losses are between Russia and Ukraine unless it was an expressed opinion of an analyst. When Russia was attacking Bakmhut this winter, yea Russia was attriting forces at a greater ratio than Ukraine...because...they were attacking.
Now I have pointed out that Russia's approach is super costly by putting their defenses on the forward side of the defense lines. And yes this could be a devestating mistake for Russia if they are over estimating their forces that are capable of fighting. And I think that is a point you miss. Yes Russia has more population and men than Ukraine, but what I don't here you talk about and has been observed by countless analyst is given the size of the army in Ukraine only a handful of Russian units are capable of fighting. Untrained Mobiks are not that great of a threat. So if Ukraine is attriting Russian forces that can fight there really is nobody to replace them other than an untrained Mobiks. So I don't buy into your ratios it's more complicated than that, and Russia is having to pull their fighting units to fill the holes. It appears Russia doesn't have the resources to employ Putins strategy. We will see.
Last edited by JohnBoy64; 09-25-2023 at 01:38 PM..
And here is a thread about the "elastic" defense strategy I posted. Keeping it real
Quote:
The Russians are still able to conduct an organized defence. Their lines are bending, but not breaking. The salient at the Robotyne-Verbove area is of course a problem for them, but they seem to have enough resources to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. 8/
#Ukrainian forces may be able to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the southern frontline if several key assumptions hold. A significant Ukrainian success will be more likely if
#1 on this list. I don't think the Russian's have the combat regardless of their number of men.
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